Bankrupt in no time: Desperate BN set to raise borrowing limit again?

The Barisan Nasional has modified the Statutory Borrowing Ceiling at its whims and fancies over the past decade rendering meaningless the legal debt ceiling for Federal Government.

The Loan (Local) Act 1959 and Government Funding Act 1983 puts in place a 55% federal government debt limit relative to Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as determined by the Ministry of Finance (MoF). Based on the Government’s Economic Report 2011/2, our federal government debt will hit RM455.7 billion as at the end of 2011 which works out to 53.8% of our GDP, or a whisker away from the statutory borrowing ceiling.

However, what is worrying is the fact that the “statutory borrowing ceiling” has actually been raised multiple times by the Barisan Nasional (BN) Government over the past decade to “legalise” the federal government debt level which has been increasing at a much faster pace than our GDP.

The 55% statutory borrowing ceiling only came into effect in July 2009 by order of current Second Finance Minister Dato’ Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah. Prior to the revised limit, the limit was set at 45% in June 2008, barely 13 months before by the then Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Md Yakcop.

It was 5 years before that when the limit was raised to 40% in April 2003 by the then Second Finance Minister Dato’ Sri Jamaluddin Jarjis.

15% of GDP jump in just 6 years

Hence our statutory borrowing ceiling has been raised by 15% of our GDP in just 6 years. The question is if the ceiling is repeatedly raised with such nonchalance, why did the Government bother setting a limit at all? Given that our debt level is expected to increase beyond 55% over the next 2 years, are we expecting the Federal Government to once again raise the ceiling in Parliament to circumvent the breach?

In fact, we are extremely concerned that the Federal Government, which is mindful of their debt level relative to the GDP, is using all sorts of creative measures to by-pass the limit set by law.

It should be noted that the MoF will be raising approximately RM20 billion to fund the first phase of the Klang Valley MRT mega-project this year. However, based on the fact that the MRT was never debated in the 2012 Budget tabled in Parliament for approval last year, it is clear that the funding will be raised by a wholly-owned “special purpose vehicle” (SPV) known as Dana Infra, and guaranteed by the Government.

This way, the BN Federal Government kills two birds with one stone. Firstly, the debt raised will not be part of the Federal Government debt (because Dana Infra is “not” Federal Government) and hence will not be perceived to jeopardise our credit standings. This is despite the fact that all parties are expecting MRT to be a financially loss-making project and that the Federal Government will have to fund Dana Infra’s debt repayments at some point in the future.

Secondly, by placing the debt and expenditure of the MRT project in a SPV, such expenditure then escapes the purview of direct parliamentary oversight because it is never debated in Parliament as an official Budget item. As mentioned earlier, there is not a single line item in the 2012 Budget approved at the last parliamentary sitting for the purposes of constructing an MRT despite the fact that this will be Malaysia’s largest ever infrastructure project by far.

Creatiive manipulation will bankrupt Malaysia

Such creative manipulation of our federal government debt and expenditure is not limited to just the MRT project but many other multi-billion ringgit projects such as the construction of 74 police headquarters with government-guaranteed RM10 billion debt by MoF-owned Pembinaan BLT Sdn Bhd, or the proposed RM20 billion sukuk plan by Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB) to restructure the country’s water assets.

Governments all over the world, especially in developed countries like the United Kingdom and Germany, are now changing their laws to require such debts and contingent liabilities to be incorporated into the Government’s financial statement to ensure greater transparency and financial accountability. This is to avert a financial crisis which has already enveloped the Euro-zone over the past 2 years.

However, it appears that the Malaysian government is still sitting back and resting easy, while making full use of the “loop-hole” in our government financial reporting standards to continue to recklessly in-debt future Malaysians with none of the checks put in place.

Tony Pua is the DAP MP for PJ Utara

Najib's pot of gold at the end of the GE-13 rainbow

Prime Minister Najib Razak has delayed making firm decisions on almost every issue. Whether or not the delay is intentional, as he has been accused of being manipulative, he has chosen to let the RM250 mil NFC financial debacle involving minister Shahrizat Jalil simmer even though it could trigger a backlash in public sentiment for his Umno party.

He has also cut adrift the MCA, Gerakan and MIC, causing these parties to further weaken in the eyes of their communities. Even former premier Mahathir Mohamad tried harder, sending his deputy Ghafar Baba to troubleshoot at the components and help repair their common Barisan Nasional boat. But perhaps, the BN can no longer be saved anymore.

Only once since inheriting the premiership from Abdullah Badawi in April 2009 has Najib tried to steer a direction for the BN. It was during the Sarawak state elections in April 2011, and Najib failed - miserably. He had set out to 'tame' Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud but ended being embarrassed by the wily older man.

Taib managed to make Najib look foolish without even raising his voice. All he had to do was to ignore Najib's desperate and rather rude call for him to step down. It was after the Sarawak election was over that Malaysians, especially from the peninsula, realized that Najib is not omnipotent as his Umno party likes to make him out to be.

So 'soft' was Najib that he could not even control his wife Rosmah Mansor or stop her from grabbing the First Lady of Malaysia title, which is actually meant for the Queen. Needless to say, he also had zero luck in getting her to stop her shockingly expensive shopping sprees.

Suddenly on the offensive

Suddenly, beginning 15th February, Najib started to move with more visible energy. He started to hurl verbal missiles at arch rival Anwar Ibrahim, calling the latter "two-faced" over an interview with the WSJ on the Israel-Palestin issue, which was also stirred up by Umno newspaper Utusan.

His Umno elder Mahathir Mohamad fired the next volley, calling Anwar a spy out to help US and Israel set up a puppet government in Malaysia to overthrow BN. This is a perennial hot topic for Umno, especially in the olden days whenever it wanted to galvanize the Muslims into a voting bloc for the BN.

