Malaysia after regime change - PAS and Islam

As Malaysia prepares for its 13^th general elections, due no later than April 2013, the long-standing competitive authoritarian regime will face one of its most difficult tests. The 2008 elections dealt a surprise blow to the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN), and ever since, Prime Minister Najib’s government has struggled to protect its now-fragile majority. After four years of renewed opposition activism, rumours of defection from UMNO (the United Malays National Organisation), and the recent acquittal of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysians will have the chance to vote the BN out of office once and for all.
In a post-BN Malaysia, observers will closely monitor the role of Islam in public life. Much of what happens will depend on the shape of the government that follows. In terms of the composition of a post-BN government, two outcomes seem most likely: (1) a multi-ethnic Pakatan Rakyat-based (PR) coalition in which PAS (Parti Islam SeMalaysia/Pan Malaysian Islamic Party), PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat/People’s Justice Party), and the DAP (Democratic Action Party) all participate, perhaps along with one or more East Malaysian parties; or (2) an UMNO-PAS “Muslim-Malay” coalition, again perhaps involving the cooperation of one or more East Malaysian parties. Either way, PAS—an explicitly Islamic party—will be part of the government.

That PAS would advocate for a greater role for Islam in Malaysian public life is undeniable. PAS describes its goals as follows:

• Memperjuangkan wujudnya di dalam negara ini sebuah masyarakat dan pemerintahan yang terlaksana di dalamnya nilai-nilai hidup Islam dan hukum-hukumnya menuju keredhaan Allah. [Fighting to create a society and government that is run according to Islamic principles and the laws which please Allah]
• Mempertahankan Kesucian Islam serta kemerdekaan dan kedaulatan negara. [Defending the sanctity of Islam alongside independence and national sovereignty.]

The prospect of PAS in government alone is worrying for those many Malaysians (both Muslims and non-Muslims) who express concern about the Islamisation of Malaysian politics and society. Moreover, a PR-based government would struggle to balance PAS’s goals with the DAP’s largely non-Muslim constituency. That would make an UMNO-PAS alliance all the more attractive to PAS, while UMNO, whose membership is not restricted to Muslims but is overwhelming Muslim anyway, would likely not hesitate to return to power with a new coalition partner.

Questions about PAS after the BN may reflect the concerns that many non-Muslims in Malaysiahave about the role of religion in public life, and Malaysia’s Hindu minority in particular has cause for grievance on this account. But this obscures the corrosive effects that six decades of ethnic partisanship have had on the prospects for Malaysian democracy. It is a mistake, in other words, to focus narrowly on PAS, or broadly on Islam itself, when anticipating Islam in a post-BN Malaysian political order. Doing so confuses the potential consequences of PAS in government with the factors that have contributed both to PAS’s popularity and to the current state of Islam in Malaysian public life.

PAS itself has not played a major role in the Islamisation of Malaysian politics or Malaysian society. Rather, it was Malay politicians in the pre-independence period (the very same group that went on to found UMNO) who enshrined Islam in the constitution and legally defined Malay-ness with reference to Islam. This was done not in the name of Islam, but to protect what were perceived to be “Malay interests” (see for example A History of Malaysia, pp. 256-257). After independence, with communism illegal, social democracy discredited (through its historical affiliation with a largely Chinese opposition party), liberalism cast as antithetical to Malaysian values, multiculturalism or pan-ethnic solidarity discouraged through the party system, and the bumi/non-bumi split underlying every aspect of social and economic policy, the only “Malay” alternative to UMNO’s Malay platform was PAS’s Islamist platform.

Today, in a society in which economic function and demographic characteristics such as urbanisation no longer distinguish Malays from non-Malays as easily as they once did, core issues such as religion have a new importance for voters whose political identities are constructed through an ethnic framework.

The strategic logic of political competition in Malaysia’s plural society therefore rewards parties seeking Malay votes when they appeal to the characteristics that define Malays in opposition to non-Malays. It should not surprise anyone that when Malay voters find UMNO politicians wanting, they are likely to vote for the only opposition party whose political outlook has not been labelled as “un-Malaysian” for the past half century.

Facing this, non-exclusivist opposition parties such as the DAP and PKR have struggled to transcend the ethnic paradigm in Malaysian politics. The choice for non-Malay, non-Muslim voters has been whether to cast their lot with their own regime-allied (and ethnically-constituted) parties, the “un-Malaysian” multiethnic opposition, or the Islamist PAS.
The fundamental challenge for public life in a post-BN Malaysia is not Islam, it is ethnicity’s dominant role in defining Malaysians’ political identity, and this challenge is just as pressing today as it would be if a new government with PAS comes to power following the upcoming elections. Of course, PAS’s explicitly religious goals are important to note, but there are few things that it could do in government that are not already within UMNO’s capacity today.

UMNO has presided over—and its campaign messages and public policies have encouraged—the rise of Islam in public life. It is tempting today to see what Judith Nagata called the “reflowering of Malaysian Islam” as merely a local instance of a global Muslim awakening, but this misses the very politics of Islamic politics in Malaysia.

In the Malaysian context, the rise of religion is the unavoidable consequence of the politicisation of ethnicity. A PAS-led government might go further than the BN has in prosecuting perceived insults to Islam, or in expanding the domain of Islamic family law, but such worries already mark Malaysian public life. The religious issues facing Malaysia are far deeper than the ruling party’s religious outlook, and having PAS in government is best understood as the outcome of decades of social change and religious conflict rather than a possible independent cause of future religious tensions.

It is reasonable to wonder what Malaysian politics would look like with an avowedly Islamist party like PAS in government, but as always, the meaning of Islam in Malaysian public life cannot be separated from the dominance of ethnicity in Malaysian politics.

The “solution” to the “problem” of Islam in Malaysian politics—if one believes that Islam is indeed a problem—is the same as the solution to many of the other issues that face contemporary Malaysian society: a post-ethnic movement (not merely a multi-ethnic one) in which Malaysians identify, assemble, and act as Malaysians rather than as representatives of ethnic groups in a zero-sum competition for power and resources.
This is what many hope that a PR government would mean, and in rhetorical terms, that is what Najib’s 1Malaysia campaign promises. A recent article in the Economist suggests that many young Malaysians would welcome such a post-ethnic politics. But they will have to wait, for Malaysian politics as BN-versus-PR restates the ethnic politics framework without moving past it.







Thomas Pepinsky is assistant professor of government at Cornell University, Ithaca, NY,USA. His work focuses on comparative politics and international political economy, with a special focus on contemporary issues in island Southeast Asia. His interests include the politics of finance, authoritarianism, Islam, and finding a way to move Ithaca to the tropics.

Malaysia after regime change - With or Without Barisan Nasional: Regime Change and Identity Politics in Post Authoritarian Malaysia

Why are you interested in Malaysia? If asked such a question, the majority of foreign observers, scholars and students of Malaysian politics would most likely mention ethnicity, religion (Islam) or what is broadly categorised as “identity politics.” Even if identity is not their primary interest, not one of them is likely to deny that collective identities are a crucial aspect of contemporary Malaysian politics dominated by the multi-ethnic ruling coalition, National Front (Barisan Nasional, BN).

What will Malaysian politics look like if BN ever lost power? Would identity, either ethnic or religious, recede from politics if the opposition, People’s Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat, PR), came to power? Or would it fuel politicisation of identity even further to threaten otherwise relatively oppressive but peaceful inter-communal relations?

Possible answers to these questions in part depend on the type of regime that the opposition coalition—comprised of the People’s Justice Party (PKR), Democratic Action Party (DAP), and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS)—wishes to establish. The opposition pact was first and foremost formed and sustained to challenge and bring down the authoritarian rule of BN where the Malay-Muslim based United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is dominant. The establishment of some form of democratic rule is their next goal. Indeed, their platform, “Ubah Sekarang, Selamatkan Malaysia! (Change Now, Save Malaysia!)”, published in the run-up to the 2008 elections emphasizes the following initiatives: expansion of democratic rights and institutions such as independent judiciary; creation of a just and fair society that provides all people with equal opportunities regardless of ethnicity, religion and culture; elimination of corruption and other unfair and discriminatory practices that hinder equal and fair distribution of public resources; growth with equity; and elimination of undemocratic apparatuses and practices, most notably the Internal Security Act (ISA). The absence of aforementioned initiatives under the current regime provided a common ground for opposition parties to come and fight together, leading to their impressive electoral ascendancy in 2008. The question remains however: Is the PR platform sufficient to convince their multi-ethnic constituencies to oust BN from power to build a new democratic Malaysia?

