Malaysia’s RM456 billion of federal government debt does not take into consideration additional RM96.9 billion of “contingent liabilities”.

Based on the Government’s Economic Report 2011/2 published last year, our Federal Government debt will hit RM455.7 billion as at the end of 2011. This was a 11.9% increase from RM407.1 billion incurred in 2010. Our debt levels have been increasing rapidly in recent years compared to RM242 billion in 2006 and RM146 billion in 2002.

As it stands, our Federal Government debt has hit 53.8% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 53.1% in 2010 and 44.6% in 2006.

However, what is of greater concern is the Government “off-balance sheet” financing which isn’t reported as Federal Government Debt. In recent years, the Government has increasingly issued debt papers via its statutory bodies and corporatised entities. These loans are obtain with guarantees provided by the Government, but are not reflected as Federal Government borrowings.

In 2010, the “off-balance sheet” financing activities has hit a record high of RM96.9 billion in 2010, a 14.9% increase from RM84.3 billion in 2009. These are loans which have been taken with a Government guarantee i.e., the Government is obligated to pay should the borrowers fail to settle the debts. As an example, if the Federal Territories Foundation is unable to repay the proposed RM300 million loan from EPF to provide financing for the low-cost housing purchasers, then the Government will have to step in to make the RM300 million payment to EPF.

Hence for all intents and purposes, even though these loans are not taken by the Government, they are essentially government debt or otherwise known as contingent liabilities. Adding RM96.9 billion to the current debt of RM455.7 billion, the effective debt which Malaysian tax-payers are liable for is RM552.6 billion. This expanded figure would then constitute 65.2% of our GDP, well above the 55% federal government loan limit as defined in the Loan (Local) Act 1959 and Government Funding Act 1983.

The list of statutory bodies and corporate entities which have been given Government guarantees are as per Table 1 at the bottom. Based on the list, there are some serious concerns over the performance or non-performance of these loans which will require bail outs by the Federal Government.

For example, the PTPTN and Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd owes RM17.0 billion (17.5%) and RM9.1 billion (9.4%) respectively and they have both been heavily criticized by the Auditor-General for their weak financial management and their inability to repay their loans.

The list also includes Syarikat Penerbangan Malaysia Bhd (RM7.0 billion) which was set up to bail out Malaysian Airlines System (MAS); 1MDB (RM5.0 billion) which in turn lent nearly all its money to a questionable foreign company, PetroSaudi International Limited and Silterra Bhd (RM1.0 billion) which has made more than RM2 billion in losses to date.

What is interesting is also the fact that loans of Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary-owned Port of Tanjong Pelepas (PTP) also received financial guarantees from the Government. PTP’s “guaranteed” loans have in fact increased from RM715 million in 2009 to RM1.275 billion in 2010.

Expert testimonies in 2009 in the United Kingdom Parliament has heavily criticized Government guarantees to statutory bodies, government-linked companies or “private-finance initiatives” as an attempt to hide real debt levels in order to achieve better credit ratings. Professor Dieter Helm of Oxford University said that such initiatives had succeeded as "an exercise to get investment off the public balance sheet so that the debt numbers look better than they otherwise would have done." The Greek financial crisis has similarly unraveled as a result of hidden contingent liabilities not reflected as official government debt or reported in its balance sheet.

For a start the BN government must reflect all its guarantees and contingent liabilities in the annual Economic Report and Budget to be debated in Parliament and it must impose measures to slow down the rate of growth of Malaysia’s debt levels. Malaysia should not wait for a major financial crisis of Greek proportions before attempting to reform our public sector finance. At the pace which our debts are increasing, we are accelerating and plunging headlong into a financial disaster.

Tony Pua is the DAP MP for PJ Utara

Bankrupt in no time: Desperate BN set to raise borrowing limit again?

The Barisan Nasional has modified the Statutory Borrowing Ceiling at its whims and fancies over the past decade rendering meaningless the legal debt ceiling for Federal Government.

The Loan (Local) Act 1959 and Government Funding Act 1983 puts in place a 55% federal government debt limit relative to Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as determined by the Ministry of Finance (MoF). Based on the Government’s Economic Report 2011/2, our federal government debt will hit RM455.7 billion as at the end of 2011 which works out to 53.8% of our GDP, or a whisker away from the statutory borrowing ceiling.

However, what is worrying is the fact that the “statutory borrowing ceiling” has actually been raised multiple times by the Barisan Nasional (BN) Government over the past decade to “legalise” the federal government debt level which has been increasing at a much faster pace than our GDP.

The 55% statutory borrowing ceiling only came into effect in July 2009 by order of current Second Finance Minister Dato’ Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah. Prior to the revised limit, the limit was set at 45% in June 2008, barely 13 months before by the then Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Md Yakcop.

It was 5 years before that when the limit was raised to 40% in April 2003 by the then Second Finance Minister Dato’ Sri Jamaluddin Jarjis.

15% of GDP jump in just 6 years

Hence our statutory borrowing ceiling has been raised by 15% of our GDP in just 6 years. The question is if the ceiling is repeatedly raised with such nonchalance, why did the Government bother setting a limit at all? Given that our debt level is expected to increase beyond 55% over the next 2 years, are we expecting the Federal Government to once again raise the ceiling in Parliament to circumvent the breach?

In fact, we are extremely concerned that the Federal Government, which is mindful of their debt level relative to the GDP, is using all sorts of creative measures to by-pass the limit set by law.

It should be noted that the MoF will be raising approximately RM20 billion to fund the first phase of the Klang Valley MRT mega-project this year. However, based on the fact that the MRT was never debated in the 2012 Budget tabled in Parliament for approval last year, it is clear that the funding will be raised by a wholly-owned “special purpose vehicle” (SPV) known as Dana Infra, and guaranteed by the Government.

This way, the BN Federal Government kills two birds with one stone. Firstly, the debt raised will not be part of the Federal Government debt (because Dana Infra is “not” Federal Government) and hence will not be perceived to jeopardise our credit standings. This is despite the fact that all parties are expecting MRT to be a financially loss-making project and that the Federal Government will have to fund Dana Infra’s debt repayments at some point in the future.

Secondly, by placing the debt and expenditure of the MRT project in a SPV, such expenditure then escapes the purview of direct parliamentary oversight because it is never debated in Parliament as an official Budget item. As mentioned earlier, there is not a single line item in the 2012 Budget approved at the last parliamentary sitting for the purposes of constructing an MRT despite the fact that this will be Malaysia’s largest ever infrastructure project by far.

Creatiive manipulation will bankrupt Malaysia

Such creative manipulation of our federal government debt and expenditure is not limited to just the MRT project but many other multi-billion ringgit projects such as the construction of 74 police headquarters with government-guaranteed RM10 billion debt by MoF-owned Pembinaan BLT Sdn Bhd, or the proposed RM20 billion sukuk plan by Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB) to restructure the country’s water assets.