Even Anwar believes GE-13 is close at hand, and has forecast a May-June 2012 balloting day. But this may be too soon. November 2012 might be the more likely, given the money-raising schemes Najib has in mind for Umno, BN and of course, himself.

Cleaning up his image and tarnishing Anwar at the same time

In one of his swifter moves, Najib has managed to convince Perak Mufti Harussani Zakaria that he and Rosmah were not bad Muslims for attending Thaipusam in Batu Caves, Selangor.

Harussani had shocked the nation when he chastised the couple for being 'un-Islamic' and attending an "idolatrous" event. Within 2 days, national TV1 showed Najib meeting with the Mufti and clarifying the Batu Caves trip.

Sure enough, Harussani admitted his mistake and declared a clean bill of Islamic health for both PM and wife.

UMNO attacks PR and prepares to win Selangor

On the same night, TV3 held a talk show with Umno's Satim Diman, the Selangor Opposition Leader and Sohaimi Shahadan, the Umno Youth Exco member. Both men rushed to highlight all the things that Pakatan failed to deliver in its election manifesto.

The week before, Najib confirmed the appointment of Ong Tee Keat as the Selangor BN Chief. Last night amid criticism that his grand plans for recapturing Selangor was floundering as he could not even name a Mentri Besar of chief minister-designate, he appointed Mohd Zin, the Sepang Umno Member of Parliament to be the BN election campaign coordinator for Selangor.

Speculation has swirled that Tee Keat may even be made the Selangor Menteri Besar if he gives up his Pandan parliamentary seat for a state assembly one. If true, this would indeed be a controversial move as it would be the first time Selangor had a non-Malay MB. However, all this would depend on the grace of the Sultan.

Umno has also begun efforts to win back Kedah

Umno's hand was sighted stirring unrest in the Pakatan Rakyat-led Kedah state government, with MCA-linked association heads lodging complaints that assistants to the Pakatan state assemblymen had demanded 'rebate' of between 25 to 30% of the funds due to them.

This was followed by BN declaring Kedah a 'winnable' state.

Indelible ink

The Election Commission has just announced that indelible ink will be used in the GE-13, and that stock ordered must be used within three months of its shelf-life. So, the moment Customs announces the arrival of the first batch of ink, Malaysians will know GE-13 will be within three months from then!

Strengthening BN

Najib has also announced three new affiliate members to BN, namely Gabungan Wawasan Generasi Felda, Persatuan Bekas Anggota Kemas Malaysia and Persatuan Kontraktor Melayu Malaysia. The three bodies have members all over Peninsular Malaysia, who will be mobilized to help BN win GE-13, focusing on the rural areas and servicing the constituents there.

Mahathir supporting the BN campaign

Mahathir has upped the ante, and is trying to frighten the Malays in particular, by accusing Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim of collaborating with the US and Israel to topple BN and set up a puppet government here.

The underlying message of course is that the fate of the Malays will be very uncertain under Pakatan Rakyat. At the same time Mahathir is trying to instil fear in the minds of the non-Malays that such a regime change will be resisted by the Malays. Violence could even break out, sending Malaysia to the dogs.

Najib not taking any action against Taib

After his April 16, 2011 lesson, Najib has given up on trying to push Taib out.

The PM is going to continue closing an eye to Taib plundering the wealth of the Sarawak people, so long as the CM delivers the parliamentary seats to BN in GE-13.

Effects of Budget handouts and economic growth

Najib is also confident that the feel-good factor from the various Budget 2012 cash handouts to students and lower-income families will work in BN's favor.

He is hoping the announcement by Bank Negara that Malaysia’s economic growth was 5.2 per cent, exceeding the previous 4.2 per cent forecast, will bolster confidence in his management of the economy.

But already, analysts complain the result was 'hiked up' and does not reflect a healthy trend at all  as it relied on consumer spending - at both government and private  level - to push up headline growth. Very glaring was the absence of growth in public and private investments.

But are UMNO and Najib really ready?

The answer is NO. Najib is still not happy with the present situation even though Rosmah has been conferred an honorary doctorate by Curtin University to help her redeem some credibility.

There is also talk that Najib has in the works a popularity survey that will show him far ahead of Anwar in the people's esteem. This 'survey' is being held back until he is confident enough to dissolve Parliament.

Najib not only wants to create a feel-good factor. He wants the people to regain confidence in the BN and help him achieve a two-thirds margin in Parliament. But even Rosmah would be able to tell him that might well be fat hopes!

Najib needs more time and money

Then, Najib also needs more money. It is significant that the Felda Global Ventures listing will hit the market in May-June. The IPO can be expected to jump on listing day and deliriously-happy Felda settlers can be expected to vote good-old Umno once again when called to the ballot box shortly thereafter.

The grapevine in the Ministry of Finance is buzzing with talk that Umno will siphon out every single sen of spare funding from all the other government bodies on the pretext of implementing projects across the nation. Actually, the money will be used in a gigantic vote-buying spree, much like Rosmah's jaw-dropping shopping trips.

The controversial 1Care will be bulldozed through, raising about RM11 billion for Umno-BN to siphon out once it is launched, perhaps by January next year. Umno will of course continue to milk the Employees Provident Fund.

The Felda listing, expected to hit RM21bil upon debut, will be controlled by Koperasi Permodalan Felda (KPF), which will become the single largest shareholder of the listed Felda Global Ventures entity with a 37 per cent stake. No wonder, Najib was insistent on making Isa Samad the KPF chairman. This will allow Umno and its proxies in Felda to cash out and cart away huge sums raised from the share sale.