Complication about Malaysia’s regime change and democratic transition is derived from the very nature of the current regime. It is not only authoritarian in a conventional sense of the term, but also highly ethnocentric and illiberal, thereby denying equal rights and freedom to minority citizens based on their ethnic/religious identities. Under this regime, the majority Malay (and therefore Muslim) population have gained an unparalleled amount of power, wealth, status and opportunities as their birth rights since independence. UMNO and its major coalition partners in BN, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), were formed and allowed to survive primarily to represent and protect political and material interests of Chinese and Indian minority communities. In the post-NEP period, the regime has become even more protective of the communal interests of the Muslim-Malays while gaining authoritarian characters.

Under this ethnocentric pro-Malay regime, state institutions and a bureaucratic infrastructure were constructed in a manner to buttress supremacy of the state, UMNO and the Muslim-Malay community, while undermining civil society, civil rights and the well being of minority communities. Furthermore, the same regime has granted an unprecedented amount of power, resources and authority to the Islamic state bureaucracies in order to cater to the religious interests and spiritual well being of a growingly pious Muslim-Malay community. The results of such maneuvering are now obvious in a wide range of policy areas including law, education, welfare and economy. Consequently, post-NEP generations of minority populations feel increasingly alienated and discriminated against despite the fact that some communal grievances were mitigated by the inclusive multi-ethnic national vision and continuous growth under Mahathir (together with currently opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim) till the multiple crises following 1998.

Against this backdrop, it is of little surprise that the Hindu-Indian community has formed a powerful opposition against the regime. In 2007, the opposition was organised to form an ethno-nationalistic movement, Hindraf (Hindu Rights Action Force), to express the socio-economic grievances and political demands of the community. The state’s violent suppression of a street protest organised by the movement further deteriorated the already uneasy relations between the BN regime and minority communities, arousing anti-regime sentiments even further with particular damage done in urban areas.

Opposition parties, while certainly sharing such unusually strong anti-regime sentiments emanating from civil society, were not able to translate these divisive ethnocentric sentiments and demands directly into political action. Instead, they have chosen to stay mute on fundamental issues that they do not wish to discuss or negotiate, that is, issues related to communal identities and religion. Moreover, they strategically framed their anti-regime cause in universal democratic terms so as to forge a critical coalition with civil society forces across communal boundaries. They did so precisely because they need one another to maintain a multi-ethnic coalition front in order to beat BN. They and electorates are aware that the opposition parties and their interests, just like their opponents in the ruling coalition, are defined and restrained by competing identities: PKR is Malay-Muslim dominant and led by the most charismatic and powerful Malaysian Muslim leader to date, Anwar Ibrahim; DAP is non-Muslim based and dominated by ethnic Chinese; and PAS is a puritanical Islamist party. These constituencies have made significant efforts to compromise on issues regarding their core identities and interests in order to achieve their political goals and survival. Such compromise was handsomely rewarded with a significant 2008 increase in votes for the PR.

The tragedy of Malaysian authoritarianism is that authoritarian rule has grown stronger alongside the growing dominance of UMNO in BN and the Malaysian polity as well as its avidly pro-Malay and pro-Islam characters throughout 1980s and 1990s. The highly politicised identities—and state, political, economic and socio-cultural institutions created to serve the identity-based interests over several decades—will not easily go away even if regime change rids Malaysia of authoritarian rule and the BN falls from power. Popular interests and demands will continue to be defined and organised through collective identities based on ethnicity, religion, culture, or some combination of these characteristics.

This situation will lead to another tragedy: a tragedy of Malaysian democracy and regime change. As a result of the institutionalisation of politicised identities, demands for democracy, freedom and equal rights for all Malaysians are readily interpreted in zero-sum terms to connote a reduction of the special rights and privileges preserved for the Malay-Muslim majority. Regardless of whoever takes over the BN, the new regime will have to negotiate and balance contending communal demands and interests.

The key question here is whether Malaysians, especially the Malay-Muslim community, are ready to accept a new set of deals, terms and conditions set by the new democratic regime along the line suggested by PR. All possible signs thus far seem to suggest that they are not. According to public surveys conducted by the Merdeka Center between 2008 and 2010, a large majority of Malays, especially those in the lower income categories, strongly favour the reservation of special rights and privileges. They are also extremely anxious about policies and concessions that appear favourable to non-Malay communities. It is important to remember that Malay votes for UMNO/BN were constant between 2004 and 2008 and many still think that UMNO supremacy is necessary to protect their special rights.

More alarmingly, such anxiety among a community perceived to be under threat or siege at a time when the regime is undergoing unpredictable transition is a ready recipe for communal tension and potential violence. Indeed, it was when the BN adopted policies and allocated resources in ways seen disproportionately favorable to the non-Malay communities, especially Chinese, that ultra-nationalistic Malay movements such as Perkasa gained popular approval and appeal. Some UMNO elites were willing to allow these movements to exploit racist rhetoric and symbols in an effort to provoke anti-minority sentiment and violence.

Regime transition means that UMNO will be in the opposition. It is not unlikely that UMNO elites will use such racist rhetoric and movements more freely and aggressively to regain power they have lost, deteriorating already uneasy ethnic relations even further. We are also unsure if PAS will remain moderate once it gains power in order to have access to the conservative religious bureaucracies and patronage that have expanded dramatically under UMNO. According to Ashutosh Varshney, a renowned scholar of ethnic violence, ethnic peace is more likely when rivaling communities have developed associational interactions and ties—and social capital—across ethnic boundaries so as to withstand attempts to instigate racial hatred or antagonism. If this proposition and legacies of institutionalized political identities mentioned above offer some guide to predict Malaysia’s democratic future, we are left uncertain whether the much-waited transition to democracy will in fact bring a peaceful and happy future for all Malaysians as many had wished.

Kikue Hamayotsu is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USA. Her research focuses on comparative politics, identity politics, religion and politics and regime transition and quality of democracy in the Muslim world with special reference to Indonesia and Malaysia. Her current interest include: religious parties and electoral politics, religious intolerance and violence, and finding a way to move Australia closer to North America.

Nurul wants an answer: Why were residents' funds channeled to Nong Chik's events

FT Minister Raja Nong Chik may have abused his power, channeling funds allocated for a public housing residents’ association in Lembah Pantai to his own programs.

The Apartment Sri Putra residents' association is allocated RM10,000 in assistance to run its program, which include a fire prevention training planned for April this year. But it had to be canceled after the funds were allegedly spent on a ‘Raja Nong Chik meets with the locals’ event organized by the local Umno branch.

Seeking clarification, Lembah Pantai MP Nurul Izzah told of how her constituents tried to apply to City Hall or DBKL, but were turned away.

“When they called DBKL to use their allocation, they were told that it was used for a programme organised by Umno which invited the minister.  But when we brought this matter up with DBKL, the mayor said that we have to bring the matter up to the ministry as he is only a civil servant,” Nurul told a press conference on Friday.

Big ambitions
Raja Nong Chik is the head of the Lembah Pantai Umno division and aspires to be nominated as his party's candidate for the constituency at the next general election, widely expected to be held this year.
If successful, he is likely to face Nurul, who won the seat in 2008 in a David vs Goliath
contest against Women's minister Shahrizat Jalil. Now at the centre of a corruption scandal that Nong Chik has been accused of stirring up, Shahrizat is unlikely to be chosen to contest the seat. Speculation is rife she may soon have to step down as minister as well as head of Wanita Umno.