Governments all over the world, especially in developed countries like the United Kingdom and Germany, are now changing their laws to require such debts and contingent liabilities to be incorporated into the Government’s financial statement to ensure greater transparency and financial accountability. This is to avert a financial crisis which has already enveloped the Euro-zone over the past 2 years.

However, it appears that the Malaysian government is still sitting back and resting easy, while making full use of the “loop-hole” in our government financial reporting standards to continue to recklessly in-debt future Malaysians with none of the checks put in place.

Tony Pua is the DAP MP for PJ Utara

Malaysia Election Around the Corner?

With Sodomy II out of the way, look forward to March polls -- maybe or maybe not

With the Sodomy II trial of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim now out of the way, it is probably time to start thinking seriously about Malaysia's 13th general election, which most observers -- but not all -- believe will be called in March, during school holidays when the classrooms are empty.

Despite euphoria on the part of the three-party opposition coalition, the end of the trial doesn't mean that Anwar's troubles are over. One political observer in Kuala Lumpur told Asia Sentinel that the United Malays National Organization, the lead party in the ruling national coalition, will probably do its best to discredit him in other ways.

Although he was declared not guilty, the image of the opposition leader as a sexual deviant has probably been planted in a lot of Malaysian minds. Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan, Anwar's accuser, appears to have no intention of going away. He has asked the attorney general to appeal the acquittal and is tweeting and texting his outrage and innocence to anyone who will read them. UMNO could well put him on the trail to demand denied justice at every campaign stop.

However, Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak carry plenty of baggage of their own. A long series of scandals within the party bear the hallmarks of being pushed by various Umno factions to cripple each other. That isn’t to say the snap poll won’t come off. But there are headwinds. The party held its annual general assembly in December and was expected to come out fighting. There was plenty of harsh rhetoric that made it sound as if Umno is besieged on all sides by threatening foes from both inside and outside the country – particularly from Christians, and particularly Chinese ones.

Najib himself concluded the conclave by pounding the war drums in stark terms, outlining a dark future if the opposition were to win, saying that: “This is the fate that will befall us if Umno loses power. Who will uphold the symbol of Islam? Who is capable of protecting the rights and agenda of the Malays? Who will continue to honour our Malay rulers?”

Massive scandal derails party conclave
Almost simultaneously with the annual general assembly, however, Umno found itself in a massive scandal involving the family of Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, the head of Wanita Umno, the women’s wing of the party and minister for Women, Welfare and Community Development. It has been impossible to wish the scandal away as a ploy by the opposition because it was exposed in September by Malaysia’s Auditor General.

As some observers have pointed out, it is also damaging because it involves agriculture, and particularly cattle – something Umno’s rural constituency can understand in all of its ominous implications. The matter involves the National Feedlot Corporation, which was given RM250 million (US80 million) in a government soft loan and was established to slaughter as many as 60,000 cattle a year by halal, or religiously accepted, methods. However, NFC has never slaughtered 10 percent of the projected total and has since scaled back its target to 8,000 head but hasn’t been able to meet that target either. The agreement to establish the company, made when Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was prime minister, was okayed by Muhyiddin Yassin, the agriculture minister at the time and now the deputy prime minister.

None of Shahrizat's family had any experience in cattle production or beef supply prior to the establishment of the company. It appears that much of the money—as much as RM131 million -- was poured into things that had nothing to do with feeding cattle but instead into cars, condos and travel, among other things.

The matter has been seized upon with a good deal of glee by the opposition. One Malay businessman source said “there may be other revelations as to how the money for cattle was used which may implicate the number 2 guy.” That is Muhyiddin Yassin, the deputy prime minister. “This thing has been a lifeline for the opposition who are sitting on a thumb drive full of info which they are revealing in bits and pieces,” he said.

Intermixed with this are reports that both Muhyiddin’s and Najib’s private secretaries have been accepting funds of at least RM10,000 per month from private parties for reasons that are unclear. The allegations against each – complete with pictures of checks -- are suspected of having been leaked by the Muhyiddin and Najib factions against each other. There reportedly is yet another massive scandal waiting in the wings, involving hundreds of millions of dollars in connection with the Iskandar project in Johor across the strait from Singapore. Documents are believed to have been made available to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission that are said to implicate former lieutenants of former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Some sources have said the Shahrizat matter and shortcomings by other ministers argues for a cabinet reshuffle prior to any election. Certainly, Shahrizat is expected to be dropped as a candidate in the next election, whenever it is to be held, and that probably her husband will be charged at some point.

Continuing allegations of corruption have cost the country four places in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, dropping it to a still relatively respectable 60th. But it is the third straight year the country has slipped in the perceptions index – all three occurring on Najib’s watch. Although the mainstream media, all of which are owned by the component parties of the Barisan have tended to downplay the corruption reports, it is estimated that 41 percent of Malaysians now have access to the Internet – and a huge flock of opposition bloggers and websites, some of which, such as Malaysian Insider and Malaysiakini, are very professionally produced, and which pull no punches on reporting corruption and government mismanagement.

Part of the problem for Umno, a party source says, is getting divisional warlords to make way for winnable candidates in races that have become competitive now that the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition has become a genuine movement rather than a ragtag group of parties cobbled together by Anwar. These are old hands that refuse to give away to younger, more attractive and educated candidates.

It is a longstanding problem borne out by the fact that Rais Yatim, the information minister and an Umno Supreme Council member, said after the December conclave that those not selected must refrain from sabotaging the party. It is significant enough that the Mahathir wing of the party is contemplating demanding that party members sign a loyalty oath. A Penang district member, Musa Sheikh Fadzir, proposed the establishment of a General Election Disciplinary Committee to take action against those who go against the party in the upcoming polls.

Added to this are concerns that the party isn’t appealing strongly enough to young, urban Malays, turned off by infighting and corruption, who have been drifting towards Parti Islam se-Malaysia, or PAS, which has rebranded itself as a secular party, and to a lesser extent to Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat.

According to the Neilsen rating agency, Malaysia’s highest Internet usage is recorded among the young -- of people aged 20-24: 57 percent use the Internet regularly, spending an average of 22.3 hours online per week. Despite considerable publicity in recent weeks over a demand that the party return to its Islamic roots by former executive committee member Hasan Ali and his confederate, Nasharudin Mat Isa, a former PAS deputy president who was supplanted by the new moderate team, other sources say the party remains perhaps the most disciplined in the three-party opposition.

The biggest of the three opposition parties, PAS is continuing to work to appeal to urban voters. It is a dramatic illustration of the change in Malaysian society. According to the CIA World Factbook, 72 percent of the country’s 28.7 million people are now living in cities. Although Malays make up the preponderance of the other 28 percent, the rural roots of both Umno and PAS are vanishing – at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. Agriculture now comprises only 13 percent of the workforce, with industry, 36 percent, and services, 51 percent, making up the rest.