PERKESO or Socso will also have its funds be diverted as well as Tabung Haji, the Umno-supported cooperatives, other statutory bodies and all the Government-Linked-Companies. Needless to say, these will all be called on to contribute huge portions of their resources to help Umno stay in power.

Pot of gold at the end of the rainbow

A question worth asking is, does Umno-BN really need so much money to hold GE-13? Obviously, the answer is NO. Najib and his cronies are also jumping on the bandwagon for their LAST GRAB, and Malaysians can be sure that the amounts they rake in will be many folds that actually spent on financing GE-13, including the 'allocations' set aside for vote-buying.

Call it institutionalized cheating or corruption, but it won't stop Najib. For his plan to be successful, Najib will need time and he is willing to wait even until nearing the end of his term in 2013. The proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is just too much to ignore. Not even Mahathir can frighten him into holding GE-13 earlier.

So given the current status of 1Care and the Felda listing, which are both still facing public resistance, GE-13 looks more likely to be held in November 2012 rather than in May-June. It could even be in 2013.

Malaysia Chronicle

Najib crowned Champion of Doubletalk by top US paper despite splurging millions on 'image'

What a deafening silence from Prime Minister Najib Razak! While the world shook its head over the FBC Media scandal, where his administration used Malaysian tax-payers money to ‘buy’ favorable mentions on international prime-time television, Najib is no where to be heard or seen. It could be he is hiding his head in shame but given his past record, the Malaysian PM doesn't feel remorse or guilt easily.

In a statement posted on the BBC website, the broadcaster said the “small number” of programmes that were aired on BBC World News between Feb 2009 and July 2011, broke the internal rules aimed at protecting its editorial integrity.

“These rules ensure that programmes are free, and are seen to be free, from commercial or other outside pressures,” read the statement.

Financial relationship

Although the nature of the programmes related to Malaysia were mentioned without much details, the BBC made it clear that 8 of these appeared to have a' financial relationship' with the Malaysian government.

After much public tongue-lashing from the opposition, Najib finally admitted to Parliament that it had paid RM84 million to FBC Media between 2007 and 2010 for ‘consultancy services, advice and management of a communication campaign’ to spruce up Malaysia’s image. Apart from painting a falsely flattering image image of himself, the documentaries also painted a rosy picture of Malaysia's oil palm industry and its treatment of indigenous peoples - which are in stark contract to the views from the ground.

British daily The Independent, the newspaper that broke the scandal, reported that the BBC would be apologizing to an estimated 74 million people globally over the matter. The report said viewers from “Kuala Lumpur to Khartoum” will be able to watch the broadcast which is available to 295 million homes, 1.7 million hotel rooms, 81 cruise ships, 46 airlines and 35 mobile phone platforms, at four different time zones. According to the BBC statement, the BBC Trust’s editorial standards committee had identified various breaches in editorial guidelines due to the errant programmes.

“It agreed that given the serious nature of the breaches an on-air apology to the audience was appropriate,” read the statement.

But not a word from Najib or his team. Such a public roasting, and yet Utusan, Star and all its media organs carried not a word on the matter.

Correct to demand an apology

So when Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng demanded an apology from the Prime Minister, he was cheered on by the public even though they Najib would pretend to ignore the entire incident or condemn it as being as "opposition-instigated" demand. But did Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat pay RM84 million to the UK publicity firm? Who was it who instructed FBC to polish Najib's image, give an overly glowing report about the benefits of consuming palm oil, and praise the BN's handling of indigenous people?

“Datuk Seri Najib Razak should direct his Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to apologise for paying RM84 million to burnish the Najib administration’s image... just as the BBC is apologising for accepting payments in exchange for a positive image for countries with a poor record of democratic practices and corruption,” Guan Eng wrote in a statement.

However, in a sad reflection of his caliber, Najib has chosen to hide his head in the sand.

The same goes for the UMNO-BN government he leads. They all seem content to stick their heads in the sand and wait for the whole matter to blow away. Who then apart from the opposition will keep an eye out for the Malaysian people? Will MCA ask Najib about the RM84 million sloshed down the drain? Will Gerakan, or the MIC? How about Umno?

Yet, it is more than just another embarrassing moment for Malaysia and one which Najib should apologize for. That is the minimum to restore some degree of the global esteem lost through the ill-judged and unethical act of paying a mercenary media firm to basically plant false news and disseminate it to an unsuspecting audience.

There was also APCO, Mr Cool and Ah Jib Gor ...

No doubt, following the FBC expose, Putrajaya ended its RM96 million contract with FBC, which Najib began in 2009. But FBC is not the only media scandal. In his vanity and thirst to be larger than life, Najib had signed on other public relation strategists including the Zionist-backed APCO Worldwide to polish his personal image.

Given his attack against arch rival Anwar Ibrahim for supporting a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, such an appointment is hypocritical to say the least, especially since Najib even gave APCO staff access to key communications facilities in the country. It is well-know that many of the top staff at APCO are former high-level officers at Shin Bet and Mossad, the Israeli secret services. What an awful joke and when Anwar, DAP chairman Karpal Singh, PKR leaders Azmin Ali and Sivarasa Rasiah took issue on the matter, fearing breach of national security, Najib had them suspended and locked out of Parliament for 6 months!

Indeed, APCO’s time in Malaysia was marked by controversy. So too was the most recent hire of a team purportedly comprising ex-staff of former British PM Tony Blair’s “New Labour” campaign. This group was tasked to turn Najib into a 'Mr Cool' and to reinvent him as a moderate reformist. Once the news leaked, it was clear Najib had bungled again, losing millions of public money. Malaysian either laughed or disapproved at the 'nonsense' he was dishing out. Even his 'Ah Jib Gor' Facebook website has failed miserably. Aimed to attract the Chinese, it has been taunted as being silly, in bad taste, and a desperate political move.