Apartment Sri Putra residents' association committee member Abdul Rahim Mohd Noor, who was also at the press conference, said the remainder portion of the allocation was used for a 'maulidur rasul event' organized by the local surau committee.






Malaysia Chronicles.com

Malaysia Election Around the Corner?

With Sodomy II out of the way, look forward to March polls -- maybe or maybe not

With the Sodomy II trial of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim now out of the way, it is probably time to start thinking seriously about Malaysia's 13th general election, which most observers -- but not all -- believe will be called in March, during school holidays when the classrooms are empty.

Despite euphoria on the part of the three-party opposition coalition, the end of the trial doesn't mean that Anwar's troubles are over. One political observer in Kuala Lumpur told Asia Sentinel that the United Malays National Organization, the lead party in the ruling national coalition, will probably do its best to discredit him in other ways.

Although he was declared not guilty, the image of the opposition leader as a sexual deviant has probably been planted in a lot of Malaysian minds. Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, Anwar's accuser, appears to have no intention of going away. He has asked the attorney general to appeal the acquittal and is tweeting and texting his outrage and innocence to anyone who will read them. UMNO could well put him on the trail to demand denied justice at every campaign stop.

However, Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak carry plenty of baggage of their own. A long series of scandals within the party bear the hallmarks of being pushed by various Umno factions to cripple each other. That isn’t to say the snap poll won’t come off. But there are headwinds. The party held its annual general assembly in December and was expected to come out fighting. There was plenty of harsh rhetoric that made it sound as if Umno is besieged on all sides by threatening foes from both inside and outside the country – particularly from Christians, and particularly Chinese ones.

Najib himself concluded the conclave by pounding the war drums in stark terms, outlining a dark future if the opposition were to win, saying that: “This is the fate that will befall us if Umno loses power. Who will uphold the symbol of Islam? Who is capable of protecting the rights and agenda of the Malays? Who will continue to honour our Malay rulers?”

Massive scandal derails party conclave
Almost simultaneously with the annual general assembly, however, Umno found itself in a massive scandal involving the family of Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, the head of Wanita Umno, the women’s wing of the party and minister for Women, Welfare and Community Development. It has been impossible to wish the scandal away as a ploy by the opposition because it was exposed in September by Malaysia’s Auditor General.

As some observers have pointed out, it is also damaging because it involves agriculture, and particularly cattle – something Umno’s rural constituency can understand in all of its ominous implications. The matter involves the National Feedlot Corporation, which was given RM250 million (US80 million) in a government soft loan and was established to slaughter as many as 60,000 cattle a year by halal, or religiously accepted, methods. However, NFC has never slaughtered 10 percent of the projected total and has since scaled back its target to 8,000 head but hasn’t been able to meet that target either. The agreement to establish the company, made when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was prime minister, was okayed by Muhyiddin Yassin, the agriculture minister at the time and now the deputy prime minister.

None of Shahrizat's family had any experience in cattle production or beef supply prior to the establishment of the company. It appears that much of the money—as much as RM131 million -- was poured into things that had nothing to do with feeding cattle but instead into cars, condos and travel, among other things.

The matter has been seized upon with a good deal of glee by the opposition. One Malay businessman source said “there may be other revelations as to how the money for cattle was used which may implicate the number 2 guy.” That is Muhyiddin Yassin, the deputy prime minister. “This thing has been a lifeline for the opposition who are sitting on a thumb drive full of info which they are revealing in bits and pieces,” he said.

Intermixed with this are reports that both Muhyiddin’s and Najib’s private secretaries have been accepting funds of at least RM10,000 per month from private parties for reasons that are unclear. The allegations against each – complete with pictures of checks -- are suspected of having been leaked by the Muhyiddin and Najib factions against each other. There reportedly is yet another massive scandal waiting in the wings, involving hundreds of millions of dollars in connection with the Iskandar project in Johor across the strait from Singapore. Documents are believed to have been made available to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission that are said to implicate former lieutenants of former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Some sources have said the Shahrizat matter and shortcomings by other ministers argues for a cabinet reshuffle prior to any election. Certainly, Shahrizat is expected to be dropped as a candidate in the next election, whenever it is to be held, and that probably her husband will be charged at some point.

Continuing allegations of corruption have cost the country four places in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, dropping it to a still relatively respectable 60th. But it is the third straight year the country has slipped in the perceptions index – all three occurring on Najib’s watch. Although the mainstream media, all of which are owned by the component parties of the Barisan have tended to downplay the corruption reports, it is estimated that 41 percent of Malaysians now have access to the Internet – and a huge flock of opposition bloggers and websites, some of which, such as Malaysian Insider and Malaysiakini, are very professionally produced, and which pull no punches on reporting corruption and government mismanagement.

Part of the problem for Umno, a party source says, is getting divisional warlords to make way for winnable candidates in races that have become competitive now that the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition has become a genuine movement rather than a ragtag group of parties cobbled together by Anwar. These are old hands that refuse to give away to younger, more attractive and educated candidates.

It is a longstanding problem borne out by the fact that Rais Yatim, the information minister and an Umno Supreme Council member, said after the December conclave that those not selected must refrain from sabotaging the party. It is significant enough that the Mahathir wing of the party is contemplating demanding that party members sign a loyalty oath. A Penang district member, Musa Sheikh Fadzir, proposed the establishment of a General Election Disciplinary Committee to take action against those who go against the party in the upcoming polls.

Added to this are concerns that the party isn’t appealing strongly enough to young, urban Malays, turned off by infighting and corruption, who have been drifting towards Parti Islam se-Malaysia, or PAS, which has rebranded itself as a secular party, and to a lesser extent to Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat.

According to the Neilsen rating agency, Malaysia’s highest Internet usage is recorded among the young -- of people aged 20-24: 57 percent use the Internet regularly, spending an average of 22.3 hours online per week. Despite considerable publicity in recent weeks over a demand that the party return to its Islamic roots by former executive committee member Hasan Ali and his confederate, Nasharudin Mat Isa, a former PAS deputy president who was supplanted by the new moderate team, other sources say the party remains perhaps the most disciplined in the three-party opposition.

The biggest of the three opposition parties, PAS is continuing to work to appeal to urban voters. It is a dramatic illustration of the change in Malaysian society. According to the CIA World Factbook, 72 percent of the country’s 28.7 million people are now living in cities. Although Malays make up the preponderance of the other 28 percent, the rural roots of both Umno and PAS are vanishing – at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. Agriculture now comprises only 13 percent of the workforce, with industry, 36 percent, and services, 51 percent, making up the rest.

As evidence of the racial divisions in the country, a poll by the Merdeka Centre taken last year said 61 percent of ethnic Malays believe the country is going in the right direction as opposed to only 31 percent of Chinese. Ethnic Indian approval of the way the country is going, at a high of 66 percent, has fallen dramatically as well, to 39 percent despite Najib’s assiduous efforts to woo Indians back to the fold.

Najib, Rais Yatim and others have pointed to the decision to acquit Anwar as evidence of the Malaysian judiciary's independence, which is probably stretching the truth considerably. However, Umno and its leaders have been touting reforms of the hated colonial-era Internal Security Act, which allows for the indeterminate jailing of anyone the attorney general considers to be subversive, amendments to the Printing Presses and Publications Act and election law cleanup as well as other liberalizations as a step towards a new Malaysia.

Opponents regard these changes as cosmetic. The ISA is likely to be replaced by something akin to the Patriot Act, which was jammed through a panicked US Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC.

The government appears to have shot itself in the foot with the passage by the Dewan Rakyat, or parliament, of a Peaceful Assembly Act that opposition lawmakers, human rights activists and the country’s lawyers say was about as bad as the law it replaces as it bans street demonstrations and requires assemblies, meetings and processions to be held only on designated compounds.