As evidence of the racial divisions in the country, a poll by the Merdeka Centre taken last year said 61 percent of ethnic Malays believe the country is going in the right direction as opposed to only 31 percent of Chinese. Ethnic Indian approval of the way the country is going, at a high of 66 percent, has fallen dramatically as well, to 39 percent despite Najib’s assiduous efforts to woo Indians back to the fold.

Najib, Rais Yatim and others have pointed to the decision to acquit Anwar as evidence of the Malaysian judiciary's independence, which is probably stretching the truth considerably. However, Umno and its leaders have been touting reforms of the hated colonial-era Internal Security Act, which allows for the indeterminate jailing of anyone the attorney general considers to be subversive, amendments to the Printing Presses and Publications Act and election law cleanup as well as other liberalizations as a step towards a new Malaysia.

Opponents regard these changes as cosmetic. The ISA is likely to be replaced by something akin to the Patriot Act, which was jammed through a panicked US Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC.

The government appears to have shot itself in the foot with the passage by the Dewan Rakyat, or parliament, of a Peaceful Assembly Act that opposition lawmakers, human rights activists and the country’s lawyers say was about as bad as the law it replaces as it bans street demonstrations and requires assemblies, meetings and processions to be held only on designated compounds.

Whatever strength Najib has within Umno and whatever hold Umno has on the ethnic Malay electorate, the Barisan Nasional appears almost certain to have to simply write off the Chinese vote, and perhaps an unknown portion of the urban Malay and Indian vote as well. According to one analysis, overall 50 percent of parliamentary seats are Malay majority, 25 percent are Chinese majority and mixed seats i.e. seats in which no ethnic group has a majority, 25 percent are from the east Malaysia states of Sabah and Sarawak. To win Putrajaya, either the Barisan or Pakatan Rakyat must secure at least half of Malay majority seats -- 25 percent of the total parliamentary seats. For the Barisan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 5 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 20 percent from Sabah and Sarawak. For Pakatan, the winning formula is: 25 percent Malay majority seats, 20 percent Chinese or mixed seats and 5 percent from Sabah and Sarawak.

The other Barisan component parties are in considerably worse shape than Umno. The nearly moribund Malaysian Chinese Association is enmeshed in a scandal over the development of the Port Klang multimodal port facility, which has the potential to cost the country RM13 billion if all loan commitments are to be met. There is also hand-to-hand combat among leadership factions. In addition Chua Soi Lek, the head of the party, has been repeatedly taken to task by Malay supremacists such as Ibrahim Ali and his NGO Perkasa, which has the tacit backing of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, further disenchanting ethnic Chinese, who make up 23.7 percent of the population. They appear to have abandoned the party wholesale for the Democratic Action Party, which has been termed a Chinese chauvinist party.

Although East Malaysia appears solidly in the Barisan camp, if the state election held in Sarawak held on April 16 is any harbinger, the results indicate a clear abandonment of the Barisan by Chinese voters. The Chinese-based opposition Democratic Action Party won 12 of the 15 seats it contested, doubling its share of seats in Sarawak since the 2006 state elections. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, won three seats, including a rural one.

Thus the outcome appears to depend on how much PAS, having abandoned its Islamic goals, can make inroads among the Malay population, and particularly the urban Malay population. That 72 percent urban preponderance starts to look interesting indeed.

Many observers believe the most likely scenario is a Barisan win, but the historic two-thirds majority in parliament, which allowed the Barisan to dictate the country’s political and governmental agenda, is likely gone for good.

That doesn’t mean the opposition is faring much better. Pakatan Rakyat coalition continues to be beset with defections and arguments between the three component parties.

One of the things militating for an early election is increasingly dour economic forecasts. Second-half gross domestic product growth edged lower to 4.0 percent year-on-year as domestic demand weakened. By sector, according to the Malaysia Economic Institute of Research, services (6.3 percent growth) and manufacturing (2.1 percent) were the main growth engines. MEIR expects growth momentum to moderate as exports weaken on lacklustre performance by its main export partners, principally the United States. For 2012, MIER has revised its GDP growth forecast downward to 5.0 percent. Other research analysts, more pessimistic, put growth at 4.4 percent.

Although inflation seems relatively tame at a forecast 3 percent, Malaysia’s tripartite growth model, two segments of which are manufacturing and commodities and both directed for export, will be hit by what appears to be an almost certain 2012 economic downturn in Europe and sub-par growth in the United States barring some miracle. That leaves just fiscal pump-priming and the public sector economy to maintain growth. Federal government net borrowing is already forecast at RM45.1 billion for the full year of 2011 and RM43.6 billion in 2012. Najib has produced an election budget with some goodies for everybody but particularly the country’s ethnic Malays, including 1.3 million civil servants, one of the highest civil servants-to-population ratios in the world – the preponderance of them ethnic Malays. Civil servants will be offered tuition assistance for part-time studies

Other goodies include abolishment of payments for primary and secondary education, a “commercialisation innovation fund” to help out SMEs, a RM2 billion “shariah-compliant” financing fund for SMEs to be managed by selected Islamic banks – another bone thrown to Malay businessmen – as well as a review of capital gains taxes on property to stabilise the property market.

Najib and his troops have been hitting the campaign trail assiduously. But whether that means an election is imminent remains to be seen. Mahathir, the party’s stormy petrel, counsels waiting until all of the ducks are lined up. But he also counsels that the Barisan keep up the pressure to make the opposition believe the national polls could happen sooner – forcing them to spend money, time and energy to try to keep up with the government parties.

 Asia Sentinel.com

'Ah Jib Gor' merayu tetapi tiada yang mendengar '

Di mana sahaja Najib pergi, beliau akan menegaskan sesuatu yang sama “sangat penting” untuk Umno dan BN diundi semula dalam pilihanraya akan datang supaya parti itu boleh menunaikan janji transformasi mereka.

“Saya sentiasa mengatakan bahawa bukan tidak penting untuk diundi semula. Ia sangat penting untuk diundi semula. Untuk kami menunaikan janji transformasi, kami perlu diundi semula,” ujarnya dalam pelancaran pada “Politics of economics and Social Transformation in the Era of Global Crisis.

Tiada kuasa sebenar dari mula

Adakah beliau mengulang-ulang kata atau sebenarnya merayu kepada rakyat supaya memberi peluang sekali lagi kepada pakatan BN? Apa pun jua, rakyat seperti tidak peduli. Seolah-olah tidak mengendahkan beliau.