And the result - Najib crowned Champion of Doubletalk

Proof that Najib's exorbitant media scams are not working and instead backfiring comes in the form of a stinging rebuke from the highly influential Washington post editorial, which describes Najib's government as the "champion of doubletalk". Mind you, even President Obama and Hillary Clinton read the Washington Post. 

"His persecution has been facilitated by another champion of double-talk, the government of Malaysia, which claims to respect the rule of law but bundled Mr Kashgari onto a private Saudi jet Sunday in spite of a court order prohibiting his deportation," said the Washington Post.

The Post was referring to Saudi journalist Hamza Kashgari whom Najib's cousin and Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein illegally deported to face near certain death in his own country over several tweets the Saudi authorities deemed blasphemous. As human rights activists the world over have warned, if Hamza is executed, there will be blood on Najib's hand. 

So enough of the doublespeak. The game is up. You have been rumbled. Own up and apologize. Najib owes Malaysia an apology over the media scandals he created in his vanity, and for wasting the people's money so foolishly and flagrantly.

Malaysia Chronicle

Malaysia Election Around the Corner?

With Sodomy II out of the way, look forward to March polls -- maybe or maybe not

With the Sodomy II trial of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim now out of the way, it is probably time to start thinking seriously about Malaysia's 13th general election, which most observers -- but not all -- believe will be called in March, during school holidays when the classrooms are empty.

Despite euphoria on the part of the three-party opposition coalition, the end of the trial doesn't mean that Anwar's troubles are over. One political observer in Kuala Lumpur told Asia Sentinel that the United Malays National Organization, the lead party in the ruling national coalition, will probably do its best to discredit him in other ways.

Although he was declared not guilty, the image of the opposition leader as a sexual deviant has probably been planted in a lot of Malaysian minds. Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, Anwar's accuser, appears to have no intention of going away. He has asked the attorney general to appeal the acquittal and is tweeting and texting his outrage and innocence to anyone who will read them. UMNO could well put him on the trail to demand denied justice at every campaign stop.

However, Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak carry plenty of baggage of their own. A long series of scandals within the party bear the hallmarks of being pushed by various Umno factions to cripple each other. That isn’t to say the snap poll won’t come off. But there are headwinds. The party held its annual general assembly in December and was expected to come out fighting. There was plenty of harsh rhetoric that made it sound as if Umno is besieged on all sides by threatening foes from both inside and outside the country – particularly from Christians, and particularly Chinese ones.

Najib himself concluded the conclave by pounding the war drums in stark terms, outlining a dark future if the opposition were to win, saying that: “This is the fate that will befall us if Umno loses power. Who will uphold the symbol of Islam? Who is capable of protecting the rights and agenda of the Malays? Who will continue to honour our Malay rulers?”

Massive scandal derails party conclave
Almost simultaneously with the annual general assembly, however, Umno found itself in a massive scandal involving the family of Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, the head of Wanita Umno, the women’s wing of the party and minister for Women, Welfare and Community Development. It has been impossible to wish the scandal away as a ploy by the opposition because it was exposed in September by Malaysia’s Auditor General.

As some observers have pointed out, it is also damaging because it involves agriculture, and particularly cattle – something Umno’s rural constituency can understand in all of its ominous implications. The matter involves the National Feedlot Corporation, which was given RM250 million (US80 million) in a government soft loan and was established to slaughter as many as 60,000 cattle a year by halal, or religiously accepted, methods. However, NFC has never slaughtered 10 percent of the projected total and has since scaled back its target to 8,000 head but hasn’t been able to meet that target either. The agreement to establish the company, made when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was prime minister, was okayed by Muhyiddin Yassin, the agriculture minister at the time and now the deputy prime minister.

None of Shahrizat's family had any experience in cattle production or beef supply prior to the establishment of the company. It appears that much of the money—as much as RM131 million -- was poured into things that had nothing to do with feeding cattle but instead into cars, condos and travel, among other things.

The matter has been seized upon with a good deal of glee by the opposition. One Malay businessman source said “there may be other revelations as to how the money for cattle was used which may implicate the number 2 guy.” That is Muhyiddin Yassin, the deputy prime minister. “This thing has been a lifeline for the opposition who are sitting on a thumb drive full of info which they are revealing in bits and pieces,” he said.

Intermixed with this are reports that both Muhyiddin’s and Najib’s private secretaries have been accepting funds of at least RM10,000 per month from private parties for reasons that are unclear. The allegations against each – complete with pictures of checks -- are suspected of having been leaked by the Muhyiddin and Najib factions against each other. There reportedly is yet another massive scandal waiting in the wings, involving hundreds of millions of dollars in connection with the Iskandar project in Johor across the strait from Singapore. Documents are believed to have been made available to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission that are said to implicate former lieutenants of former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Some sources have said the Shahrizat matter and shortcomings by other ministers argues for a cabinet reshuffle prior to any election. Certainly, Shahrizat is expected to be dropped as a candidate in the next election, whenever it is to be held, and that probably her husband will be charged at some point.

Continuing allegations of corruption have cost the country four places in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, dropping it to a still relatively respectable 60th. But it is the third straight year the country has slipped in the perceptions index – all three occurring on Najib’s watch. Although the mainstream media, all of which are owned by the component parties of the Barisan have tended to downplay the corruption reports, it is estimated that 41 percent of Malaysians now have access to the Internet – and a huge flock of opposition bloggers and websites, some of which, such as Malaysian Insider and Malaysiakini, are very professionally produced, and which pull no punches on reporting corruption and government mismanagement.

