Malaysia Election Around the Corner?

With Sodomy II out of the way, look forward to March polls -- maybe or maybe not

With the Sodomy II trial of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim now out of the way, it is probably time to start thinking seriously about Malaysia's 13th general election, which most observers -- but not all -- believe will be called in March, during school holidays when the classrooms are empty.

Despite euphoria on the part of the three-party opposition coalition, the end of the trial doesn't mean that Anwar's troubles are over. One political observer in Kuala Lumpur told Asia Sentinel that the United Malays National Organization, the lead party in the ruling national coalition, will probably do its best to discredit him in other ways.

Although he was declared not guilty, the image of the opposition leader as a sexual deviant has probably been planted in a lot of Malaysian minds. Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, Anwar's accuser, appears to have no intention of going away. He has asked the attorney general to appeal the acquittal and is tweeting and texting his outrage and innocence to anyone who will read them. UMNO could well put him on the trail to demand denied justice at every campaign stop.

However, Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak carry plenty of baggage of their own. A long series of scandals within the party bear the hallmarks of being pushed by various Umno factions to cripple each other. That isn’t to say the snap poll won’t come off. But there are headwinds. The party held its annual general assembly in December and was expected to come out fighting. There was plenty of harsh rhetoric that made it sound as if Umno is besieged on all sides by threatening foes from both inside and outside the country – particularly from Christians, and particularly Chinese ones.

Najib himself concluded the conclave by pounding the war drums in stark terms, outlining a dark future if the opposition were to win, saying that: “This is the fate that will befall us if Umno loses power. Who will uphold the symbol of Islam? Who is capable of protecting the rights and agenda of the Malays? Who will continue to honour our Malay rulers?”

Massive scandal derails party conclave
Almost simultaneously with the annual general assembly, however, Umno found itself in a massive scandal involving the family of Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, the head of Wanita Umno, the women’s wing of the party and minister for Women, Welfare and Community Development. It has been impossible to wish the scandal away as a ploy by the opposition because it was exposed in September by Malaysia’s Auditor General.

As some observers have pointed out, it is also damaging because it involves agriculture, and particularly cattle – something Umno’s rural constituency can understand in all of its ominous implications. The matter involves the National Feedlot Corporation, which was given RM250 million (US80 million) in a government soft loan and was established to slaughter as many as 60,000 cattle a year by halal, or religiously accepted, methods. However, NFC has never slaughtered 10 percent of the projected total and has since scaled back its target to 8,000 head but hasn’t been able to meet that target either. The agreement to establish the company, made when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was prime minister, was okayed by Muhyiddin Yassin, the agriculture minister at the time and now the deputy prime minister.

None of Shahrizat's family had any experience in cattle production or beef supply prior to the establishment of the company. It appears that much of the money—as much as RM131 million -- was poured into things that had nothing to do with feeding cattle but instead into cars, condos and travel, among other things.

The matter has been seized upon with a good deal of glee by the opposition. One Malay businessman source said “there may be other revelations as to how the money for cattle was used which may implicate the number 2 guy.” That is Muhyiddin Yassin, the deputy prime minister. “This thing has been a lifeline for the opposition who are sitting on a thumb drive full of info which they are revealing in bits and pieces,” he said.

Intermixed with this are reports that both Muhyiddin’s and Najib’s private secretaries have been accepting funds of at least RM10,000 per month from private parties for reasons that are unclear. The allegations against each – complete with pictures of checks -- are suspected of having been leaked by the Muhyiddin and Najib factions against each other. There reportedly is yet another massive scandal waiting in the wings, involving hundreds of millions of dollars in connection with the Iskandar project in Johor across the strait from Singapore. Documents are believed to have been made available to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission that are said to implicate former lieutenants of former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Some sources have said the Shahrizat matter and shortcomings by other ministers argues for a cabinet reshuffle prior to any election. Certainly, Shahrizat is expected to be dropped as a candidate in the next election, whenever it is to be held, and that probably her husband will be charged at some point.

Continuing allegations of corruption have cost the country four places in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, dropping it to a still relatively respectable 60th. But it is the third straight year the country has slipped in the perceptions index – all three occurring on Najib’s watch. Although the mainstream media, all of which are owned by the component parties of the Barisan have tended to downplay the corruption reports, it is estimated that 41 percent of Malaysians now have access to the Internet – and a huge flock of opposition bloggers and websites, some of which, such as Malaysian Insider and Malaysiakini, are very professionally produced, and which pull no punches on reporting corruption and government mismanagement.