Whatever strength Najib has within Umno and whatever hold Umno has on the ethnic Malay electorate, the Barisan Nasional appears almost certain to have to simply write off the Chinese vote, and perhaps an unknown portion of the urban Malay and Indian vote as well. According to one analysis, overall 50 percent of parliamentary seats are Malay majority, 25 percent are Chinese majority and mixed seats i.e. seats in which no ethnic group has a majority, 25 percent are from the east Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. To win Putrajaya, either the Barisan or Pakatan Rakyat must secure at least half of Malay majority seats -- 25 percent of the total parliamentary seats. For the Barisan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 5 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 20 percent from Sabah and Sarawak. For Pakatan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 20 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 5 percent from Sabah and Sarawak.

The other Barisan component parties are in considerably worse shape than Umno. The nearly moribund Malaysian Chinese Association is enmeshed in a scandal over the development of the Port Klang multimodal port facility, which has the potential to cost the country RM13 billion if all loan commitments are to be met. There is also hand-to-hand combat among leadership factions. In addition Chua Soi Lek, the head of the party, has been repeatedly taken to task by Malay supremacists such as Ibrahim Ali and his NGO Perkasa, which has the tacit backing of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, further disenchanting ethnic Chinese, who make up 23.7 percent of the population. They appear to have abandoned the party wholesale for the Democratic Action Party, which has been termed a Chinese chauvinist party.

Although East Malaysia appears solidly in the Barisan camp, if the state election held in Sarawak held on April 16 is any harbinger, the results indicate a clear abandonment of the Barisan by Chinese voters. The Chinese-based opposition Democratic Action Party won 12 of the 15 seats it contested, doubling its share of seats in Sarawak since the 2006 state elections. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, won three seats, including a rural one.

Thus the outcome appears to depend on how much PAS, having abandoned its Islamic goals, can make inroads among the Malay population, and particularly the urban Malay population. That 72 percent urban preponderance starts to look interesting indeed.

Many observers believe the most likely scenario is a Barisan win, but the historic two-thirds majority in parliament, which allowed the Barisan to dictate the country’s political and governmental agenda, is likely gone for good.

That doesn’t mean the opposition is faring much better. Pakatan Rakyat coalition continues to be beset with defections and arguments between the three component parties.

One of the things militating for an early election is increasingly dour economic forecasts. Second-half gross domestic product growth edged lower to 4.0 percent year-on-year as domestic demand weakened. By sector, according to the Malaysia Economic Institute of Research, services (6.3 percent growth) and manufacturing (2.1 percent) were the main growth engines. MEIR expects growth momentum to moderate as exports weaken on lacklustre performance by its main export partners, principally the United States. For 2012, MIER has revised its GDP growth forecast downward to 5.0 percent. Other research analysts, more pessimistic, put growth at 4.4 percent.

Although inflation seems relatively tame at a forecast 3 percent, Malaysia’s tripartite growth model, two segments of which are manufacturing and commodities and both directed for export, will be hit by what appears to be an almost certain 2012 economic downturn in Europe and sub-par growth in the United States barring some miracle. That leaves just fiscal pump-priming and the public sector economy to maintain growth. Federal government net borrowing is already forecast at RM45.1 billion for the full year of 2011 and RM43.6 billion in 2012. Najib has produced an election budget with some goodies for everybody but particularly the country’s ethnic Malays, including 1.3 million civil servants, one of the highest civil servants-to-population ratios in the world – the preponderance of them ethnic Malays. Civil servants will be offered tuition assistance for part-time studies

Other goodies include abolishment of payments for primary and secondary education, a “commercialisation innovation fund” to help out SMEs, a RM2 billion “shariah-compliant” financing fund for SMEs to be managed by selected Islamic banks – another bone thrown to Malay businessmen – as well as a review of capital gains taxes on property to stabilise the property market.

Najib and his troops have been hitting the campaign trail assiduously. But whether that means an election is imminent remains to be seen. Mahathir, the party’s stormy petrel, counsels waiting until all of the ducks are lined up. But he also counsels that the Barisan keep up the pressure to make the opposition believe the national polls could happen sooner – forcing them to spend money, time and energy to try to keep up with the government parties.

 Asia Sentinel.com

Even Dr M thinks Najib will lose but a debate with Anwar is still vital

THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE The polls are looming and Malaysia is gearing up for the most hotly-contested general election ever. Unlucky 13 may be the one that finally breaks the Barisan Nasional's 50-year dominance over Malaysian politics and welcomes the Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya.

With all things in the balance, it is only right that the people of Malaysia test the ability of its two prospective prime ministers on a public stage to discuss public policies. Yes, it’s high time we see a Najib Razak - Anwar Ibrahim debate.

For the record, the Republican Presidential candidates in the United States have already had 20 debates; which has helped narrow the field down to only 4 candidates. The debate floor is a great place to gauge each candidates stand on such things as immigration laws, English as the official language of America and setting up more jobs for unemployed Americans.

So why can’t Malaysia have a debate between Najib and Anwar?

Even Mahathir is worried Najib will lose

It is also telling that former premier Mahathir Mohamad has openly advised Najib not to debate Anwar. It immediately sparked talk that Mahathir was afraid the technically less competent Najib would disgrace himself in such a debate.

Indeed, the reason Mahathir trotted out defied logic, insisting that a 'debate' made sense only if Anwar shared the current the BN's views.

"What’s the point of debating when everyone knows his stand, and the debate won’t change this. It’s a different case if Anwar shares the government’s opinion on matters raised," the government media reported Mahathir as saying.

At the root of the BN's problems is that Najib Razak is merely caretaker prime minister, one who was appointed to the post by his party after an internal power struggle that ousted former premier Abdullah Badawi. Najib should have immediately called for snap general elections to win his own mandate from the people, but he chickened out, knowing that he was likely to perform worse than Badawi. Only one year remains of the BN's 5-year mandate now, with Parliament due to automatically dissolve in April 2013 regardless of whether Najib calls for polls.

On the other hand, Anwar has been prime minister in waiting for too long. Anwar Ibrahim is now the leader of the opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat, and if it wins more of the 222 seats in Parliament than BN, Anwar will finally become PM. Back in 90s, Anwar was already the hottest Malay leader in town. Then he was the Umno deputy president and even Mahathir feared him, so much so that sodomy charges were fabricated to bring down and jail Anwar.

At that time, Najib was nowhere in the radar, unable to command a following of his own. 

In fact, he claimed to be one of Anwar's biggest supporters then. And so did others like current Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Defense minister Zahid Hamidi. With Anwar released only from jail in 2004, it is not surprising that these men switched their allegiance to Mahathir, and now, they are keeping an eye on premiership for themselves. As for Mahathir, sure he would rush for the chance to be PM again - if Malaysians would vote for him that is - but basically, his efforts are now focused on getting his son Mukhriz to take over Umno and the premiership in the round after GE-13.

Paranoia only confirms Anwar's legitimacy to be PM

This is why since 1998, the BN government has gone to incredible lengths to keep denying Anwar his shot at the premiership. In fact, the change in the Malaysian political scene can be traced back to his detention under the dreaded Internal Security Act in 1999. This was the event that galvanised the opposition movement in Malaysia. And every political move the Umno-led BN has made since has been designed to keep Anwar out of the race for prime minister.

So silly is this thinking that many pundits say it is because of this very paranoia of Anwar, that Mahathir and gang have actually trapped themselves now. Always worried that justice will finally come and they will be made to answer for their misdeeds, they have helped themselves to huge chunks of the national wealth resulting in RM888 billion in illicit outflows to overseas accounts. They have also neglected their duties, the economy and the weak governance of the country have chased away massive foreign investment. At the same time, by their sheer insistence to 'shoot at sight' Anwar and his Pakatan cohorts, they have unwittingly confirmed Anwar's legitimacy as challenger for the Malaysian premiership.

So, barring other candidates who feel that they can garner the confidence of the Parliament as prime minister, these two gentlemen are Malaysia’s heavy-weights for the main contest. And should there be other candidates, they too should be allowed their chance to debate so that Malaysians as a whole benefit and get to choose the leader they believe can best deliver the job.