Part of the problem for Umno, a party source says, is getting divisional warlords to make way for winnable candidates in races that have become competitive now that the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition has become a genuine movement rather than a ragtag group of parties cobbled together by Anwar. These are old hands that refuse to give away to younger, more attractive and educated candidates.

It is a longstanding problem borne out by the fact that Rais Yatim, the information minister and an Umno Supreme Council member, said after the December conclave that those not selected must refrain from sabotaging the party. It is significant enough that the Mahathir wing of the party is contemplating demanding that party members sign a loyalty oath. A Penang district member, Musa Sheikh Fadzir, proposed the establishment of a General Election Disciplinary Committee to take action against those who go against the party in the upcoming polls.

Added to this are concerns that the party isn’t appealing strongly enough to young, urban Malays, turned off by infighting and corruption, who have been drifting towards Parti Islam se-Malaysia, or PAS, which has rebranded itself as a secular party, and to a lesser extent to Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat.

According to the Neilsen rating agency, Malaysia’s highest Internet usage is recorded among the young -- of people aged 20-24: 57 percent use the Internet regularly, spending an average of 22.3 hours online per week. Despite considerable publicity in recent weeks over a demand that the party return to its Islamic roots by former executive committee member Hasan Ali and his confederate, Nasharudin Mat Isa, a former PAS deputy president who was supplanted by the new moderate team, other sources say the party remains perhaps the most disciplined in the three-party opposition.

The biggest of the three opposition parties, PAS is continuing to work to appeal to urban voters. It is a dramatic illustration of the change in Malaysian society. According to the CIA World Factbook, 72 percent of the country’s 28.7 million people are now living in cities. Although Malays make up the preponderance of the other 28 percent, the rural roots of both Umno and PAS are vanishing – at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. Agriculture now comprises only 13 percent of the workforce, with industry, 36 percent, and services, 51 percent, making up the rest.

As evidence of the racial divisions in the country, a poll by the Merdeka Centre taken last year said 61 percent of ethnic Malays believe the country is going in the right direction as opposed to only 31 percent of Chinese. Ethnic Indian approval of the way the country is going, at a high of 66 percent, has fallen dramatically as well, to 39 percent despite Najib’s assiduous efforts to woo Indians back to the fold.

Najib, Rais Yatim and others have pointed to the decision to acquit Anwar as evidence of the Malaysian judiciary's independence, which is probably stretching the truth considerably. However, Umno and its leaders have been touting reforms of the hated colonial-era Internal Security Act, which allows for the indeterminate jailing of anyone the attorney general considers to be subversive, amendments to the Printing Presses and Publications Act and election law cleanup as well as other liberalizations as a step towards a new Malaysia.

Opponents regard these changes as cosmetic. The ISA is likely to be replaced by something akin to the Patriot Act, which was jammed through a panicked US Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC.

The government appears to have shot itself in the foot with the passage by the Dewan Rakyat, or parliament, of a Peaceful Assembly Act that opposition lawmakers, human rights activists and the country’s lawyers say was about as bad as the law it replaces as it bans street demonstrations and requires assemblies, meetings and processions to be held only on designated compounds.

Whatever strength Najib has within Umno and whatever hold Umno has on the ethnic Malay electorate, the Barisan Nasional appears almost certain to have to simply write off the Chinese vote, and perhaps an unknown portion of the urban Malay and Indian vote as well. According to one analysis, overall 50 percent of parliamentary seats are Malay majority, 25 percent are Chinese majority and mixed seats i.e. seats in which no ethnic group has a majority, 25 percent are from the east Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. To win Putrajaya, either the Barisan or Pakatan Rakyat must secure at least half of Malay majority seats -- 25 percent of the total parliamentary seats. For the Barisan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 5 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 20 percent from Sabah and Sarawak. For Pakatan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 20 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 5 percent from Sabah and Sarawak.

The other Barisan component parties are in considerably worse shape than Umno. The nearly moribund Malaysian Chinese Association is enmeshed in a scandal over the development of the Port Klang multimodal port facility, which has the potential to cost the country RM13 billion if all loan commitments are to be met. There is also hand-to-hand combat among leadership factions. In addition Chua Soi Lek, the head of the party, has been repeatedly taken to task by Malay supremacists such as Ibrahim Ali and his NGO Perkasa, which has the tacit backing of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, further disenchanting ethnic Chinese, who make up 23.7 percent of the population. They appear to have abandoned the party wholesale for the Democratic Action Party, which has been termed a Chinese chauvinist party.

Although East Malaysia appears solidly in the Barisan camp, if the state election held in Sarawak held on April 16 is any harbinger, the results indicate a clear abandonment of the Barisan by Chinese voters. The Chinese-based opposition Democratic Action Party won 12 of the 15 seats it contested, doubling its share of seats in Sarawak since the 2006 state elections. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, won three seats, including a rural one.

Thus the outcome appears to depend on how much PAS, having abandoned its Islamic goals, can make inroads among the Malay population, and particularly the urban Malay population. That 72 percent urban preponderance starts to look interesting indeed.

Many observers believe the most likely scenario is a Barisan win, but the historic two-thirds majority in parliament, which allowed the Barisan to dictate the country’s political and governmental agenda, is likely gone for good.

That doesn’t mean the opposition is faring much better. Pakatan Rakyat coalition continues to be beset with defections and arguments between the three component parties.