Part of the problem for Umno, a party source says, is getting divisional warlords to make way for winnable candidates in races that have become competitive now that the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition has become a genuine movement rather than a ragtag group of parties cobbled together by Anwar. These are old hands that refuse to give away to younger, more attractive and educated candidates.

It is a longstanding problem borne out by the fact that Rais Yatim, the information minister and an Umno Supreme Council member, said after the December conclave that those not selected must refrain from sabotaging the party. It is significant enough that the Mahathir wing of the party is contemplating demanding that party members sign a loyalty oath. A Penang district member, Musa Sheikh Fadzir, proposed the establishment of a General Election Disciplinary Committee to take action against those who go against the party in the upcoming polls.

Added to this are concerns that the party isn’t appealing strongly enough to young, urban Malays, turned off by infighting and corruption, who have been drifting towards Parti Islam se-Malaysia, or PAS, which has rebranded itself as a secular party, and to a lesser extent to Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat.

According to the Neilsen rating agency, Malaysia’s highest Internet usage is recorded among the young -- of people aged 20-24: 57 percent use the Internet regularly, spending an average of 22.3 hours online per week. Despite considerable publicity in recent weeks over a demand that the party return to its Islamic roots by former executive committee member Hasan Ali and his confederate, Nasharudin Mat Isa, a former PAS deputy president who was supplanted by the new moderate team, other sources say the party remains perhaps the most disciplined in the three-party opposition.

The biggest of the three opposition parties, PAS is continuing to work to appeal to urban voters. It is a dramatic illustration of the change in Malaysian society. According to the CIA World Factbook, 72 percent of the country’s 28.7 million people are now living in cities. Although Malays make up the preponderance of the other 28 percent, the rural roots of both Umno and PAS are vanishing – at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. Agriculture now comprises only 13 percent of the workforce, with industry, 36 percent, and services, 51 percent, making up the rest.

As evidence of the racial divisions in the country, a poll by the Merdeka Centre taken last year said 61 percent of ethnic Malays believe the country is going in the right direction as opposed to only 31 percent of Chinese. Ethnic Indian approval of the way the country is going, at a high of 66 percent, has fallen dramatically as well, to 39 percent despite Najib’s assiduous efforts to woo Indians back to the fold.

Najib, Rais Yatim and others have pointed to the decision to acquit Anwar as evidence of the Malaysian judiciary's independence, which is probably stretching the truth considerably. However, Umno and its leaders have been touting reforms of the hated colonial-era Internal Security Act, which allows for the indeterminate jailing of anyone the attorney general considers to be subversive, amendments to the Printing Presses and Publications Act and election law cleanup as well as other liberalizations as a step towards a new Malaysia.

Opponents regard these changes as cosmetic. The ISA is likely to be replaced by something akin to the Patriot Act, which was jammed through a panicked US Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC.

The government appears to have shot itself in the foot with the passage by the Dewan Rakyat, or parliament, of a Peaceful Assembly Act that opposition lawmakers, human rights activists and the country’s lawyers say was about as bad as the law it replaces as it bans street demonstrations and requires assemblies, meetings and processions to be held only on designated compounds.

Whatever strength Najib has within Umno and whatever hold Umno has on the ethnic Malay electorate, the Barisan Nasional appears almost certain to have to simply write off the Chinese vote, and perhaps an unknown portion of the urban Malay and Indian vote as well. According to one analysis, overall 50 percent of parliamentary seats are Malay majority, 25 percent are Chinese majority and mixed seats i.e. seats in which no ethnic group has a majority, 25 percent are from the east Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. To win Putrajaya, either the Barisan or Pakatan Rakyat must secure at least half of Malay majority seats -- 25 percent of the total parliamentary seats. For the Barisan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 5 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 20 percent from Sabah and Sarawak. For Pakatan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 20 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 5 percent from Sabah and Sarawak.

The other Barisan component parties are in considerably worse shape than Umno. The nearly moribund Malaysian Chinese Association is enmeshed in a scandal over the development of the Port Klang multimodal port facility, which has the potential to cost the country RM13 billion if all loan commitments are to be met. There is also hand-to-hand combat among leadership factions. In addition Chua Soi Lek, the head of the party, has been repeatedly taken to task by Malay supremacists such as Ibrahim Ali and his NGO Perkasa, which has the tacit backing of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, further disenchanting ethnic Chinese, who make up 23.7 percent of the population. They appear to have abandoned the party wholesale for the Democratic Action Party, which has been termed a Chinese chauvinist party.