Di usia 58, Najib telah menjadi seperti si budak yang melaungkan pertolongan daripada serigala. Beliau sudah menipu dan bercakap kosong terlalu banyak. Mereka yang di kedai kopi sudah memanggil beliau PM yang cakap sampah (ada juga menggunakan perkataan yang lebih teruk).

Mengapa harus rakyat mendengar apa yang beliau cakapkan? Orang ini bukanlah yang mereka pilih sebagai PM tetapi dilantik parti UMNO selepas mereka menyingkirkan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi dalam satu pergolakkan kuasa.

Parti komponen BN sudah berputus asa terhadapnya

Parti komponen BN pun juga tidak lagi mendengar cakap beliau, terutamanya yang dari Sabah dan Sarawak. Mereka mempunyai masalah dalam parti mereka sendiri. Parti komponen dalam BN yang lain juga sedang mengalami pertelingkahan dalaman dengan ahli mereka yang tidak berpuas hati dan kecewa. Seperti tiada harapan untuk mereka. Nama BN, suatu ketika dahulu adalah wira sekarang sudah busuk dan merupakan yang paling payah untuk dibawa dalam pilihanraya akan datang. Kekalahan hampir pasti namun begitu, Najib hanya mampu bercakap perkara tidak masuk akal.

Di Semenanjung, Gerakan sudah hampir pupus. PPP sama seperti KITA –tidak relevan! MIC tiada perkembangan dan MCA telah jatuh standad di mata masyarakat Cina. Di Sarawak, Ketua Menteri Taib Mahmud masih lagi berkuasa sama ada membenarkan PBS kekal dalam BN atau tidak. Tiada apa-apa yang dapat dilakukan oleh Najib mengenai ini walaupun beliau sering bercakap dengan gahnya.

Di Sabah, LDP masih lagi menghadapi krisis kepimpinan; PBRS dan UPKO tidak mempunyai pengaruh terhadap keputusan PRU 13 kerana sudah ada UMNO di Sabah. UMNO Sabah juga sedang mengahadapi pergolakan dan tikam menikam dari belakang walaupun Najib sedang berhujah mengenai kepentingan kesederhanaan.

Bukan saja Najib sedang hidup dalam alam fantasi, beliau masih lagi mahu parti komponen BN yang lain mengorbankan kerusi boleh menang mereka untuk kepentingan UMNO! Tetapi dengan begitu besar yang telah diperjudikan, mengapa harus mereka berbuat demikian? Banyak yang sudahpun menunding jari kepada UMNO sebab sikap pembuli dan mementingkan diri mereka.

Sebagai contoh, Chua Soi Lek, presiden MCA telah pun merayu ahli parti itu untuk tidak melompat parti kepada pembangkang dan menjanjikan jawatan tinggi dan wang berjuta-juta. Tetapi tidak, kerana Najib sekarang berminat untuk mengumpul segala yang beliau rasakan boleh menang. Jadi, bagaimana untuk menghentikan penghijrahan?

Terpaksa guna semula muka lama dalam politik UMNO

Najib sebenarnya sedang mengaut pulangan daripada politik kotor BN ke atas rakyat. Ini adalah hasil daripada budaya yang telah lama dipupok dalam UMNO dan BN untuk sekian lamanya- budaya rasuah, politik wang, tikam belakang, perebutan jawatan tinggi dan wang. Wang sememangnya segalanya untuk UMNO-BN. Wang bukanlah untuk rakyat dan negara tetapi untuk keluarga mereka dan mereka sendiri. Demokrasi pula adalah perkataan yang tidak wujud dalam kamus hidup mereka.

Jadi inilah sebabnya mengapa tidak ada yang begitu mengendahkan Najib. Si budak yang melaung serigala atau Maharaja yang tidak berpakaian- Najib telah menggunakan taktik licik untuk membersihkan imej dirinya sendiri. Beliau terpaksa menyalahkan orang lain dan mengguna semula ahli politik bereputasi buruk. Pada dasarnya, tiada seorang pun yang mahu mengikut telunjuk beliau lagi.

Contohnya, Najib telah mengangkat Isa Samad sebagai pengerusi FELDA supaya bekas muridnya dan protégé dari Sekolah Dato Abdul Razak

di Seremban yang kini sudah menjadi menteri seperti Shaziman Abu Mansor (Menteri Kewangan II), Ismail Sabri Yaakob (Menteri Perdaganagn Dalam Negeri) danAbdul LAtiff Ahmad (Timbalan Menteri Pertahanan) akan kekal dalam UMNO.

Begitu juga dengan Trio Datuk T yang mendedahkan sex video yang memfitnah Anwar Ibrahim. Ini juga usaha mengguna semula orang lapuk dalam UMNO – Rahim Thamby Chik, bekas Ketua Menteri Melaka. Ini semua menemui kegagalan dan menjahanamkan terus reputasinya yang sudah sedia teruk itu.

Malaysia di zaman paling gelap dan lemah

Tetapi apa yang Najib telah pelajari? Nampaknya tiada apa-apa kerana sekarang beliau sedang mengharapkan Jamaluddin Jarjis, bekas menteri yang menjadi diplomat ke AS. JJ bukan sahaja terkenal dengan rasuah tetapi juga seorang playboy seperti Najib.

Sungguhpun begitu, Najib hanya mahu mereka ini bekerja untuk mengembalikan kuasa beliau. Tidak hairanlah jika tidak lama lagi Najib juga akan memanggil semula Muhammad Muhammad Taib, bekas MB Selangor yang tidak kurang keji masa silamnya.

Untuk semua ini Najib mahu parti komponen BN mengorbankan semua kerusi boleh menang kepadanya pada PRU 13. Mungkin beliau boleh saja buli MCA, MIC,

Gerakan dan semua yang kecil-kecil dalam BN. Namun begitu, pertelingkahan sudah wujud dalam UMNO dengan mereka-mereka yang tidak berpuas hati memikirkan mengapa mereka tidak singkir saja Najib?

Sebenarnya, mereka tidak salah. Yang sepatutnya beliau memulihkan situasi selepas Abdullah Badawi disingkirnya tetapi beliau telah menolak Malaysia untuk jatuh ke zaman paling gelap dan lemah.

Pemimpin UMNO kini begitu juga dengan calon yang dijangka boleh menang sudah tidak lagi mendengar kata Najib kerana tiada sesiapa pun yang dapat menjamin Najib akan kekal berkuasa selepas PRU 13.

Paling memalukan -Ah Jib Gor!

Najib juga berusaha untuk mendekati beliau dengan mengadakan Facebook “fan empire”.Beliau telah mendirikan beberapa buah laman dan anda boleh sahaja keliru dengan ketulenannya. Hasilnya, usaha menaikkan nama sediri beliau itu gagal. Yang melucukan adalah laman “Ah Jib Gor” atau “Abang Najib”.