One of the things militating for an early election is increasingly dour economic forecasts. Second-half gross domestic product growth edged lower to 4.0 percent year-on-year as domestic demand weakened. By sector, according to the Malaysia Economic Institute of Research, services (6.3 percent growth) and manufacturing (2.1 percent) were the main growth engines. MEIR expects growth momentum to moderate as exports weaken on lacklustre performance by its main export partners, principally the United States. For 2012, MIER has revised its GDP growth forecast downward to 5.0 percent. Other research analysts, more pessimistic, put growth at 4.4 percent.

Although inflation seems relatively tame at a forecast 3 percent, Malaysia’s tripartite growth model, two segments of which are manufacturing and commodities and both directed for export, will be hit by what appears to be an almost certain 2012 economic downturn in Europe and sub-par growth in the United States barring some miracle. That leaves just fiscal pump-priming and the public sector economy to maintain growth. Federal government net borrowing is already forecast at RM45.1 billion for the full year of 2011 and RM43.6 billion in 2012. Najib has produced an election budget with some goodies for everybody but particularly the country’s ethnic Malays, including 1.3 million civil servants, one of the highest civil servants-to-population ratios in the world – the preponderance of them ethnic Malays. Civil servants will be offered tuition assistance for part-time studies

Other goodies include abolishment of payments for primary and secondary education, a “commercialisation innovation fund” to help out SMEs, a RM2 billion “shariah-compliant” financing fund for SMEs to be managed by selected Islamic banks – another bone thrown to Malay businessmen – as well as a review of capital gains taxes on property to stabilise the property market.

Najib and his troops have been hitting the campaign trail assiduously. But whether that means an election is imminent remains to be seen. Mahathir, the party’s stormy petrel, counsels waiting until all of the ducks are lined up. But he also counsels that the Barisan keep up the pressure to make the opposition believe the national polls could happen sooner – forcing them to spend money, time and energy to try to keep up with the government parties.

 Asia Sentinel.com

Even Dr M thinks Najib will lose but a debate with Anwar is still vital

THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE The polls are looming and Malaysia is gearing up for the most hotly-contested general election ever. Unlucky 13 may be the one that finally breaks the Barisan Nasional's 50-year dominance over Malaysian politics and welcomes the Pakatan Rakyat to Putrajaya.

With all things in the balance, it is only right that the people of Malaysia test the ability of its two prospective prime ministers on a public stage to discuss public policies. Yes, it’s high time we see a Najib Razak - Anwar Ibrahim debate.

For the record, the Republican Presidential candidates in the United States have already had 20 debates; which has helped narrow the field down to only 4 candidates. The debate floor is a great place to gauge each candidates stand on such things as immigration laws, English as the official language of America and setting up more jobs for unemployed Americans.

So why can’t Malaysia have a debate between Najib and Anwar?

Even Mahathir is worried Najib will lose

It is also telling that former premier Mahathir Mohamad has openly advised Najib not to debate Anwar. It immediately sparked talk that Mahathir was afraid the technically less competent Najib would disgrace himself in such a debate.

Indeed, the reason Mahathir trotted out defied logic, insisting that a 'debate' made sense only if Anwar shared the current the BN's views.

"What’s the point of debating when everyone knows his stand, and the debate won’t change this. It’s a different case if Anwar shares the government’s opinion on matters raised," the government media reported Mahathir as saying.

At the root of the BN's problems is that Najib Razak is merely caretaker prime minister, one who was appointed to the post by his party after an internal power struggle that ousted former premier Abdullah Badawi. Najib should have immediately called for snap general elections to win his own mandate from the people, but he chickened out, knowing that he was likely to perform worse than Badawi. Only one year remains of the BN's 5-year mandate now, with Parliament due to automatically dissolve in April 2013 regardless of whether Najib calls for polls.

On the other hand, Anwar has been prime minister in waiting for too long. Anwar Ibrahim is now the leader of the opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat, and if it wins more of the 222 seats in Parliament than BN, Anwar will finally become PM. Back in 90s, Anwar was already the hottest Malay leader in town. Then he was the Umno deputy president and even Mahathir feared him, so much so that sodomy charges were fabricated to bring down and jail Anwar.

At that time, Najib was nowhere in the radar, unable to command a following of his own. 

In fact, he claimed to be one of Anwar's biggest supporters then. And so did others like current Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Defense minister Zahid Hamidi. With Anwar released only from jail in 2004, it is not surprising that these men switched their allegiance to Mahathir, and now, they are keeping an eye on premiership for themselves. As for Mahathir, sure he would rush for the chance to be PM again - if Malaysians would vote for him that is - but basically, his efforts are now focused on getting his son Mukhriz to take over Umno and the premiership in the round after GE-13.

Paranoia only confirms Anwar's legitimacy to be PM

This is why since 1998, the BN government has gone to incredible lengths to keep denying Anwar his shot at the premiership. In fact, the change in the Malaysian political scene can be traced back to his detention under the dreaded Internal Security Act in 1999. This was the event that galvanised the opposition movement in Malaysia. And every political move the Umno-led BN has made since has been designed to keep Anwar out of the race for prime minister.

So silly is this thinking that many pundits say it is because of this very paranoia of Anwar, that Mahathir and gang have actually trapped themselves now. Always worried that justice will finally come and they will be made to answer for their misdeeds, they have helped themselves to huge chunks of the national wealth resulting in RM888 billion in illicit outflows to overseas accounts. They have also neglected their duties, the economy and the weak governance of the country have chased away massive foreign investment. At the same time, by their sheer insistence to 'shoot at sight' Anwar and his Pakatan cohorts, they have unwittingly confirmed Anwar's legitimacy as challenger for the Malaysian premiership.