Although East Malaysia appears solidly in the Barisan camp, if the state election held in Sarawak held on April 16 is any harbinger, the results indicate a clear abandonment of the Barisan by Chinese voters. The Chinese-based opposition Democratic Action Party won 12 of the 15 seats it contested, doubling its share of seats in Sarawak since the 2006 state elections. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, won three seats, including a rural one.

Thus the outcome appears to depend on how much PAS, having abandoned its Islamic goals, can make inroads among the Malay population, and particularly the urban Malay population. That 72 percent urban preponderance starts to look interesting indeed.

Many observers believe the most likely scenario is a Barisan win, but the historic two-thirds majority in parliament, which allowed the Barisan to dictate the country’s political and governmental agenda, is likely gone for good.

That doesn’t mean the opposition is faring much better. Pakatan Rakyat coalition continues to be beset with defections and arguments between the three component parties.

One of the things militating for an early election is increasingly dour economic forecasts. Second-half gross domestic product growth edged lower to 4.0 percent year-on-year as domestic demand weakened. By sector, according to the Malaysia Economic Institute of Research, services (6.3 percent growth) and manufacturing (2.1 percent) were the main growth engines. MEIR expects growth momentum to moderate as exports weaken on lacklustre performance by its main export partners, principally the United States. For 2012, MIER has revised its GDP growth forecast downward to 5.0 percent. Other research analysts, more pessimistic, put growth at 4.4 percent.

Although inflation seems relatively tame at a forecast 3 percent, Malaysia’s tripartite growth model, two segments of which are manufacturing and commodities and both directed for export, will be hit by what appears to be an almost certain 2012 economic downturn in Europe and sub-par growth in the United States barring some miracle. That leaves just fiscal pump-priming and the public sector economy to maintain growth. Federal government net borrowing is already forecast at RM45.1 billion for the full year of 2011 and RM43.6 billion in 2012. Najib has produced an election budget with some goodies for everybody but particularly the country’s ethnic Malays, including 1.3 million civil servants, one of the highest civil servants-to-population ratios in the world – the preponderance of them ethnic Malays. Civil servants will be offered tuition assistance for part-time studies

Other goodies include abolishment of payments for primary and secondary education, a “commercialisation innovation fund” to help out SMEs, a RM2 billion “shariah-compliant” financing fund for SMEs to be managed by selected Islamic banks – another bone thrown to Malay businessmen – as well as a review of capital gains taxes on property to stabilise the property market.

Najib and his troops have been hitting the campaign trail assiduously. But whether that means an election is imminent remains to be seen. Mahathir, the party’s stormy petrel, counsels waiting until all of the ducks are lined up. But he also counsels that the Barisan keep up the pressure to make the opposition believe the national polls could happen sooner – forcing them to spend money, time and energy to try to keep up with the government parties.

 Asia Sentinel.com

Even Dr M thinks Najib will lose but a debate with Anwar is still vital

THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE The polls are looming and Malaysia is gearing up for the most hotly-contested general election ever. Unlucky 13 may be the one that finally breaks the Barisan Nasional's 50-year dominance over Malaysian politics and welcomes the Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya.

With all things in the balance, it is only right that the people of Malaysia test the ability of its two prospective prime ministers on a public stage to discuss public policies. Yes, it’s high time we see a Najib Razak - Anwar Ibrahim debate.

For the record, the Republican Presidential candidates in the United States have already had 20 debates; which has helped narrow the field down to only 4 candidates. The debate floor is a great place to gauge each candidates stand on such things as immigration laws, English as the official language of America and setting up more jobs for unemployed Americans.

So why can’t Malaysia have a debate between Najib and Anwar?

Even Mahathir is worried Najib will lose

It is also telling that former premier Mahathir Mohamad has openly advised Najib not to debate Anwar. It immediately sparked talk that Mahathir was afraid the technically less competent Najib would disgrace himself in such a debate.

Indeed, the reason Mahathir trotted out defied logic, insisting that a 'debate' made sense only if Anwar shared the current the BN's views.

"What’s the point of debating when everyone knows his stand, and the debate won’t change this. It’s a different case if Anwar shares the government’s opinion on matters raised," the government media reported Mahathir as saying.