What does the Constitution say

Article 43 (2) states - The Cabinet shall be appointed as follows, that is to say: (a) the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House;

The key to being prime minister in Malaysia is that a member of the House of Representatives command the confidence of the majority of the members of that house. Malaysians vote in fellow citizens as members of the House of Representative and 'pass on' the responsibility of choosing the Prime Minister to these elected representatives. Trust is passed onto these reps to make the wisest choice to benefit all. Whether these reps betray their countrymen and instead vote based on instructions from 'higher authority' in their party or in line with bribes taken will determine whether they are re-elected in the next round.

So the people must keep tabs and do not take for granted their reps will not betray their trust. But how can the people of Malaysia gauge the capabilities of whom will best fit the role of Prime Minister? A public debate would do fine.

But Malaysians still think MPs are their bosses!

A public debate is a medium by which the public can see and gauge for themselves the candidates with aspirations to lead the nation. Any reservations can then be voiced out to their respective Members of Parliament and the voice of the people must then be taken into account when choosing the person that would command the confidence of the House of Representatives to be PM. It is a process by which the people of Malaysia can be and should be part of. How difficult it this? Is this not a hall-mark of a progressive and mature democracy?

Sad to say, in many parts of the country, the people feel beholden to the reps. They feel their MPs are their bosses and not the other way around. But allocations given to the MP to distributes to the needy are actually money belonging to the nation - the Malaysian people as a whole. The elected rep is just a person chosen to undertake this task and the basis for choosing him or her should be trust.

The MP's constituents chose him because they trust him. So he has to do right by them and not behave as if they owe him and need to thank him and be grateful to him. This is the problem with Malaysia and only a government that will not take advantage of the rural people and instead educate them on their rights should be elected in GE-13.

This is 2012 and Malaysia is already very late in the people awareness and empowerment game.

Cannot function without a script written out for him

Yet in true BN government-knows-best form, Najib Razak will not take part in a public debate. And Mahathir supports this fully, although the older man's reasons may be less flattering to Najib than the younger man realizes!

But why won't Najib take on Anwar. At 58, Najib should possess greater fire and derring-do than the 64-year-old Anwar.

Perhaps, it is because in a public debate, Najib Razak’s most obvious flaw will be on show. He is a 'scripted' man - and in a volatile environment of a public debate where scripts are written on the spot by oneself as one speaks - he would simply be dumbfounded. Yes, the cat is out of the bag. Without scriptwriters, Najib will have nothing to say. Unaided, Najib would fail miserably against Anwar Ibrahim, a man who has been tried, tested and tempered through all temperatures on the most public of forums including the two Umno-instigated sodomy trials.

Bear in mind, Anwar has been defending himself in since 1999. He was not only the fastest-rising and most popular Finance minister of the Southeast Asian region, but he  has borne the brunt of all sorts of attacks against his sexuality, morality, character and personality. Both in the public sphere and in the courts of law.

Winner is obvious, and there may be sniggers but ...

In an immediate face-off the winner is obvious. But Najib should not be so vain and shallow as to refuse a debate because he knows, like the rest of the nation, he will surely lose. He must adopt a more gung-ho attitude and not just roll over and die. Style is not really that important, neither is articulation. Facts and substance are.

This is what Najib, at 58, should learn. He is no longer 18 and trying to show off to his girlfriend. He is Prime Minister of Malaysia and Malaysians want to hear what he has to say. How can he just drop his head and pretend it is not important. Not only will his critics in the Pakatan have a field day ridiculing his cowardice, even his own people in Umno will doubt him even more. Does Najib not think Mahathir would not in private sneer at him and perhaps tell common friends that 'Najib is so useless, I have to come out and help him to get out of it!' Isn't this a very likely reaction, even if not from Mahathir, others in Umno will surely say so.

Above all, Najib owes his countrymen. They already know him and they are entitled to know whether he has more to him than he has shown so far. Really, he should recognize their rights. Otherwise, he should talking about his dad, Abdul Razak who was the second premier, all the time as if being Razak's son means he would never do anything to harm Malaysia. But is not keeping Malaysia backwards and allowing ruthless opportunists like Mahathir to call the shots a slap in the face to the memory of his dad. One really wonders if Razak would approve of Mahathir or perhaps would have been even worse than Mahathir if he had ruled Malaysia longer.

Reclaim your rights

Malaysians should reclaim their rights and their nation. A public debate is the basic building block of a democracy. It is not an elocution or a beauty contest but a forum where the ideas and policies of two or more different quarters can be publicly evaluated, and the people can make up their minds. The prime minister's post is the highest executive job in the land. Malaysians have a right to gauge the potential of each candidate for themselves and not be curtailed by what the Umno-BN chooses because it is not to their disadvantage.

Finally, the prime minister can be anyone who is a member of the House of Representative and not limited to president of Umno. And to leave no room for doubt as to how the prime minister is chosen, all candidates must be made to lay out their plans and ideas and aspirations for Malaysians to vet through and to eventually approve of - whether at the ballot boxes on their own or through their reps in Parliament.

This is playing fair, this is playing fair according to the rules of democracy. This is the sign of a mature democratic country. If Najib or any other candidate in the future - whether from BN or Pakatan - refuses to debate in the run-up to any major election, he or she should not even be nominated to contest.

by  Maclean Patrick & Wong Choon Mei

Malaysia Chronicle

Pitfalls and danger lurk but DAP has to keep the door open to more Malays

The Democratic Action Party (DAP) is on the right track in declaring that it intends to raise the number of candidates from Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia in a bid for more seats in Parliament.

This is an idea whose time has come nearly 50 years after the Peoples Action Party (PAP), its parent party, seized the reins of power down south across the causeway in Singapore. Even as the PAP’s fortunes are on the wane in the island republic, the DAP’s star is shining ever brightly than before in Malaysia across both sides of the South China Sea.

Spoilt for choice

Malays in their political maturity phase are now spoilt for choice after Umno which has consistently bludgeoned the Malay opposition into near extinction through defections, the Special Branch, the Internal Security Act (ISA), the Bankruptcy Act, the Income Tax Act and the like.

Initially, the Malays made for PAS over the years, and then entered the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) after the sacking of then Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim from the Umno Government. Visuals in 1998 of Anwar’s blue-and-black eye – now the party symbol – after a savage beating at the hands of then Inspector-General of Police Rahim Noor, infuriated the masses like no other incident.

The Malays also realised that there was no more room for them in Umno, and with good reasons. The ruling party has since 1987 degenerated from a mass-based movement into a Holding Company of many ‘Sdn Bhd’ or branches virtually owned, managed and controlled by particular families of mini political dynasties – often the term warlord is used – and focused only on plundering the Public Treasury through opportunities created by the government and the system.

The Umno of today, in reality Mahathir’s Umno Baru from 1987 after the old Umno was declared unlawful and deregistered, is no longer in touch with the masses, Malay and non-Malay alike. This is a party of robber barons living it up as if there’s no tomorrow.

Witness Prime Minister Najib Razak’s wife, Rosmah Majid’s shopping sprees abroad. She continues to live in a state of denial, even when the foreign press have taken to dubbing her as the region’s new ‘Imelda Marcos’ in a reference to the former Philippine dictator’s wife famed for buying 3,000 pairs of shoes while the poor in the country lived near to starvation – and this is no exaggeration!

Why DAP but then again, why not DAP!

The question that arises within Umno circles is why any good Malay would be caught even dead in DAP when they can opt for the mass-based PAS or the PKR if unhappy with the ruling party? Umno no doubt still has pretensions of forming a Malay unity government - “let’s share the loot” -- with PAS and forcing PKR to merge - read Sodomy II - with it. These are strategies the party cannot pursue if the Malays are in the highly-disciplined DAP as well in substantial numbers.

The DAP foray, or intended in-roads into Malay areas, comes close on the realization within PAS and PKR that the former has just about reached its zenith and natural potential based on its main Islamic theme. PKR meanwhile is still work in progress in organising the Malay and other grassroots. Although there are many talented Malays and non-Malays wanting to join Anwar’s party, perhaps many folds more than PAS and DAP, PKR needs to work harder on its internal structures.

