Saturday, April 24, 2010

Another Malaysian By-Election Sunday

A Critical Political Litmus Test for the Country's Future

On Sunday, Malaysia heads into a record tenth by-election since the opposition Pakatan Rakyat broke the national ruling coalition's two-thirds hold on Parliament in March of 2008. So far, of the nine previous elections, the opposition has won seven without any real alteration in the balance of power.

Admittedly, many Malaysians are fed up – they are tired of the empty promises that by-elections bring, the disappointments that come with politicians on both sides of the political divide not delivering on electoral promises, the pettiness of the campaign mud-slinging and the distraction from addressing the problems the country is facing.

This election, however, is one where people should take notice. More than any other by-election since 2008, this is a political litmus test for the country's future. It is a national contest with national stakes. Foremost, it is a referendum on the prime minister. One year on since his elevation to national leadership, this provides voters an opportunity to provide an assessment of his tenure.

Najib's record is mixed. For Malaysian voters, the crucial electoral issue has historically been the economy. Here the Barisan Nasional, the ruling national coalition, has the advantage. Najib has benefitted from the rebound in the international economy, which contributed to increased economic growth in the last few quarters.

Malaysia's economy is now returning to the levels it was pre-crisis in 2008. Inflation levels have stabilized, and fuel and food prices do not appear as high as they did two years ago. This advantage is shallow, however, and will come down to perceptions. Not much of this growth has trickled down to this large constituency, around the size of the state of Malacca.
In this area in Northeastern Selangor State where population numbers have been growing as part of the sprawl of the suburban growth around Kuala Lumpur, the challenges of affordable housing, rising health care and education costs, sky-rocketing crime levels, stagnant wage levels and unemployment remain paramount.

The Hulu Selangor district is comprised of diverse economic backgrounds, but the overwhelming share of voters are struggling to make ends meet and fulfill their dreams. Najib's popularity will be tested by an election poll, rather than public opinion polling.

Voters will struggle to assess credit and blame, as Hulu Selangor also falls within the rubric of a Pakatan Rakyat-run state government. While its three elected state representatives are from the Barisan, the most-contested opposition government (after Perak of course) is also facing a test.

A loss for Pakatan at the parliamentary level would translate as a loss of support and faith in Pakatan at the state level. Hulu Selangor is a constituency that has undergone considerable land development, yet remains largely semi-rural. It has not seen large inflows of capital, just more people. It is not clear how this constituency fits within Pakatan's plan for Selangor.

Selangor Pakatan – like Najib – faces a struggle in demonstrating concrete benefits of their efforts in government to the voters. This is particularly acute for the state government, since it has limited machinery in the area – traditionally a safe Barisan seat. This contest will force Selangor Pakatan to reflect on what it has achieved and how it will deepen its efforts to bring better governance to Hulu Selangor voters.

Signal on rebuilding the Barisan
For Malaysia as a whole, the candidate selection within the Barisan has highlighted another key test. Can the Barisan work effectively as a unit?

Since March 2008, Malaysia has been predominantly an UMNO government, as the Malaysian Indian Congress and the Malaysian Chinese Association have been embroiled in crises and have yet to move beyond the massive defeats they faced in the last general election.

By choosing an MIC candidate, Najib has sent a signal that he genuinely wants to rebuild the non-Malay component parties. He did not bow to pressure from UMNO warlords and in particular from Muhammad Muhammad Taib, a Hulu Selangor native and UMNO information chief, to give the seat to one of its own and a Malay.

This is an indication that Najib respects the established model of seat allocations and still believes in the multi-ethnic coalition. He has opted to give the seat to arguably the weakest link in the Barisan party structure. It also shows the recognition that UMNO cannot hold national power without its multi-ethnic parties.

Now the problem of working together looms. Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has noted that he will follow a new electoral strategy of Barisan cooperation. Seeing is believing. Relations among the component parties are frayed. Deep factions persist. Many in UMNO in Selangor are deeply unhappy with the MIC choice, the 44-year-old P. Kamalanathan. Zaid Ibrahim, a prominent Kuala Lumpur lawyer, is the Pakatan candidate.

