Most analysts will tell you that BN will emphatically win the coming May
9 election. I am not most analysts. While I agree with the dominant argument
that BN goes into GE14 with significant structural advantages and the ruling
coalition is a strong favourite to win, the campaign is fluid and riddled with
uncertainties.
Compared to 2013, this election has more competitive seats and more
unknowns. No one can predict the outcome with certainty. Below I outline five
issue areas that make GE14 arguably one of Malaysia’s most competitive,
suggesting that much of what is happening in the election to date is evolving
in the last few weeks of the campaign, and as such GE14’s outcome and that of
Malaysia’s political future is very much in the balance.
1.
Tighter contests
In 2013, nearly 50% of the seats (111
of 222) were competitive, with 32% of the seats won by less than 10%. Most of
these close seats were fierce battles, some of which came down to blackouts,
postal votes and multi-cornered splitting of the opposition vote. Polling
agents were often unsung heroes. Recall that in four parliamentary seats in
Sabah, opposition differences resulted in BN winning them - Keningau, Kota Marudu, Pensiangan and Tenom.
In 2018, around 65% of the seats (144) are estimated to be competitive,
meaning that these seats can be won by less than a 10% margin. This increase is
the product of three issues: 1) three-cornered fights, 2) the entrance of
Bersatu, and 3) greater convergence of local opposition in Sabah.
Three-cornered fights (a topic that will be developed in more detail in a later
piece), disproportionately advantage the BN, but in the process, they make the
margins of victory lower.
PAS is reportedly slating candidates
in 126 seats, which will make multi-cornered contests a nationwide
phenomenon. Slimmer margins make for more competitiveness and surprises. At the
same time, traditional seats like Pagoh and Langkawi –
while also favour BN despite the fielding of Bersatu heavyweights– now join the
competitive seat list. We also see more competitive seats in Kedah and Johor.
Finally, while Sabah politics continues to be multi-party, the
localisation of the opposition increases the political salience of ethnic and
personal loyalties and, combined with the wave toward Borneo empowerment, makes
for closer contests.
2.
Leadership legacies
In 2013, the election was about caretaker prime minister Najib Razak.
This time around it is the same, except rather than serving as a strength for
BN, he is a liability with record levels of antipathy against him and his wife,
Rosmah Mansor. If Najib really wanted his coalition to win positively, he would
have stepped down. As such, the election appears to be about his survival, not
the interests of his party or the country.
Opposition leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad is also a divisive figure,
similarly evoking strong emotions from critics. The sense of relief when
Mahathir stepped down from office in 2003 was palpable. While corruption levels
were not as high as Najib’s tenure, Mahathir did similarly undermine the
democratic fabric of Malaysia.
His return at 92, evoking a sense of statesmanship for the country,
appears less about personal interest than that of Najib. It is deeply ironic
that one of the leaders who did the most damage to political institutions is
now the defender of democracy in Malaysia.
The stark Najib-Mahathir face-off focuses heavily on different
perceptions of the legacies of their past tenures, forcing voters to opt for
the least-opposed candidate. This inevitably has led to resistance among some
voters to either choice. The challenge for both leaders is to convince voters
that they offer something meaningful for the country’s future. This is playing
out in the campaign.
3.
Undecided voters, reduced turnout
Less than one month away from GE14, credible polls suggest that over a
third of registered voters are estimated to be still undecided. In 2013, only
15% went into the election campaign without a clear choice. The 2018 campaign
will matter, as it will determine which party will tip the balance in voting.
A crucial part of the decision will be whether to vote at all. Voter
turnout reached a record high of 85% in 2013. All indications are that turnout
will drop this time around, as shown in the Sarawak 2016 polls which saw a
turnout of 66%. The decision to put the election on a Wednesday aims to reduce
turnout further, and this is enhanced by indecision among the electorate
itself.
Whichever party brings voters to the polls will have the advantage. The
BN’s machinery is stronger, fuelled by its resource advantage. It traditionally
has the stronger record on bringing its base out to vote. Given the antipathy
towards Najib among many in the BN base itself, the higher turnout for the BN
is not guaranteed.
At the same time, the opposition has greater obstacles getting its
voters out compared to 2013, given the loss of PAS which served as the
machinery backbone for Pakatan Rakyat. All of Pakatan Harapan parties by
contrast have comparatively weak machinery. With less money in the 2018
campaign compared to 2013 to date for the opposition, this potentially weakens
turnout for the opposition further – adding to the competitiveness.
4.
Prominent identity politics
The sensitive issues of race and religion lurk closely below the surface
in this campaign. In the past five years, the Najib government has pitted
Chinese against Malays openly with its zero-sum characterisation of the 2013
vote as a “Chinese tsunami”.
The labelling of the opposition of 2018 as a “Malay tsunami” follows the
same ethnic framing, putting the question of Malay unity and the role of
non-Malays centre stage in the current political contest. While interpersonal
race relations remain largely cordial, the politicisation of race and power
creates undercurrents that cannot be fully controlled or predicted.
To further complicate this dynamic, PAS is articulating its own “pure”
Islamic agenda, having nothing meaningful to offer in other areas of governance.
While Umno tacitly supports this agenda – contributing to the narrative
of ratcheting up religious differences as a reason to vote in GE14 – religion
has moved from a question of religious freedoms to religious dominance and
displacement.
Rather than building bridges across the faiths, the campaigns by PAS and
to some extent Umno, are more about exclusion and the primacy of one
community’s rights over others. This also taps into highly emotive and
unpredictable dimensions.
5.
Post-election questions
Najib is also no Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, whose gentlemanly sense of
fairness accepted the results of the 2008 campaign.
With charges of kleptocracy shadowing Najib, legitimate questions are
being asked whether he would accept the results. The same can be said for the
opposition as well, which has witnessed the Najib government introduce even
more structural unfairness in the electoral process in areas such as the
delineation. This excessive unfairness has sadly delegitimised the elections
among many and fuelled anger, creating greater risks for acceptance of
electoral outcomes.
Nevertheless, both BN and the opposition are living in their own
political echo chambers, both sides are confident of winning. They have drunk
their own rose syrup, not fully appreciating that many Malaysians stand on the
sidelines, watching and deciding which electoral party to attend. The mood is
not yet one dominated by celebration and hope, rather one permeating with
uncertainty and indecision.
The campaign will matter more than is realised, and as such, every vote
will matter.