Beliau sememangnya dicurigai orang Cina. Najib sudah pun dimalukan oleh beliau kaum Cina dan ada yang menulis di laman itu “DIAM LAH”.

Jadi tiada yang mendengar cakap beliau lagi. Bagaimana dengan orang kampung? Adakah mereka mendengar cakap Najib? Ada juga ya dan kebanyakkannya tidak.

Mereka mempunyai anak dan anak mereka menasihatkan agar jangan mendengar atau percaya pada UMNO terutamanya Najib. “ Ada yang tidak kena pada UMNO mungkin kerana Najib atau Mahathir. Tetapi UMNO sudah tidak boleh dipercayai”, inilah yang dikatakan kepada mak dan ayah mereka apabila ditanya mengapa banyak sangat kekacauan kini?

Kepada negara dan dunia luar, Najib adalah pembohong bersiri. Beliau bukanlah seorang lelaki yang mengawal masa depannya sendiri dan tidak juga dapat mengawal isterinya Rosmah dari berbelanja besar. Apa lagi masa depan negara dan kemakmurannya?

by  Nawawi Mohamad & Wong Choon Mei

Malaysia Chronicle

Take a look in the mirror: Has Umno ever kept its promises?

For the past six decades UMNO and Barisan Nasional (BN) have failed to uplift the standard of living among all the marginalised ethnic groups in the country and this includes the Indians, Malays, Chinese and the Indigenous. The gulf of disparity between the rich and the poor is ceaselessly widening. This poverty gap has made many poor Malaysians become tangential to the national economic pie.

About 70 percent of ethnic Indians in the country are in the poor or hardcore-poor cohort but receives the least attention from the UMNO-led government, as the poor Indians do not have much political clout in a country of about 28.5  million people.  UMNO-friendly political parties representing the minority Indians in BN have not achieved much in trying to help this marginalised group of Indians.

They may have enriched a few cronies among them for the past six decades but the downtrodden among the Indians are left to live on crumbs. The norm has always been that Barisan Nasional (BN) with UMNO as its backbone party would make ostentatious promises before elections to help the marginalised Indians. All these syrupy  promises would, more often than not, conk out just after the elections.

Bullying tactics
Those political parties in BN and other Indian-based political parties friendly to BN espoused to help the poor Indians would be quietened down by UMNO with all the ‘bullying’ tactics. Nevertheless, UMNO leaders have never been short of grandiose rhetorical phrases to ‘mesmerise’ the timorous and poor ethnic Indians:
“In view of the low level of corporate equity ownership among Indians, attention will be given to increase their participation during the OPP3 period.”

“Efforts will thus be undertaken to increase Indian equity ownership to 3 per cent by 2010.”

“ At the same time, a study to review the status of the Indian participation in the economy will be undertaken to formulate ‘appropriate strategies and programmes’ to help the Indians.”

“A ‘high-powered’ task committee will be formed, headed by MIC President, to find out the plights of the Indian community.”

“More allocations will be given to uplift the standard of living of Indians in the country.”

“RM200 million will be allocated to assist poor students to continue with their education.”

“Najib came out with a statement asking Tamil educationist to come out with a blueprint on how to take Tamil schools forward.”

“Najib vows to address Indian ‘legacy issues’.”

These are only a few of the many superfluous and flamboyant rhetorical phrases used to lull the poor ethnic Indians. All these gimmicks, however, have remained rhetorical and hollow in substance. Nothing much has got off the ground since the country’s independence to sincerely help the poor Indians and they have not benefitted much from any of these bare promises. In fact, not even 2 percent of the poor ethnic Indians have benefited from all these ‘grand  plans’ for them. These are mere political publicity stunt to dupe the poor Indians. It has only given the poor Indians in the country a false hope in life.

Favours a single ethnic group
Malaysia’s affirmative social and economic policies favour a single ethnic group more than the poor among other races. The poor Indians, Chinese and the Indigenous are far left behind since the implementation of the NEP (New Economic Policy) in 1971 even when a prong of the economic policy clearly indicates that the eradication of poverty is irrespective of race. Apparently, poor ethnic Indians are among the most neglected since the implementation of the NEP.

The Indian community is still trapped in the trough of poverty when the NEP was not extended to help those in the estates and those displaced after the estates were taken over for development. While the NEP helped the Malays and the Indigenous out of poverty and managed to create a group of middle class among them, it obviously ignored the needs of the displaced poor ethnic Indians. In reality, this composite of Indians are as poor as the Malays and the Indigenous, if not more. The failure of the NEP to support the Indians below the poverty line has attributed to the community being marginalised until today. MIC and other Indian leaders politically aligned to UMNO have done little to resolve the problem of poverty among ethnic Indians despite helming the nation under the former Alliance and later the BN coalition for almost six decades.

About 20 percent of ethnic Indian families are earning a meagre RM 516 and below per month. Another 20 percent earn less than RM1000 and below per month.  Ninety percent of this ethnic group do not own any land or shelter of their own. Many in the urban areas live in squalid slums and they form 60 percent of urban squatters. They are among those having the lowest per capita income – earning only about 8 percent of the national average.

Discriminated against
When plantation lands  were developed into other viable projects after the nation’s independence this had resulted in the plantation workers being displaced and forced to become squatters in urban areas. With no proper education and financial means, they left for the urban areas in search of a new life. They lived in squatter colonies that were gradually demolished to make way for development with no or little alternative housing for them. Depriving of everything from income and permanent shelter they have become urban ‘nomads’  who are continuously being forced to live under squalid conditions and constantly being evicted or harassed by the authorities.

Thirty percent of them are squatters or live on TOL (Temporary Occupation Licence Land). Poverty has made their life acutely miserable. Suicides became too common among desperate parents and the meagre bread winners among them. Poverty has forced many of these poor Indians to commit suicide and 40 percent of all suicide cases in the country involve poor Indians. The majority of orphanages and old folks homes are also filled up with members of this minority ethnic Indian community.

Education opportunities for this community has been decreasing since. Only about 1 percent of intakes by government education institutes in the country and opportunities overseas funded by the government are allocated for ethnic Indians. There was a 10 percent quota for ethnic Indians before 1970 and this was reduced to about 5 percent in the 80s and further reduced to less than 3 percent in the past decade. The so-called ‘meritocracy’ system introduced in 2004 shrivelled the percentage of ethnic Indians’ opportunity for tertiary education.

The double-standard examinations used for university entrance – matriculation and STPM – deprived many ethnic Indians making it to tertiary education in government universities and the chances of getting scholarships for overseas’ education. The poor ethnic Indians were those who were affected most because of this politically twisted system. The poor Indians are naturally discriminated against by a lopsided education system.