So, barring other candidates who feel that they can garner the confidence of the Parliament as prime minister, these two gentlemen are Malaysia’s heavy-weights for the main contest. And should there be other candidates, they too should be allowed their chance to debate so that Malaysians as a whole benefit and get to choose the leader they believe can best deliver the job.

What does the Constitution say

Article 43 (2) states - The Cabinet shall be appointed as follows, that is to say: (a) the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House;

The key to being prime minister in Malaysia is that a member of the House of Representatives command the confidence of the majority of the members of that house. Malaysians vote in fellow citizens as members of the House of Representative and 'pass on' the responsibility of choosing the Prime Minister to these elected representatives. Trust is passed onto these reps to make the wisest choice to benefit all. Whether these reps betray their countrymen and instead vote based on instructions from 'higher authority' in their party or in line with bribes taken will determine whether they are re-elected in the next round.

So the people must keep tabs and do not take for granted their reps will not betray their trust. But how can the people of Malaysia gauge the capabilities of whom will best fit the role of Prime Minister? A public debate would do fine.

But Malaysians still think MPs are their bosses!

A public debate is a medium by which the public can see and gauge for themselves the candidates with aspirations to lead the nation. Any reservations can then be voiced out to their respective Members of Parliament and the voice of the people must then be taken into account when choosing the person that would command the confidence of the House of Representatives to be PM. It is a process by which the people of Malaysia can be and should be part of. How difficult it this? Is this not a hall-mark of a progressive and mature democracy?

Sad to say, in many parts of the country, the people feel beholden to the reps. They feel their MPs are their bosses and not the other way around. But allocations given to the MP to distributes to the needy are actually money belonging to the nation - the Malaysian people as a whole. The elected rep is just a person chosen to undertake this task and the basis for choosing him or her should be trust.

The MP's constituents chose him because they trust him. So he has to do right by them and not behave as if they owe him and need to thank him and be grateful to him. This is the problem with Malaysia and only a government that will not take advantage of the rural people and instead educate them on their rights should be elected in GE-13.

This is 2012 and Malaysia is already very late in the people awareness and empowerment game.

Cannot function without a script written out for him

Yet in true BN government-knows-best form, Najib Razak will not take part in a public debate. And Mahathir supports this fully, although the older man's reasons may be less flattering to Najib than the younger man realizes!

But why won't Najib take on Anwar. At 58, Najib should possess greater fire and derring-do than the 64-year-old Anwar.

Perhaps, it is because in a public debate, Najib Razak’s most obvious flaw will be on show. He is a 'scripted' man - and in a volatile environment of a public debate where scripts are written on the spot by oneself as one speaks - he would simply be dumbfounded. Yes, the cat is out of the bag. Without scriptwriters, Najib will have nothing to say. Unaided, Najib would fail miserably against Anwar Ibrahim, a man who has been tried, tested and tempered through all temperatures on the most public of forums including the two Umno-instigated sodomy trials.

Bear in mind, Anwar has been defending himself in since 1999. He was not only the fastest-rising and most popular Finance minister of the Southeast Asian region, but he  has borne the brunt of all sorts of attacks against his sexuality, morality, character and personality. Both in the public sphere and in the courts of law.

Winner is obvious, and there may be sniggers but ...

In an immediate face-off the winner is obvious. But Najib should not be so vain and shallow as to refuse a debate because he knows, like the rest of the nation, he will surely lose. He must adopt a more gung-ho attitude and not just roll over and die. Style is not really that important, neither is articulation. Facts and substance are.

This is what Najib, at 58, should learn. He is no longer 18 and trying to show off to his girlfriend. He is Prime Minister of Malaysia and Malaysians want to hear what he has to say. How can he just drop his head and pretend it is not important. Not only will his critics in the Pakatan have a field day ridiculing his cowardice, even his own people in Umno will doubt him even more. Does Najib not think Mahathir would not in private sneer at him and perhaps tell common friends that 'Najib is so useless, I have to come out and help him to get out of it!' Isn't this a very likely reaction, even if not from Mahathir, others in Umno will surely say so.

Above all, Najib owes his countrymen. They already know him and they are entitled to know whether he has more to him than he has shown so far. Really, he should recognize their rights. Otherwise, he should talking about his dad, Abdul Razak who was the second premier, all the time as if being Razak's son means he would never do anything to harm Malaysia. But is not keeping Malaysia backwards and allowing ruthless opportunists like Mahathir to call the shots a slap in the face to the memory of his dad. One really wonders if Razak would approve of Mahathir or perhaps would have been even worse than Mahathir if he had ruled Malaysia longer.

Reclaim your rights

Malaysians should reclaim their rights and their nation. A public debate is the basic building block of a democracy. It is not an elocution or a beauty contest but a forum where the ideas and policies of two or more different quarters can be publicly evaluated, and the people can make up their minds. The prime minister's post is the highest executive job in the land. Malaysians have a right to gauge the potential of each candidate for themselves and not be curtailed by what the Umno-BN chooses because it is not to their disadvantage.

Finally, the prime minister can be anyone who is a member of the House of Representative and not limited to president of Umno. And to leave no room for doubt as to how the prime minister is chosen, all candidates must be made to lay out their plans and ideas and aspirations for Malaysians to vet through and to eventually approve of - whether at the ballot boxes on their own or through their reps in Parliament.

This is playing fair, this is playing fair according to the rules of democracy. This is the sign of a mature democratic country. If Najib or any other candidate in the future - whether from BN or Pakatan - refuses to debate in the run-up to any major election, he or she should not even be nominated to contest.

by  Maclean Patrick & Wong Choon Mei

Malaysia Chronicle

Recession is at the door and Najib is doing what he does best - NOTHING!