At the root of the BN's problems is that Najib Razak is merely caretaker prime minister, one who was appointed to the post by his party after an internal power struggle that ousted former premier Abdullah Badawi. Najib should have immediately called for snap general elections to win his own mandate from the people, but he chickened out, knowing that he was likely to perform worse than Badawi. Only one year remains of the BN's 5-year mandate now, with Parliament due to automatically dissolve in April 2013 regardless of whether Najib calls for polls.

On the other hand, Anwar has been prime minister in waiting for too long. Anwar Ibrahim is now the leader of the opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat, and if it wins more of the 222 seats in Parliament than BN, Anwar will finally become PM. Back in 90s, Anwar was already the hottest Malay leader in town. Then he was the Umno deputy president and even Mahathir feared him, so much so that sodomy charges were fabricated to bring down and jail Anwar.

At that time, Najib was nowhere in the radar, unable to command a following of his own. 

In fact, he claimed to be one of Anwar's biggest supporters then. And so did others like current Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Defense minister Zahid Hamidi. With Anwar released only from jail in 2004, it is not surprising that these men switched their allegiance to Mahathir, and now, they are keeping an eye on premiership for themselves. As for Mahathir, sure he would rush for the chance to be PM again - if Malaysians would vote for him that is - but basically, his efforts are now focused on getting his son Mukhriz to take over Umno and the premiership in the round after GE-13.

Paranoia only confirms Anwar's legitimacy to be PM

This is why since 1998, the BN government has gone to incredible lengths to keep denying Anwar his shot at the premiership. In fact, the change in the Malaysian political scene can be traced back to his detention under the dreaded Internal Security Act in 1999. This was the event that galvanised the opposition movement in Malaysia. And every political move the Umno-led BN has made since has been designed to keep Anwar out of the race for prime minister.

So silly is this thinking that many pundits say it is because of this very paranoia of Anwar, that Mahathir and gang have actually trapped themselves now. Always worried that justice will finally come and they will be made to answer for their misdeeds, they have helped themselves to huge chunks of the national wealth resulting in RM888 billion in illicit outflows to overseas accounts. They have also neglected their duties, the economy and the weak governance of the country have chased away massive foreign investment. At the same time, by their sheer insistence to 'shoot at sight' Anwar and his Pakatan cohorts, they have unwittingly confirmed Anwar's legitimacy as challenger for the Malaysian premiership.

So, barring other candidates who feel that they can garner the confidence of the Parliament as prime minister, these two gentlemen are Malaysia’s heavy-weights for the main contest. And should there be other candidates, they too should be allowed their chance to debate so that Malaysians as a whole benefit and get to choose the leader they believe can best deliver the job.

What does the Constitution say

Article 43 (2) states - The Cabinet shall be appointed as follows, that is to say: (a) the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House;

The key to being prime minister in Malaysia is that a member of the House of Representatives command the confidence of the majority of the members of that house. Malaysians vote in fellow citizens as members of the House of Representative and 'pass on' the responsibility of choosing the Prime Minister to these elected representatives. Trust is passed onto these reps to make the wisest choice to benefit all. Whether these reps betray their countrymen and instead vote based on instructions from 'higher authority' in their party or in line with bribes taken will determine whether they are re-elected in the next round.

So the people must keep tabs and do not take for granted their reps will not betray their trust. But how can the people of Malaysia gauge the capabilities of whom will best fit the role of Prime Minister? A public debate would do fine.

But Malaysians still think MPs are their bosses!

A public debate is a medium by which the public can see and gauge for themselves the candidates with aspirations to lead the nation. Any reservations can then be voiced out to their respective Members of Parliament and the voice of the people must then be taken into account when choosing the person that would command the confidence of the House of Representatives to be PM. It is a process by which the people of Malaysia can be and should be part of. How difficult it this? Is this not a hall-mark of a progressive and mature democracy?

Sad to say, in many parts of the country, the people feel beholden to the reps. They feel their MPs are their bosses and not the other way around. But allocations given to the MP to distributes to the needy are actually money belonging to the nation - the Malaysian people as a whole. The elected rep is just a person chosen to undertake this task and the basis for choosing him or her should be trust.

The MP's constituents chose him because they trust him. So he has to do right by them and not behave as if they owe him and need to thank him and be grateful to him. This is the problem with Malaysia and only a government that will not take advantage of the rural people and instead educate them on their rights should be elected in GE-13.

This is 2012 and Malaysia is already very late in the people awareness and empowerment game.