Low sense of worth
The over 500 Tamil schools in the country is no remedy to the plight of this ethnic group. Most of this schools are dilapidated and not fully-aided government schools. Over 80 percent of ethnic Indian children end up becoming dropouts at the primary school level, when they enter secondary schools and before they have finished 11 years of education. They are ill-equipped with literacy skills to cope with studies beyond the elementary stage.  Access to even the lowest level skills training Institutions are deprived for this community resulting in most of them remaining unemployed or unskilled workers

After about six decades years of independence, there are thousands of ethnic minority Indians left being undocumented – without birth certificates, identity cards or marriage certificates. This has deprived them of even basic education. Without these legal documents they cannot go to school, obtain licences to do business or secure employment.
Indian participation in the civil service has been reduced to less than 2 percent in 2010. Seventy percent (70%) of ethnic Indians have been doomed into becoming labourers, IMG (Industrial Manual Group workers, office boys, security guards, public toilet cleaners, general workers and road sweepers.  Sixty percent (60%) of ethnic Indians are lower income earners and 85 percent of Indian workers in the manufacturing sector are low level workers. Sixty percent (65%) of Malaysian Indians work as plantation or urban underpaid labourers

Despair, poverty and lack of opportunities and UMNO-led BN lopsided policies have led to high Indian involvement in crime arising out of poverty. beggars, squatters, criminals and gangsters. A significant number of Indian youth have become social delinquents due to their low sense of worth.

Beyond that, ethnic Indians have been deprived of business licenses permits, business loans and opportunities for small businesses or commercial licenses for them to run businesses – resulting in less than 1 percent Indian participation in the country’s economic wealth.

Justice for all
UMNO-led BN have been promising the poor ethnic Indians heaven when they cannot even deliver scraps to them. Disappointingly, the government  has not kept to their promises. 

The poor Indians are still languishing in poverty with not much hope in sight for a better life under the present government.

UMNO-led BN has failed to honour their ‘gracious pledge’ to help the poor Indians but have craftily made use of their hollow rhetoric to win votes and stay in power. A few ringgit doled out to the poor just before elections is not going to bring votes to UMNO or BN. 

What's more, the poor on their part are not too ambitious to become filthy rich. Neither are they interested in going for a multi-thousand ringgit shopping spree or spending nights in posh hotels at the expense of tax-payers’ money. They are only seeking for the basic needs in life – food on the table, education for their children, a reasonable  income to make ends meet and a decent shelter to live in.

In this country of opportunity not only the poor Indians who are marginalised. The poor Malays, Chinese and the Indigenous of this country – who have by design or default made this country their home – are equally been marginalised under the UMNO-led BN government. A responsible government has to see the rights and positions of all citizens irrespective of race, creed or religion honoured. This is clearly ordained in the constitution.

Since those who are marginalised are not confined to one community alone, it is time for every Malaysian to rise above racial politics, thrust aside racial parties, liberate this nation from endemic corruption and injustice at every level and cherish together for a Malaysia where the people can perceive themselves as less Malay, Chinese, Indian or Indigenous. The people should long for a government that is ‘colour blind’ – that helps all the poor irrespective of their race, creed or religion.

The voting pattern will swing when there are ethnic groups that are deprived of these basic needs and have come to understand that they are being discriminated against. Mere rhetoric and promises to win elections are not going to influence the enlightened poor to vote for the incumbent government. The voting trend will definitely change in the coming general election.

by Moaz Nair

Malaysia Chronicle 

Why no Indian-majority seat? The manner in which the country or the total electorate has been divided into electoral constituencies over the years, has cruelly and crucially affected the Indian electoral strength.

Electoral constituencies in Malaysia are determined in two steps. First, the apportionment of parliamentary constituencies among the various states; and second, the delineation of both parliamentary and state constituencies in each state.The ruling party controls the apportionment among states through amendments to Article 46 of the Federal Constitution. The Election Commission then delineates the apportioned constituencies. As there is a lack of specification of the rules governing the EC on this particular function, the numerous delineation exercises that have been conducted in Malaysia since Merdeka have been carved in particular to favour the ruling Umno government.

In this discriminatory process, the third largest race in the country consisting of more than two million people have ended up been denied and do not have a single constituency of being the majority.

This has been the single biggest contributory factor that has led the Indians in this country to having the lowest demographic index among all races in Malaysia. Even though there are several Indian elected representatives in Parliament as well as in state assemblies, the very fact that they are elected from constituencies where Indians are only a minority, they are in truth toothless to highlight or champion gross marginalisation and discrimination policies of the Indians by the government of the day as they are dependent on the majority communities mainly the Malays and Chinese in their respective constituencies.

Constituency delineation has two aspects that can affect electoral outcomes: the distribution of the total electorate among constituencies (apportionment) and the determination of constituency boundaries (districting). Both have been exploited for partisan political advantage by the Umno government and are common and effective forms of electoral abuses that have been implemented to shortchange the Indian population in Malaysia to become “voiceless” in the ballot.

The government, through the EC, has delineated constituencies with unequal electorates (ie mal-apportionment) to favour themselves with more Malay majority supporters in the smaller constituencies. The constituency boundaries have also been drawn to favour Umno and disadvantage the Indian community, a practice commonly known as gerrymandering.

Worsens racial polarization
The manner in which the country or the total electorate has been divided into electoral constituencies over the years, has cruelly and crucially affected the Indian electoral strength outcome under plurality election.

The bias application of rural weightage, which since 1973 has been constitutionally left to the discretion of the EC has also gravely contributed in rendering the Indian vote powerless. This has aggravated the Indian political dilemma, heightened perceptions of political inequalities particularly for the Indians and worsened racial polarization among Malaysians.

It is indeed shocking and very “backward” to note that while Indians reside in large numbers in many areas like Sungai Petani, Padang Serai, Batu Kawan, Nibong Tebal, Ipoh Barat, Bagan Datoh, Teluk Intan, Tanjung Malim, Sungai Siput, Klang, Kota Raja, Kuala Selangor, Hulu Selangor, Kuala Langat, Kapar, Sepang, Kelana Jaya, Teluk Kemang, Rasah, Cameron Highlands and Lembah Pantai, the EC has not seen it fit to carve out even a single Indian majority constituency but is able to bend over backwards and create Malay majority constituencies like in Putrajaya.

Perlis for example has 15 state assembly seats having less than 9,600 voters consisting mainly Malay Muslims. Putrajaya has only a miserable 5,096 voters but consisting of 95% Malay Muslim majority.

The Indians voters number more than 715,000 but have zero number of Indian majority constituencies. Sabah voters number 802,000 but have 25 parliamentary and 60 state seats. Sarawak voters number 886,000 but have 31 parliamentary and 71 state seats.
The Orang Ulu’s that form just 0.005% of the Malaysian population have four majority state seats crafted and created specially for them. They even have a parliamentary seat (Baram) having 42.8% Orang Ulu’s with a smaller voter composition of 24,398 in total.
The Indians for that matter in comparison consists of 8% of the Malaysian population but have zero Indian majority constituencies. Very “backward” indeed!