“The world economy is slowing sharply, and the euro region headed for recession this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday in a bleak update of global conditions. Overall, the world economy is expected to expand 3.25 percent in 2012 - down from the 4 percent projected by the IMF in the fall. 

That figure includes 8.2 percent growth in China, still the world’s most quickly expanding economy, and 7 percent in India. U.S. growth is forecast at 1.8 percent, the same as the fund projected in the fall.  In those cases and for the rest of the world, growth was being crimped by what remains the world’s major economic risk - the ongoing financial crisis in the euro zone. In a trio of reports released Tuesday morning, the IMF forecasts a “mild recession” for the 17-nation euro zone this year, and warns that matters could easily worsen”.

The above is indeed a grim outlook from the world financial body and will definitely affect the Malaysian economy, but what is Prime Minister Najib Razak doing about it?

Well, it looks like he is going to do what he does best - NOTHING!

To understand the man, you need to know his background

Having been brought up with a silver spoon, the 58-year-old Najib is oblivious to the actual predicament and hardship faced by the people, both hardcore poor and those who can hardly make ends meet.

As he is constantly being surrounded by all the good things in life, he can never understand what the word poor means. There may not be a good correlation for such an inference but the fact is - Najib is not able to and does not care for the people.

His main concern now is to ensure that UMNO-BN wins the 13th general election so that he can remain the prime minister of Malaysia. It is a simple one-item priority.

The rest is of little concern to him as he seems to show no worry at all about the state of our economy. He continues to hand out more goodies to the people with the latest being the RM500 per household that earns less than RM3,000 per month. How caring can this be when it is a one-off aid meant to entice votes for GE-13?

Long list of flops

Then the award of Proton to DRB-Hicom, which immediately said they didn't have money but must borrow from Maybank, which in turn has to borrow from somewhere else. What if the whole exercise flops and Maybank ends up with a huge bad debt? By the way, if you have guessed that the Employee Provident Fund and PNB are among the biggest Maybank shareholders - which ultimately translates to the ordinary Malaysian worker and the poor Malay fishermen and farmers - then you are right.

The Ministry of Defence is also going to waste money on some exorbitantly expensive naval vessels, similar to the useless Scorpene submarines that Najib ordered in 2002 and allegedly received a RM570million kickback from. No wonder, current Defense minister Zahid Hamidi has had his eye on the Typhoon jet fighter for a while now. What a juicy piece of steak this must be for him!

MRT Corp, set up under the Ministry of Finance is expected to raise bonds soon for financing the RM50 billion Klang Valley MRT project. More money has to be borrowed and interest paid. Of course when the project starts there will be economic activities, but like all previous mega projects it is just a transient rise and will abruptly disappear once the money-making scheme is completed. Malaysians will then be treated to the same sour ending with the National Debt ballooning dangerously, while UMNO leaders and their cronies smile all the way to the bank, pockets bulging even more than ever.

The future is plain to see. The people will suffer from the poor service and with the maintenance of the KVMRT deteriorating so rapidly, the project will eventually need a bail out. No surprises for Malaysians used to this by now. With all due respect, history has shown that all the Malaysian LRT lines were bailed out because of bad planning and poor construction.

But for the KVMRT - the mother of all potential bailouts - this project is not going anywhere, and the completed structures will end up as white elephants, with the overall system only be partially completed. Due to its myriad problems, the entire system won’t be able to work and function properly. The KVMRT is doomed from the start. Don't forget - you read it first here!

The Iskandar project in Johor has been hailed by UMNO as being a huge success. But sad to say, that is only on paper. UMNO has been on an advertisement propaganda to show the people that all is fine on the southern end. But basically, it is mere photo-shoots, nice photos, charts and statistics but Iskandar, like the KVMRT, will only benefit select contractors and be of limited economic reach because the project will hang halfway due to poor planning.

Not economic projects but money-making schemes

You see, only the 'first mile' is important. This is where the crony contractors and developers get their hands on the juicy government contracts. What doe they care if the entire project fails to integrate with both the local and national economy? After does Najib, the PM and also Finance minister care? No, he is even more busy than they are excavating the economy for his benefit and those of select UMNO allies.

UMNO and Najib have succeeded only in launching money-making schemes. This is why Malaysia is slowly but surely going bankrupt. The people are not getting richer. Only a certain group have become fabulously rich. This is the problem with all UMNO economic activities. Because of their short-term nature, there is no lasting effect and in the end they create more trouble and burden for the people.

The IPPs are milking TNB and Petronas dry and that directly hurts the people who have to pay high fuel and energy tariffs. The completed highways are still collecting the ever increasing tolls and the effect is hiking the cost of everything. Again, this is another example of the UMNO money-making schemes, the worst and most clumsily covered-up example being the RM12.5billion Port Klang Free Zone scandal.

Praised for doing nothing

So, what a joke it was when the World Chinese Economic Forum (WCEF) crowned Najib the Father of Modernisation and Transformation when he has not even completed a single term in office and he has not even won a mandate of his own to lead Malaysia.

Despite all that, MCA president Chua Soi Lek put on a great show of support, tapping contacts in the WCEF group to honor Najib. But the joke was on them because the WCEF actually gave Najib an award for doing nothing!

What an achievement indeed! Were they being sarcastic by awarding Najib such a “grand” accolade that even the mainstream media did not dare to play up for fear it might spark nationwide sarcasm and boomerang on the BN.

But if ridicule, empty promises, giving more burden to the people, leading Malaysia to the brink of bankruptcy, whitewashing financial debacles like the RM250mil Shahrizat-NFC scandal and indecisiveness are the basis for the award, then Najib truly deserves it. What say you?

by  Nawawi Mohamad
Malaysia Chronicle