The DAP will not be eating into the Malay support behind PAS and PKR but will be seeking instead to woo the Malay fence-sitters in Umno areas. These prefer not to be with either PAS or PKR for reasons of their own.

Whatever the rationale, it is good to seen parties in the Pakatan – PKR and DAP at least – progressing beyond lip service in being multiracial parties.

PAS will get there soon, it is to be hoped, because race-based politics is something that will kill Malaysia sooner rather than later.

Assure the Malays of what is rightfully theirs

DAP will be able to woo Malays by pointing out the degeneration of Umno since 1987 and its continued degeneration under ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad, its unofficial Advisor, and its linkage with Perkasa from the right-wing fringe.

However, the DAP would also need to re-assure the Malays that Article 153 of the Federal Constitution and the New Economic Policy (NEP) would be maintained, albeit as envisaged in letter and spirit.

The DAP would also need to point out to the Malay-speaking communities that it would be in their long-term interest that the power over Article 153 be restored back to the King and that the deviations and distortions in the said clause and the NEP be ended once and for all for the benefit of the malays themselves and the nation at large.

There are no other issues that prevent the Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia from flocking to the DAP or PKR and PAS in droves.

Malays should not put all their eggs in one basket

It would not be in the interest of the Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia to put all their political eggs in one basket i.e. the decadent and degenerate Umno under a super duper corrupt leadership at every level of the party.

The more number of Malays in DAP, the more multiracial the party would eventually become in Parliament.

Hence, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the number of Malay legislators in DAP, perhaps as many as 35 MPs eventually, equal that of the party’s non-Malay representatives in Parliament. This will reduce the number of Malays MPs from Umno to 35 including 13 from Sabah.

There are 10 Chinese MP seats for the DAP’s taking in East Malaysia - Sabah (3) and Sarawak (7). That assumes that the party, in a worse case scenario, will not able to pick up any Dayak MP seats in Sarawak through its Dayak Task Force. In Sabah, it’s unlikely that the DAP can pick up any Dusun – including Kadazan or urban Dusun and Murut – MP seats or any non-Dusun Muslim seats.

The DAP can pick up at least another 25 seats in Peninsular Malaysia from its Chinese and Indian candidates.

That is the best-case scenario that pundits are now calling. As we go closer to the 13th general election, this forecast can deteriorate or even improve. Whichever it is, Pakatan is expected to trounce BN.

DAP turncoat?

The greatest worry though is that DAP turns traitor! Yes, talk is growing Umno has begun negotiations with DAP for an alliance post GE-13, whether BN or Pakatan wins. If true, Lim Guan Eng, the DAP secretary-general, will be committing suicide for his party. His dad, Lim Kit Siang, and DAP chairman Karpal Singh are bound to resist such a move but these men cannot live forever – legends though they are!

Even if DAP declines crossing over, the new members it picks up from Umno might do what Zahrain Hashim, Zaid Ibrahim and gang did to PKR. This has been a sensitive topic of discussion amongst the top Pakatan leadership. It is a real worry because Umno has the big bucks. The party itself may have little money but the Umno elite feature among the richest people in the world! What is several billion to them when they can rape the country for hundreds more if they get to cling on!

But the wheels of time wait for no one and Malaysians must be brave in facing the future. Malaysians must learn from the horror rule of Umno and BN never to depend on anyone or any party solely. They must stand up for themselves, their rights and the way they wish to live and be governed by.

Otherwise, we would go mad from the all betrayals – past, present and future. So take heart Malaysians and face GE-13 bravely. First step, get rid of Umno-BN. Then insist Pakatan carries out reforms immediately to protect the people from any form of political hegemony ever again.

That is the first order of the day, the most important to prevent us from ever losing our freedom again. Malaysians must reclaim their own rights before they can reclaim their nation.

by  K Suresh & Wong Choon Mei

Malaysia Chronicle

The Remarkable Anwar Ibrahim - Loh Gwo-Burne

This is not an article about Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy trial. But in case anyone is interested to hear my two-cents worth on the trial, I have two questions. How many people do we know who have actually been charged with sodomy? And do you think if Dato Seri Anwar will be charged if he were not an opposition leader?

My answers are 1 and NO

Furthermore, for those paying attention during the VK Lingam video, would have heard Anwar’s case being mentioned. What does it mean? It means the BN government would go to great length to ascertain that Anwar will be put behind bar until his political carrier expires, if not for his entire life.

On that fateful day Lingam revealed to my father and myself that Mahathir and his political cronies had planned an Umno led coalition be cemented in power as long as time could be projected, and in the name of Malaysian prosperity and peace, Anwar must be destroyed. In this conspiracy all sectors of government including the civil service, judiciary, and police will be under their direct or indirect control and influence! The reach of this conspiracy even extends its reach into the private sector.

The financial system in the country be manned by trusted cronies, Petronas and its agents guarded by friends and family, the private power suppliers, utilities, media, trading companies, precious little was spared. One man stood to threaten the conspiracy, so he must be destroyed.

And what will happen on the 9th of January? I think all the cards are with the conspirators. If recent trends are any indication, then I think Anwar will be found not guilty, to buy some good will. Instead moving the grounds of execution will be moved to the court of Appeal (probably after the elections). But all the cards are with the conspirators, we can but wait.

With that out of the way, I want to talk about my observations about one of the most remarkable person I have had the pleasure to encounter and spend time with. He is my boss, but I will try to be objective. So let’s make it clear that Anwar is by no means perfect, only Umno Barisan Nasioanl is perfect and does no wrong, so Anwar from time to time makes mistakes. The important thing is that he admits it.

The Inspirational

The first time I met Anwar Ibrahim was about 4 years ago together with my father. I was never an Anwar fan, also I am a skeptic by nature making me someone quite difficult to convince. I have lost all hope for Malaysia, and like many Malaysians have decided to move abroad. I was in a very good place in my life. Anwar struck me with his warmth and modesty. He spoke at length on his beliefs and his political vision for Malaysia. He spoke about his views regarding race relations and international relations of Malaysia. He spoke at length about his mistakes and what he learnt during his ordeals. When I left the meeting I left with a change of heart. I left the meeting loving Malaysia more.

For the first time in my life I felt hope for Malaysia. I realised that there is something worth fighting for. Suddenly I started to see everyone as Malaysians instead of just Malay, Indian, Chinese, Dayak, etc. I was inspired to see hope for our nation and its people... Anwar inspires. Anwar inspired with his sincerity and  conviction. Anwar inspired with his vision. And directly and indirectly millions were inspired. Just five years ago, who believed that our nation was standing on the verge of change? Who would believe that the mighty Umno would need to start listening to the rakyat?

Of course Anwar was not the only source of inspiration. But at a time where some tremble at the sight of the moon on a green flag, and others who hurl insults at the sight of a rocket. He more than anyone else was the glue to bind us all together. He more than anyone else led us to each other, and today together we stand at the brink of a regime change in Malaysia. Without Anwar, how many would have believed we would have even got this far?

The Resilient

The remarkable thing about the survey which registered 51% liked our prime minister, while 39% likes Anwar. A friend commented that PR should be worried since Najib apparently was more popular than Anwar. But I offered a reversed conclusion that it is BN who should be concerned. Why?

Simple. For four years you have all the kings’ horses and men, all the newspapers, radio, cybertroopers attack one man. You went so far as to dig out the old play book and charge him with sodomy. You even have a crony get his own brother to impersonate this man in a porno production. All these while, all the mainstream media treats everyday as "denitrify our prime minster day". Even going as far as to issue official national sermons for friday prayers telling all good muslims to offer undivided loyalty and obedience to our great Prime Minister and friends. After four years of this and you find you are only 10% ahead, wouldn't you be worried?

In other words we need to appreciate one thing. Anwar is extremely resilient. Anyone else subjected to this intensity of abuse would have thrown in the towel long ago, anyone else would have fallen ages ago. Yet, Anwar still stands tall and strong.