Others give voice to minorities
All over the world, democracy is preserved and enhanced by giving a “voice” to the minorities through the ballot by providing constitutional legislative reserve seats so that their legitimate interests will be protected and not drowned by the majority, except in Malaysia.

In Singapore the Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) provides for mandatory Malay and Indian candidates to be listed to total about one third of the total Singapore parliamentary constituencies with the view that minority interests will be protected.
In the Republic of India, the minority Anglo Indians have been granted two reserved Lower House of parliament (Lok Sabha) seats.

In Lebanon, Belgium, Cyprus and even in Zimbabwe, communal rolls and special electoral requirements to accommodate the representation of cultural groups based on religion or language are in existence to protect minority interests.

Nowhere in the whole world are there any civilized democracy practicising nation where the third largest race consisting of 8% of the population but do not even have a single constituency having a majority of its race.

Selangor has the highest concentration of Indians in the country. More than one third of the Indian population in Malaysia resides in the state. However since 1974, through two successive delineation exercises in 1984 and 1994, the difference between the actual parliamentary seats allocated versus the number of parliamentary seats that Selangor should have been allocated has been reduced systematically from -3 to -4, the worst in the entire Peninsular Malaysia!

Based on all these factors and looking at the current state of more than 70% of the Indians in this country marginalised and living in poverty having the lowest demographic index amongst all the races in Malaysia due to no proper representation without fear or favour at the highest level, the Human Rights Party proposed to the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) on electoral reform that thee be at least 53 constituencies where Indians make up a significant majority of voters.

It is because the voter make-up in present state and parliamentary constituencies make the Indian voters the minority and as such their rights are not championed in the assembly houses.

I am not proposing Indian representatives to be elected but merely Indian majority seats be created so that all the woes of the Malaysian Indians will be highlighted at the justified gravity levels of their grievances.

I would even go so far as to propose for a Malay-Muslim representative be elected in such a Indian majority created constituency to give it a truly “multi racial” image in the very same manner as how some falsely claim, Indian representatives being elected in Malay-Muslim majority constituencies as being “multi racial”.




P Uthayakumar is the pro-tem secretary-general of the Human Rights Party.

The fate of Malaysian Indians lies in the hand of Pakatan Rakyat with its colour-blind policy

Out of 30 cabinet ministers in the Federal Government, 23 of them are Malays from UMNO, which is 77% of the cabinet ministers. There is only one cabinet minister appointed from MIC that is S. Subramaniam. S. Subramaniam is the sole Malaysian Indian cabinet minister and the sole appointment only constitutes 3% of the cabinet ministers.
With the appointment of G. Palanivel as the second Malaysian Indian cabinet minister appointed from MIC, the percentage of Malaysian Indian ministers will subsequently increase from three percents to six percents. Is Najib bringing us back to Tun Razak's time? Not really so.

When UMNO cabinet ministers still form a substantial 74% even with the appointment of G. Palanivel as full cabinet minister, the way cabinet works will continue to be as usual as before.

Therefore, the statement from Najib that "he is bringing us back to Tun Razak's time with two Indian cabinet ministers" is quite untrue in the sense that it is not the same cabinet line-up like Tun Razak's time. Even so, UMNO's 74% dominance in the cabinet is also questionable when the UMNO only contributes 56% of the total number of BN's MPs in Dewan Rakyat.

The fate of Malaysian Indians does not depend on such number games but Pakatan Rakyat's colour-blind policy. The problems that Malaysian Indian community is facing must be viewed as Malaysian problems and our problems. The problems that they are facing cannot be pushed aside as if the problems are only within the community itself and will not affect others. Such mentality must be discarded immediately.

For example, there are people talking about high poverty rate and the marginalization of poor working class Indian families to the extent that young Malaysian Indians from such brackground, who are mainly school drop-outs with little education, become gangsters and involve in criminal activities. Have we ever thought helping the community to improve their livelihood, schooling conditions and even their spiritual needs instead of pushing it as the problems of the community?

The community has heard many power-packed speeches from the past and present leaders. Unfortunately the community was disappointed once and again. To put salt into wounds, Najib The prime minister yesterday even said there must be "quid pro quo" between Barisan Nasional BN component party MIC and the ruling coalition if both wished to benefit from their relationship as "loyal friends". He claimed that "there must be an understanding", that the "MIC must deliver first, then BN will deliver".

Such statement is no different from Najib's infamous "You help me, I help you" statement made during Sibu by-election in 2010. Can we imagine that the fate of 1.9 million Malaysian Indians rely solely on barter trade made between Najib and Palanivel?

The community does not require a wishlist like what is proposed by G. Palanivel. What they require is a comprehensive plan to place the community into mainstream development, possessing the competitive edge and ability to face immediate and future challenges. Pakatan Rakyat is working hard on this with our limited resources not only for the Indians but also for the poor and marginalized Malaysians. The "Merakyatkan Ekonomi Selangor" (MES) policy by Selangor Pakatan Rakyat state government is a reflection of our sincerity to uplift the living standard of the poor and marginalized Selangor people including poor Indians living either in urban areas, estates or plantations.

The way forward for Malaysian Indians can no longer rely on the race-based barter trade between Najib and Palanivel. Instead, it must be based on colour-blind policy.




Lau Weng San, DAP Selangor State Organizing Secretary & SA for Kampung Tunku

5 reasons why Penang won't go to the polls this year if Najib dissolves Parliament

As speculation rises whether Prime Minister Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak will call for snap elections on this auspicious date of 11 November 2011, there are 5 key reasons why Penang will not follow suit and hold concurrent elections with the federal parliamentary seats this year.

One, BN has still not fulfilled its promise to repeal the Internal Security Act and disbursed RM 500 to all households earning below RM3,000 per month.  Questions are raised as to whether BN will conduct a mere cosmetic exercise of repealing the ISA but replacing it with two ISA-like laws. resulting in Malaysians ending up with two ISAs instead of one.
The disbursement of RM100 to students this year when this measure is included in the budget is for 2012 and not 2011 raises questions of legality especially when the 2012 Budget has still not being passed in Parliament. Further if the RM100 is to be paid this year when it is not budgeted in this year 2011 budget, where is the Federal government getting the money from.

Lest we forget Malaysia recorded a budget deficit this year as has been a deficit for 15 years. The National Deficit for 2010 is RM43.27billion, for 2011 is RM45.51 billion whilst the 2012 projected deficit for is RM43billion. (4.7% out of RM918 billion nominal GDP projected). Where is the Federal government going to get the extra RM530 million for giving to school students RM100 this year when it is not budgeted for 2011 and will only increase the 2011 deficit further?