Cannot function without a script written out for him

Yet in true BN government-knows-best form, Najib Razak will not take part in a public debate. And Mahathir supports this fully, although the older man's reasons may be less flattering to Najib than the younger man realizes!

But why won't Najib take on Anwar. At 58, Najib should possess greater fire and derring-do than the 64-year-old Anwar.

Perhaps, it is because in a public debate, Najib Razak’s most obvious flaw will be on show. He is a 'scripted' man - and in a volatile environment of a public debate where scripts are written on the spot by oneself as one speaks - he would simply be dumbfounded. Yes, the cat is out of the bag. Without scriptwriters, Najib will have nothing to say. Unaided, Najib would fail miserably against Anwar Ibrahim, a man who has been tried, tested and tempered through all temperatures on the most public of forums including the two Umno-instigated sodomy trials.

Bear in mind, Anwar has been defending himself in since 1999. He was not only the fastest-rising and most popular Finance minister of the Southeast Asian region, but he  has borne the brunt of all sorts of attacks against his sexuality, morality, character and personality. Both in the public sphere and in the courts of law.

Winner is obvious, and there may be sniggers but ...

In an immediate face-off the winner is obvious. But Najib should not be so vain and shallow as to refuse a debate because he knows, like the rest of the nation, he will surely lose. He must adopt a more gung-ho attitude and not just roll over and die. Style is not really that important, neither is articulation. Facts and substance are.

This is what Najib, at 58, should learn. He is no longer 18 and trying to show off to his girlfriend. He is Prime Minister of Malaysia and Malaysians want to hear what he has to say. How can he just drop his head and pretend it is not important. Not only will his critics in the Pakatan have a field day ridiculing his cowardice, even his own people in Umno will doubt him even more. Does Najib not think Mahathir would not in private sneer at him and perhaps tell common friends that 'Najib is so useless, I have to come out and help him to get out of it!' Isn't this a very likely reaction, even if not from Mahathir, others in Umno will surely say so.

Above all, Najib owes his countrymen. They already know him and they are entitled to know whether he has more to him than he has shown so far. Really, he should recognize their rights. Otherwise, he should talking about his dad, Abdul Razak who was the second premier, all the time as if being Razak's son means he would never do anything to harm Malaysia. But is not keeping Malaysia backwards and allowing ruthless opportunists like Mahathir to call the shots a slap in the face to the memory of his dad. One really wonders if Razak would approve of Mahathir or perhaps would have been even worse than Mahathir if he had ruled Malaysia longer.

Reclaim your rights

Malaysians should reclaim their rights and their nation. A public debate is the basic building block of a democracy. It is not an elocution or a beauty contest but a forum where the ideas and policies of two or more different quarters can be publicly evaluated, and the people can make up their minds. The prime minister's post is the highest executive job in the land. Malaysians have a right to gauge the potential of each candidate for themselves and not be curtailed by what the Umno-BN chooses because it is not to their disadvantage.

Finally, the prime minister can be anyone who is a member of the House of Representative and not limited to president of Umno. And to leave no room for doubt as to how the prime minister is chosen, all candidates must be made to lay out their plans and ideas and aspirations for Malaysians to vet through and to eventually approve of - whether at the ballot boxes on their own or through their reps in Parliament.

This is playing fair, this is playing fair according to the rules of democracy. This is the sign of a mature democratic country. If Najib or any other candidate in the future - whether from BN or Pakatan - refuses to debate in the run-up to any major election, he or she should not even be nominated to contest.

by  Maclean Patrick & Wong Choon Mei

Malaysia Chronicle

The Remarkable Anwar Ibrahim - Loh Gwo-Burne

This is not an article about Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy trial. But in case anyone is interested to hear my two-cents worth on the trial, I have two questions. How many people do we know who have actually been charged with sodomy? And do you think if Dato Seri Anwar will be charged if he were not an opposition leader?

My answers are 1 and NO

Furthermore, for those paying attention during the VK Lingam video, would have heard Anwar’s case being mentioned. What does it mean? It means the BN government would go to great length to ascertain that Anwar will be put behind bar until his political carrier expires, if not for his entire life.

On that fateful day Lingam revealed to my father and myself that Mahathir and his political cronies had planned an Umno led coalition be cemented in power as long as time could be projected, and in the name of Malaysian prosperity and peace, Anwar must be destroyed. In this conspiracy all sectors of government including the civil service, judiciary, and police will be under their direct or indirect control and influence! The reach of this conspiracy even extends its reach into the private sector.