In fact through the waves of onslaughts directed at Anwar, I have never seen him visibly affected. Except during Zahrain’s fallout. For the first time I could see Anwar visibly sad, more from the loss of an old friend I sensed. Despite the unrelenting assaults, which would have crippled entire armies, Anwar still stands tall and strong, “this is because of the hard work and support from all of you” he would say. But in truth is we are the ones that should be thankful.

Not only because he continues to give us hope and inspiration, he also provides us shelter and protection. Imagine if there is no Anwar to draw the waves and waves of onslaught by the powers that be.

Imagine if all the PR leaders and YBs are subjected to what Anwar has to face every day, how many more of us would have fallen? How many more would have thrown in the towel? He stood there and drew the majority of heat upon himself, so the rest of us can collectively work towards the goal of a better nation.

The Remarkable

Sometimes a nation produces a person who is destined to shine not only within their nation, but on the international stage as well. Someone that will make our nation shine that much more brightly (Some might try, some might imitate, but you can’t pretend to be Princess Diana).

We in Malaysia are fortunate to have produced such a remarkable person. But it is also unfortunate that we choose to allow him to be shackled and weighed down. Or should I say that it is unfortunate that so many of us decide to stand by and allow him to be shackled.

But remarkably Anwar remains firm on his love of Malaysia and its people, remains determined to spend his life and blood in building the nation into the great nation we know we can become. He believes we can, I believe we need to.

Today our nation remains rooted unable to break free from being decidedly mediocre, but the truth is we are mediocre by choice rather than due to any disability. To a large extend this is where our Government has decided is the best place to be. And for 55 years there have been nothing the people could have done about it.

In a way we chose where we wanted to be. When the BN government was bulldozing the so called "peaceful" assembly bill through parliament, in spite of the widespread objections from the people, a BN YB said that the Barisan Nasional is passing this bill with the mandate of the people and if you don't like it then take over the government in the next elections if you can.

The Remarkable Mr. Anwar Ibrahim says we can, do you hear him?

Gwo-Burne Loh

PKR MP for Kelana Jaya

REVIEW - An Analysis of Malaysia’s 12th General Election

1.    Introduction

In our pre-election analysis, we estimated that the Opposition parties will win about 50 parliamentary seats and face a very strong challenge from DAP-Keadilan in Penang. We also warned of the strong wind blowing in the Indian and Chinese communities towards the Opposition. We did not and could not then anticipate the equally strong wave of Malay support for the Opposition which resulted in the Opposition gaining 82 seats in Parliament, denying the Barisan Nasional of its two-thirds majority, the first time since the May 1969 General Election. We had in our pre-election analysis noted the possibility of a divided outcome with a strong Malay government against a strong non-Malay Opposition. However, this did not materialize as Malay support for the Opposition was also strong resulting in multi racial Keadilan winning 31 seats and PAS 23 seat in Parliament. In fact, the popular votes obtained by UMNO (35.5%) and combined PAS/Keadilan (34.8%) was almost equal. Whilst the loss of Penang state to the Opposition did not come as a surprise after the first week of campaign with massive turnout at DAP ceramahs and large donations collected on the spot for the DAP candidates, the fall of Perak and Selangor was totally unexpected. What happened? What caused the massive swing?

Some facts on the 12th General Election should be noted and analysed. The Barisan Nasional within Peninsular Malaysia failed to obtain a majority of popular votes cast. It only obtained 49% of the popular votes in Peninsular Malaysia whereas the Opposition had the majority of popular votes – 51%. UMNO won 35% of popular votes against 34.8% won by PAS and Keadilan. Although the Barisan Nasional won 140 seats in Parliament, 54 seats came from Sabah and Sarawak. So, without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional will not have even obtained a simple majority in Parliament. If the Federal Territory was to be considered as a state, the Barisan Nasional actually lost 6 states. In Negeri Sembilan, it survives with only a 4-seat majority. In Pahang, Barisan Nasional even lost the state capital, Kuantan. Even the Barisan Nasional fortress of Johor was successfully penetrated by the Opposition this time with both DAP and PAS winning seats. There are no safe bastions for Barisan Nasional anymore.

Although, the Chinese and Indian votes have decisively swung to the DAP and Keadilan, causing MCA, MIC and Gerakan to lose massive support, it was totally unexpected for UMNO to lose in urban and semi-urban Malay seats like Titiwangsa and Lembah Pantai (in Kuala Lumpur city), Shah Alam, Hulu Langat, Kuala Langat, Kuala Selangor, Gombak, Ampang, Sungei Petani, Merbok, Kulim, Nibong Tebal, Balik Pulau (in Penang), Parit Buntar and Bagan Serai in Perak. Barisan Nasional even loss Kuantan – the capital of Pahang and Indera Mahkota. With increasing urbanization with the urban population projected to increase to 73% in 2020, up from 62% in 2000, can UMNO prevent a slide in urban Malay votes? What made the urban Malays desert UMNO? This question needs to be addressed. For the MCA and MIC, it was clearly their worst ever electoral performance ever. In 1969, MCA won 13 out of 24 seats contested (54%), whereas this year MCA only won 37.5% of parliament seats contested. Gerakan was totally wiped out in Penang – its stronghold. The DAP campaigned that a vote for MCA or Gerakan is a vote for UMNO to capitalize on the anger of the Chinese community over UMNO. Hence, the track record of MCA and Gerakan was ignored with an emotional swing against UMNO.

2. What the Election Results Mean

Several broad conclusions can be drawn from the 12th General Election:-

(i) It is a seismic shift in Malaysian politics. A political tsunami as the Star headlines said. The old ways of campaigning may no longer work. Putting fear into voters minds did not work. The use of mainstream media to create spin or to demonise the opposition was detested by urban voters and had a counter-effect instead. From feedback, many urban voters were turned off by the spin especially in NST and Star.


(ii) The victory of DAP, Keadilan and PAS in many areas showed that voters do not buy the argument that the Chinese won’t support PAS and DAP won’t get Malay votes. As Dr. Farish Noor reported from the PAS Headquarters in Kota Baru on Saturday night (polling night), Kelantan PAS supporters cheered when the DAP gained control of Penang. So the notion Malays won’t support DAP was debunked that night in Kota Baru.


(iii) Makkal Sakhti (People Power), the cry of HINDRAF, caused a tidal wave of support from the Indian community towards the opposition. This seismic shift of Indian voters contributed to the defeat of many Barisan Nasional candidates, not only MIC candidates.


(iv) The Barisan Nasional’s brand of race-based politics is no longer an attractive proposition to voters. Chinese voters deserted MCA and Gerakan. Indian voters swung away from MIC. Many Malay voters switched to Keadilan, making Keadilan the biggest opposition party with 31 parliament seats. The Opposition parties won, not on race-based issues but across a range of issues that cuts across ethnic lines. The MCA and MIC lost whilst trying to portray themselves as defenders of their race. UMNO lost ground to Keadilan even with Anwar calling for an end to NEP. Is this then, a new paradigm for Malaysian politics that Malaysian voters are more taken in by wider national issues such as corruption, crime, cost of living, social justice and human rights which cuts across all ethnic groups rather than narrow ethnic issues that favour any particular race? Even MCA championing the cause of Chinese schools didn’t get much support from the Chinese community. But, PAS delivered votes to DAP and Chinese voters supported both PAS and Keadilan. Should MCA remain purely a Chinese party when it lost more Chinese votes to the DAP or should it become a multi-racial party and widen its appeal to non-Chinese? This has set the stage for a new era of multi-racial politics in Malaysia, perhaps the beginning of a two-party system which is healthy in any democracy.