Two, holding general elections now would be unfair to those performing the haj as they will be denied their right to vote and determine the next government. The last batch of the Haj pilgrims are not expected back until Dec 11 and almost 30,000 Malaysians went to Mecca to perform their pilgrimage

Three, the failure and refusal by the BN government to explain the misappropriation of funds, gross irregularities and abuses of power as outlined in the 2010 Auditor-General’s Report. The 2010 Auditor-General Report reminds Malaysians of everything that is wrong in the BN Federal government. Night-vision marine binoculars costing only RM 1,940 are bought at a price of RM56,350, a TV LCD and DVD player bought with a contract price of RM16,100 was supplied with an inferior brand valued at only RM195; RM770,000 was spent to supply electricity to one house.

The Auditor-General's Report said nine ministries or departments had overspent their operating allocation for last year by a total of RM3.73 billion and even a Minister Datuk Shahrizat Abdul Jalil is involved when a RM73.6 million cattle-farming project is given to her family’s company. Her husband is the Executive Chairman while her son is the CEO. The rest of her children, meanwhile, are executive directors.

Many  questions remained unanswered about this National Feedlot Corporation project in Gemas, Negri Sembilan. Chief amongst its failures is its production of only 3,289 heads in 2010 or 41.1 per cent of its intended target of 8,000 heads. The AG's report also cites poor management as a key factor and points to other failings such as its failure to train enough farmers, a 5,000-acre farmland that is overgrown and poor maintenance of its facilities.
Naturally, Malaysians are concerned about public money which includes an additional soft loan of RM250 million being used to fund this "family business", especially when it is turning out to be a monumental failure. In addition, Sharizat has still to deny reports of how the funds were used on non-cow related purposes including an allegation by PKR that nearly RM10 million was spent to purchase a high-end condominium.

Four, the Parliamentary Select Committee of Electoral Reforms have still not completed its hearings to carry out reforms to ensure a free, fair and clean elections. Failure to do so would permit the dirtiest general elections in history with phantom voters and illegal immigrants being transformed magically to citizens and voters in a few hours. Would Malaysia’s destiny be determined by Malaysian citizens or phantom voters and illegal immigrants?

Five, the national agenda for the end of this year should be focused on flood prevention and mitigation. Malaysians should learn from the horrors of floods in Thailand that has caused tragic loss of life and huge financial losses. To hold general elections now during the rainy monsoon season when flood victims are more bothered about surviving than voting, would be not only be a denial of their democratic right of choice but cruel and inhumane.
If Najib insists on calling snap polls this year, then the Penang Pakatan Rakyat will hold a special convention where a recommendation will be made not to hold the state election together with the federal parliament.

Lim Guan Eng is the Penang Chief Minister and DAP secretary-general

Will Parliament be dissolved on Monday?

There is talk that come Monday, October 10, Parliament may be dissolved and snap general elections called.
Such a move would follow Prime Minister Najib Razak's tabling of the Budget 2012, a spending plan that many say will be designed to prime the electorate into keeping his BN coalition in power. And of course, to give the much needed public mandate to Najib himself to continue as the country's 6th premier.
Frankly, the guessing game about the timing of the 13th general election has been red-hot since the start of this year. Many had expected March, July, November and even March 2012. But although the tide may currently be on the side of those who predicted March next year, there is still heavy expectation that Najib will go for the kill next month.
If this is indeed so, then he 'must' dissolve Parliament by Monday. Of course, he can do it after tabling the budget this afternoon or even over the weekend, but many politicians say it is Monday if GE-13 is to be in November.

Why Monday
The reasons are simple, if Najib didn't dissolve Parliament by then, the Budget 2012 would have to be debated on Monday itself, which would be a waste of time with election just a month ahead.
Secondly, why risk the opposition poking all sorts of holes into his grand plan which will surely be praised to the skies by the country's mainstream media, radio and TV networks, which are all government-controlled.
Yes, such a move allows the BN to push through ‘sweeteners’ while leaving the Pakatan Rakyat parliamentarians less time to find areas of contention. It is a quick means to shut out public scrutiny. And when the Budget is later re-tabled, provided of course the BN wins, Najib can always find ways to 'gracefully' climb down from his grandiose promises!

Two camps
Within Umno, it has become so obvious there are two camps that even the staunchest supporter can no longer deny the split. Najib's camp wants early snap polls before the party's annual assembly in December to ward off an attempt to make him announce a succession plan in favour of his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin.
Obviously Muhyiddin, and more significantly Mahathir Mohamad, the influential former premier, want GE-13 next year.They are worried Najib's personal scandals will weaken the BN's chances and want to go into GE-13 with the question mark over his lackluster leadership fully resolved, so that the people can feel comfortable voting the BN once again.
Yes, GE-13 will be very much determined by the coming Umno general assembly. There are many ominous signs of warlordism taking precedence and the clamoring for the Umno supreme council to name a successor is growing. Much like how Abdullah Badawi was treated in 2008.
This has been the rationale put forward by the November GE-13 forecasters. They are betting Najib will try to forestall the Umno intrigue by getting his own mandate, and should he be able to maintain the status quo or even wrest Selangor back from the Pakatan, then he would have guaranteed himself another term.
And in Najib's second term, he and wife Rosmah Mansor won't be wearing kids' gloves anymore. And this is something Mahathir and Muhyiddin would be wise to take note of.

The Anwar factor
There is also the issue of Anwar Ibrahim, who is currently entangled in Sodomy II prosecution. The trial is on-going and by calling snap elections now, Anwar will find it tough to whole-heartedly campaign.
This would be another plus in Najib’s game plan, where he wants to remove Anwar permanently from the political landscape and win brownie points from the Umno warlords who do not want Pakatan Rakyat hanging around and interfering in their business schemes.
Dissolving Parliament right after tabling the budget could also be a case of ‘lets get it done and over with’. Swayed by the his own positive public relations and secure in the delusion that rural Malaysia might still vote BN come what may, Najib might just press the button on November.

Mahathir is still the linchpin
However, given the latest signs which have grown stronger after the unveiling of the Pakatan's Prosperity For All alternative Budget 2012, chances are much slimmer now for a GE this years. It will not be easy for Najib, who is also Finance minister, to trump the Pakatan's plan and he is expected to copy extensively from it.
With the recent Bukit Kepong incident and even the hudud law issue boomeranging, as Malaysians see through the stale scaremongering tactics, it is now much more likely that Najib will defer to Mahathir as he has always done and postpone his election plans.
Even so, for the final confirmation and until Najib himself denies GE-13 will be this year, all eyes will be on him after he unveils Budget 2012 today. And if he keeps mum, then Monday will tell for sure when GE-13 will be.
Of course, this will then lead to the 2012 guessing game, and by the way, GE13 does not necessarily have to be in March/April 2012!

Malaysia Chronicle