The financial system in the country be manned by trusted cronies, Petronas and its agents guarded by friends and family, the private power suppliers, utilities, media, trading companies, precious little was spared. One man stood to threaten the conspiracy, so he must be destroyed.

And what will happen on the 9th of January? I think all the cards are with the conspirators. If recent trends are any indication, then I think Anwar will be found not guilty, to buy some good will. Instead moving the grounds of execution will be moved to the court of Appeal (probably after the elections). But all the cards are with the conspirators, we can but wait.

With that out of the way, I want to talk about my observations about one of the most remarkable person I have had the pleasure to encounter and spend time with. He is my boss, but I will try to be objective. So let’s make it clear that Anwar is by no means perfect, only Umno Barisan Nasioanl is perfect and does no wrong, so Anwar from time to time makes mistakes. The important thing is that he admits it.

The Inspirational

The first time I met Anwar Ibrahim was about 4 years ago together with my father. I was never an Anwar fan, also I am a skeptic by nature making me someone quite difficult to convince. I have lost all hope for Malaysia, and like many Malaysians have decided to move abroad. I was in a very good place in my life. Anwar struck me with his warmth and modesty. He spoke at length on his beliefs and his political vision for Malaysia. He spoke about his views regarding race relations and international relations of Malaysia. He spoke at length about his mistakes and what he learnt during his ordeals. When I left the meeting I left with a change of heart. I left the meeting loving Malaysia more.

For the first time in my life I felt hope for Malaysia. I realised that there is something worth fighting for. Suddenly I started to see everyone as Malaysians instead of just Malay, Indian, Chinese, Dayak, etc. I was inspired to see hope for our nation and its people... Anwar inspires. Anwar inspired with his sincerity and  conviction. Anwar inspired with his vision. And directly and indirectly millions were inspired. Just five years ago, who believed that our nation was standing on the verge of change? Who would believe that the mighty Umno would need to start listening to the rakyat?

Of course Anwar was not the only source of inspiration. But at a time where some tremble at the sight of the moon on a green flag, and others who hurl insults at the sight of a rocket. He more than anyone else was the glue to bind us all together. He more than anyone else led us to each other, and today together we stand at the brink of a regime change in Malaysia. Without Anwar, how many would have believed we would have even got this far?

The Resilient

The remarkable thing about the survey which registered 51% liked our prime minister, while 39% likes Anwar. A friend commented that PR should be worried since Najib apparently was more popular than Anwar. But I offered a reversed conclusion that it is BN who should be concerned. Why?

Simple. For four years you have all the kings’ horses and men, all the newspapers, radio, cybertroopers attack one man. You went so far as to dig out the old play book and charge him with sodomy. You even have a crony get his own brother to impersonate this man in a porno production. All these while, all the mainstream media treats everyday as "denitrify our prime minster day". Even going as far as to issue official national sermons for friday prayers telling all good muslims to offer undivided loyalty and obedience to our great Prime Minister and friends. After four years of this and you find you are only 10% ahead, wouldn't you be worried?

In other words we need to appreciate one thing. Anwar is extremely resilient. Anyone else subjected to this intensity of abuse would have thrown in the towel long ago, anyone else would have fallen ages ago. Yet, Anwar still stands tall and strong.

In fact through the waves of onslaughts directed at Anwar, I have never seen him visibly affected. Except during Zahrain’s fallout. For the first time I could see Anwar visibly sad, more from the loss of an old friend I sensed. Despite the unrelenting assaults, which would have crippled entire armies, Anwar still stands tall and strong, “this is because of the hard work and support from all of you” he would say. But in truth is we are the ones that should be thankful.

Not only because he continues to give us hope and inspiration, he also provides us shelter and protection. Imagine if there is no Anwar to draw the waves and waves of onslaught by the powers that be.

Imagine if all the PR leaders and YBs are subjected to what Anwar has to face every day, how many more of us would have fallen? How many more would have thrown in the towel? He stood there and drew the majority of heat upon himself, so the rest of us can collectively work towards the goal of a better nation.

The Remarkable

Sometimes a nation produces a person who is destined to shine not only within their nation, but on the international stage as well. Someone that will make our nation shine that much more brightly (Some might try, some might imitate, but you can’t pretend to be Princess Diana).