(v) The loss of Penang, Kedah, Selangor and Perak can perhaps be partially attributed to complacency in the Barisan Nasional camp. Over-confidence in a proven track record may be another factor. In Penang, the non-Malay voters were unhappy with Gerakan for being unable or unwilling to stand up to UMNO. However, the Opposition’s ability to capture, in particular, Penang and Selangor, the jewels in the crown so to speak, and even Perak to a lesser extent, will enable DAP and Keadilan to attempt to provide a new model of governance, which if they succeed, could further strengthen their grips on these states in the next General Elections and extend their support in other states like Negeri Sembilan (remember earlier point: Barisan Nasional only have 4 seat majority in Negeri Sembilan). However, if the DAP and Keadilan mess up, they will lose their opportunity and the voters in the 3 states Penang, Perak and Selangor may revert to the Barisan Nasional. It is however, unlikely DAP and Keadilan will squander their chance. It is left to be seen if the new State Governments in Penang, Perak and Selangor can deliver. If so, expect them to control these states for at least two terms if the state governments are administered well with good governance, accountability and transparency.


(vi) The point has also to be made that never in the history of Malaysia has the Prime Minister ever lost his own home state. In Penang, UMNO/Barisan Nasional only retained 2 parliamentary seats, that of the Prime Minister and Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop. The 12th General Election by any reckoning is UMNO’s worst-ever performance, worse than in 1969 and 1999.

3. What Caused the Swing to the Opposition

The political tsunami was brought about by various factors, foremost of which is the perceived arrogance of power. All racial groups – Malays, Chinese and Indians have the perception that the Barisan Nasional did not hear or listen to the voice of the people. The Barisan Nasional mishandled the Bersih and HINDRAF protests. This show no tolerance for public assemblies and no outlet for grievances which resulted in the aggrieved parties voting against the Barisan Nasional in the ballot boxes. The Barisan Nasional’s over-confidence and poor intelligence failed to identify growing anger and frustration of the people. The Prime Minister’s challenge to Opposition supporters not to demonstrate but to take it to the ballot box also made many fence sitters and opposition sympathizers to vote for the opposition. The Barisan Nasional failed to effectively read the mood on the ground. Many urban voters in particular the fence sitters were put off by the propaganda, spin and one-sided coverage on TV and in NST and Star.

A contributory factor could be internal bickering over the choice of candidates within the Barisan Nasional component parties not only in UMNO but also in MCA and Gerakan. Apart from the above, other factors also contributed to the unprecedented swing in support to the Opposition. These can be attributed as the 9C’s:-

(i)                 Change : A massive mood swing brought about by the opposition’s promise of change and reform.

(ii)                 Crime : Growing anger at the seeming inability of the Federal Government to tackle crime effectively.

(iii)               Cost of Living : Rising frustration over increases in the cost of living.

(iv)              Corruption : Growing perception that corruption has worsened over the past four years. (v)               Courts : Disgust over the Lingham enquiry and concern about judicial independence.

(vi)              Convergence of Issues : All these issues coming to a head at the same time and perception that government is not listening or effectively addressing them. There is really no one single big issue but a convergence of issues that caused people to be dissatisfied and angry with the Barisan Nasional.

(vii)             Communications Technology : The power of the internet and blogs to provide alternative information, that is downloaded, printed and distributed even to kampungs and new villages. With the spin in NST, more people trust the blogs more than the mainstream media.

(viii)            Credible Leadership : For the first time, the Opposition was able to present credible leadership and credible alternatives. The Anwar factor is pivotal. More than the 1998 reformasi campaign this year is much more an Anwar-coordinated campaign. DAP, Keadilan and PAS put up young, credible candidates. Lim Guan Eng, a Monash economics and accounting graduate, taking charge of Penang instead of his father Lim Kit Siang provided a younger and less belligerent face to the electorate backed by credible candidates like Prof. Ramasamy, Lim Chin Tiong and Jeff Ooi.

(ix)              Campaign Strategy : The Barisan Nasional’s campaign strategy was much of the same. The old school approach – some carrots and sticks. It offered development on the one hand, it threatens on the other, warning the Chinese and Indian communities that they will have no representation in government. The Chinese and Indian voters didn’t buy this argument this time. At one point in Penang, feedback from many Chinese voters is they don’t mind not even having a Chinese Chief Minister to teach the Barisan Nasional a lesson. Promises and fear didn’t work this time. UMNO also took Malay voters for granted. On the other hand, the Opposition’s strategy was low-key, humble and non-threatening. PAS didn’t speak of an Islamic State. DAP didn’t campaign to capture Penang as was the case during Tanjung I, II and III. All DAP asked for was to deny Barisan Nasional two-thirds majority both in Penang and in Parliament. This softer approach compared to Kit Siang’s aggressive style in 1990, 1995, 1999 won DAP many sympathetic votes. The use of blogs as alternative media was also highly successful.

For the Chinese voters, memories don’t fade easily. Often politicians tend to think people have short memories. But the Chinese voters are still upset and aggrieved over the waving of the keris incident at UMNO Youth Assemblies and the racial rhetoric in the 2006 UMNO General Assembly. Chinese voters also perceived MCA and Gerakan to be too subservient to UMNO. For the Indian voters, HINDRAF was a key factor. The power of Makkal Sakhti (People’s Power) is real and translated into votes for the Opposition throughout the country where there are sizeable number of Indian voters. For Malay voters, Anwar provided an alternative leadership. He read the Malay mood well. To the Malay voters in Anwar’s campaign speeches, the NEP because of its over-obsession with Bumiputra equity, benefitted only UMNO Puteras and didn’t benefit the ordinary people in the rural heartland. UMNO Youth was also perceived to be brash and arrogant.

4. Looking Ahead

What the 12th General Election provided is a timely wake-up call to all political parties. They need to change, reform and deliver. For the Barisan Nasional, it means reinvention to stay relevant. For the Opposition in control of the 5 State Governments, it means the need to deliver what they promised. Can they work together? The question, looking ahead, is how UMNO will react. Will it be magnanimous and learn the right lessons? Will it change and reform from within and lower racial rhetoric to win back non-Malay support or will it up the ante to become even more ultra-Malay to retain whatever Malay support it still has? Will UMNO remain united and cohesive or will there be a scramble for positions in its coming General Assembly and party elections? The internal dynamics in UMNO in the lead up to party elections need to be watched.

For the Opposition, the key question is whether the new State Governments in Penang, Perak and Selangor can perform and deliver and meet the expectations of the people? Will there be a witch-hunt against Barisan Nasional supporters? Will they be able to cooperate and work closely together? Will they gain the support of civil servants? Will they be able to cooperate and work with the Federal Government? What will be the impact on Government-Linked Companies controlled by or connected to these state governments? For the MCA and MIC, the question is whether they should continue to narrowly fight for Chinese and Indian interests or should they reinvent themselves to become multi-racial parties like DAP and Keadilan and champion wider national issues such as corruption, human rights, judicial independence and economic opportunities.

For the Gerakan and PPP, the key question is whether they should continue to exist and if so, what is their niche in Malaysian politics? Should they bring about the merger of smaller parties in the Barisan Nasional including those in Sabah and Sarawak? Will the 2008 Election lead to the emergence of a two-party system in Malaysia? For the Prime Minister, this is an opportunity to clean house. To listen more to the voice of the people and not to be disconnected to the feelings on the ground. We have in Pak Lah a decent man, a dedicated and pious Muslim. He should use his strength to reinvent himself and renew UMNO and Barisan Nasional. Credit ought to be also given to the Prime Minister for providing more democratic space and a fairer, freer election as well as for his stoic acceptance of the democratic voice of the people, and for not reacting ala the midnite snatch in Sabah in the mid-1980’s or having an Operasi Lallang or May 13/NOC type reaction. There is clearly a need to review certain National Policies that causes unhappiness and decisiveness. Will the Barisan Nasional leadership, be able, perhaps more willing to rise to the occasion to bite the bullet?


In the final analysis, despite the massive swing to the opposition, the Barisan Nasional still remained in office at Federal level and has a comfortable majority to provide continuity and political stability. This analysis provides some key facts and pose some key questions that need to be pondered over in the days and months ahead. Whatever it is, Malaysian politics post March 8, 2008 will not be the same again. It is time for a new beginning. A new era has begun. More importantly, to note that the morning after, most surveys showed that many Malaysians from all races and different walks of life felt good over the election outcome. Dated: 13th March 2008





By Asli