We in Malaysia are fortunate to have produced such a remarkable person. But it is also unfortunate that we choose to allow him to be shackled and weighed down. Or should I say that it is unfortunate that so many of us decide to stand by and allow him to be shackled.

But remarkably Anwar remains firm on his love of Malaysia and its people, remains determined to spend his life and blood in building the nation into the great nation we know we can become. He believes we can, I believe we need to.

Today our nation remains rooted unable to break free from being decidedly mediocre, but the truth is we are mediocre by choice rather than due to any disability. To a large extend this is where our Government has decided is the best place to be. And for 55 years there have been nothing the people could have done about it.

In a way we chose where we wanted to be. When the BN government was bulldozing the so called "peaceful" assembly bill through parliament, in spite of the widespread objections from the people, a BN YB said that the Barisan Nasional is passing this bill with the mandate of the people and if you don't like it then take over the government in the next elections if you can.

The Remarkable Mr. Anwar Ibrahim says we can, do you hear him?

Gwo-Burne Loh

PKR MP for Kelana Jaya

Malaysia's Fading Opposition

Dogged by disorganization and allegations of sex scandals, the Pakatan coalition looks in trouble

Three years ago the opposition Pakatan Rakyat's victorious sally in the 2008 general election seemed to have Malaysia's governing Barisan Nasional alliance on the ropes. Then only a Cassandra would have predicted that Pakatan's successes would appear so hollow so soon.

State elections in Sarawak loom, supposedly the last campaign for Chief Minister Taib Mahmud, just the kind of long-standing Barisan potentate that Pakatan was supposed to sweep away. Instead, the only question is how big a majority he will win. Few doubt it will be less than two thirds.

Far from charging at the head of his troops, Pakatan's charismatic leader, Anwar Ibrahim, is suspended from parliament and distracted not only by his second, interminable sodomy trial but now also by the allegation that he is the star of a sex tape (by way of variation, with a woman) produced by a trio collectively known as "Datuk T."

If the tide of filth through which Anwar must wade is politically motivated – and whatever the truth of the charges against him, no one believes they stem solely from an earnest desire for rectitude in the private lives of MPs – some of it still sticks. Visiting Kuala Lumpur recently, Anwar's former adviser Ziauddin Sardar told me that as long ago as 1996 he predicted that the then deputy PM's enemies would try to fell him by bringing up sodomy.

"Simply accusing him of bribes, cronyism and having affairs with women was not going to work. Those who know Anwar know he is above such things," said Sardar, now a prominent UK-based critic and commentator. "They had to find something unthinkable, something the Malays had a deep aversion for."

The problem is that while Sardar may declare him "a man of unshakeable integrity," who "cannot be bought, bribed or forced to deviate from the path of honesty," there are plenty who are not so sure. His nemesis and onetime boss, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, said that Anwar admitted to "affairs with women" in his just-published memoirs, claiming that prior to his ousting, his former deputy told UMNO's supreme council "he had done nothing unusual and insisted that everyone had done such things."

Not all believe the good doctor, of course; nor might they listen too closely to former colleagues in government who remember a not-quite-so saintly figure.

But Anwar's cause was dealt a blow from the home side earlier this year when reports highlighted the fact that although he later changed his mind, the DAP chairman Karpal Singh (subsequently Anwar's defence lawyer), also once accused him of sodomy, raising the issue in parliament in 1997 and asking the government to act against the then deputy PM. Even in liberal circles, observers with no great affection for the BN privately express the strong suspicion that Anwar might have indulged in hanky panky, possibly with both sexes.

These may be the tribulations of one man, but he is the man that matters: the only one who is, or who could be, a prime minister-in-waiting. And they are compounded by, and partly the cause of, those also being suffered by his party, PKR, and hence Pakatan as a whole.

Of Pakatan's three allies, the DAP gives the impression of being fighting fit, helmed by the still dynamic duo of Lim Kit Siang and Karpal, with an array of talent coming up the ranks and of an age to take over if necessary. In particular there is Lim's son, Guan Eng, who is also Penang's chief minister, Karpal's feisty orator son Gobind Singh, and the forensic economics whizz Tony Pua.

PAS, meanwhile, appears to have maintained its grip on its heartland in the peninsula and – important not only in wresting the Malay vote from UMNO but also to encourage non-Malays to overcome their reservations about casting their ballots for a party that used to think the Taliban had a good thing going -- its reputation for probity.

However much they try to paper over the cracks, though, the leftist, Chinese majority DAP and the Malay Islamists of PAS are allies of convenience, not soulmates. They cannot stop themselves from rowing over the extent to which Muslim laws should apply: for instance, PAS-controlled Kelantan's ban on the sale of "un-Islamic" lottery tickets, which the Chinese like to buy. Beyond good governance, their aims are ultimately incompatible.

So, how to keep these two together? This is supposed to be the role of PKR. And this is where Anwar's party is failing badly, struggling to convey what it is for, apart from being a vehicle for its leader's ambitions, and immensely damaging Pakatan Rakyat's effectiveness and chances at the next general election. It has lost a fifth of its parliamentary representation to defections and resignations since 2008, including in January N Gobalakrishnan, whose departure was particularly devastating given that he was a founder member of PKR who had given up a promising career within the Barisan Nasional (he had been Youth Leader of the BN component party, the Malaysian Indian Congress).

Other prominent figures such as former UMNO law minister Zaid Ibrahim, whose initial joining of PKR was hailed as a great coup, and the former vice president Jeffrey Kitingan, have left to start their own parties. When matters of import are in the air, the voice of PKR is drowned out by its own wranglings.

At a ceramah in the Empire Hotel, Subang, last weekend, PKR's communications director, Nik Nazmi, admitted that the party had serious issues with its image. "People don't understand what PKR is about apart from Anwar Ibrahim, that's what they tell me," he said. As for the loss of parliamentary seats, he explained that as PKR only had one MP and one state assemblyman before 2008, "everyone thought we were a lost cause. It was difficult to get good candidates." Of the 31 MPs who were then elected, he said, "some were not good enough. The jokers lost the plot and that's why they defected."

Anwar's daughter, PKR vice president Nurul Izzah, joined him in stressing that the disagreements with which the BN-supporting press has made much hay were a healthy sign. "They are important," she said. "Don't imagine that because the BN appears to have blanket agreement that it is so." They both seemed aware, however, that incidents such as the arguments between PKR and the DAP over seat allocation in Sarawak, in which Tony Pua accused PKR's negotiator of being "a little Napoleon", come across less as vibrant democracy at work than as evidence of a house divided.

The pair made impassioned pleas for PKR to be recognised as a unique driver for change: the first party in South East Asia to introduce One Member for One Vote for internal elections (hence, said Nurul Izzah, while turn out may have been low in last November's vote, 80,000 ballots were still cast "more than in any other party election"); and the only truly multiracial party in the country. "We are multiracial but Malay-led," said Nik Nazmi. "That is the only way you can convince the Malays about multiracialism."

The 29-year-old Selangor assemblyman is impressive, fluent and likeable. He even managed a good joke about how he knew the sex charges against his party leader were false. "I worked for him for two years as his private secretary. I'm quite good-looking, and nothing happened to me!" Nik Nazmi could be a future leader – but he is way too young for now. In terms of the top echelons who should be taking the reins while Anwar has to deal with his troubles, PKR is appallingly weak. Zaid Ibrahim could possibly have filled that role, even if his arrival and instant presumption to prominence put out the backs of veterans. A party with a greater grip on its long-term strategy would not have contrived to lose one of the clearest-eyed analysts of Malaysian politics, whatever the personality clashes his staying might have entailed.

For PKR and for Pakatan Rakyat, much is at stake here. "We have a chance for change at the next general election," said Nik Nazmi. "If not, it might be another 50 years." But the onus is on PKR to prove that is worthy of leading the opposition; otherwise PAS and the DAP may conclude that they are better off concentrating on their own strongholds rather than sacrificing too much for a greater effort that comes to nothing. "We have to improve ourselves," conceded Nurul Izzah. "That's a reality we are facing much more than PAS or the DAP."

Recognising that PKR's report card reads "must do better – much better" is a start. Translating that into action that revitalises the party and gives it the appearance of focus and energy is the hard part. The cause is not lost: BN leaders know that the personal approval ratings of prime minister Najib Tun Razak do not mean that the people have learned to love again the ruling coalition they rebuffed at the last general election. But if the opposition cannot recapture the spirit with which they effervesced only three years ago, their task is going to be to maintain their gains rather than push forward to take Putra Jaya, the nation's administrative capital. Anwar and his party, meanwhile, have become the weakest link. This was not how it was meant to be.

 

Sholto Byrnes is a contributing editor of the New Statesman 

- AsiaSentinel.com