The fact that a Shah Alam UMNO member is an independent candidate shows that the issue of UMNO fielding its own candidate runs deep. Many have a vested interest in seeing the MIC candidate lose, since it would boost the chances of this seat being given to UMNO in the next general election.

The mixed ethnic composition of this constituency requires effective ethnic cooperation to win, however. The Hulu Selangor contest will test whether the support for the Barisan at the top translates into substantial rebuilding and cohesiveness on the ground. From the perspective of strengthening Barisan cooperation electorally, this contest will be a real challenge.

Test of new blood in MIC
Part of the reason for this challenge lies with the fact that in order to field a MIC candidate, Najib has chosen to directly interfere in MIC politics. Ditto, the decision to field Kamalanathan from the neighboring constituency of Rawang has put MIC president S Samy Vellu on notice. Najib has not supported his choice of successor, G Palanivel. Najib has apparently rebuffed the party president's candidate choice and vision for the MIC's future. He has used his prerogative to chose the candidate, rather than allow the MIC to choose the candidate on its own.

The candidate selection raises serious questions about the future leadership of the MIC and whether the party has autonomy over its own affairs. Is this the pattern for the future? Will leaders in the weak Barisan component parties be chosen by UMNO leaders?

One major effect is that this move has given an opportunity for MIC to bring a new face into parliament. Kamalanathan has strong professional credentials, and is seen (so far) as relatively clean. He is a young leader from the Indian Malaysian community. He does not seem to be completely under the thumb of the MIC party president. His victory has the potential to bring some new life to the the party, which is almost moribund.

The issue of when Samy Vellu will give up power and to whom, however, still looms. On the ground, the contest will test whether the party is able to bring in the new blood it needs or is riddled with infighting.

Referendum on Pakatan as national opposition
Pakatan's nomination of Zaid Ibrahim continues the tradition of using this seat for national politicians. Zaid has played a major role in institutionalizing the opposition, building bridges among the component opposition parties and been a spokesperson on issues of the judiciary and the rule of law, among other issues. He is a national Malay leader with strong appeal across the racial communities. His selection shows that the opposition is committed to strengthening its relationships internally and reaching across the ethnic divisions.

His choice also points to the fact that there is a deficit of national leaders in the opposition with governing experience, and by slating Zaid, the opposition is strengthening its national profile. It is sending the signal that it is serious about winning national power.

Zaid faces major challenges. He has crossed the political divide, so there is intensity to those who want to defeat him especially in UMNO. A defeat would weaken PKR especially, which has suffered a slate of defections.

He is an outsider. It remains to be seen whether he can connect with the Hulu Selangor voters who want strong representation. Hulu Selangor voters will decide whether the opposition will strengthen or weaken nationally.

Referendum by non-Malays
This seat is a fitting place for this to happen if it does. Traditionally Hulu Selangor has been a safe seat for Barisan, which even won the seat in 1999 at the height of the reformasi movement. Yet there was a change in the last round, largely in Indian and Chinese areas. The main swing in 2008 was in Indian majority areas towards the opposition.

The opposition gains among the Indian community were significant and the critical factor that swung the seat in their favor. This contest will be a test of whether the Indian community is satisfied with the opposition, or would prefer to return their loyalty to the Barisan, where it has traditionally been. The Indian community is rightly asking what either side has done for them.

The swing in this seat extended to the Chinese community as well. The Chinese votes for the opposition were as important as the Indian voters, given the closeness of the race. Hulu Selangor will provide the testing ground for the new MCA leadership and be an important bellwether of non-Malay support nationally.

Underscoring this will be the Prime Minister Najib's 1Malaysia concept, which is designed to bring Malaysia's delicate racial equation back into balance. It has already come under attack on the first day of campaigning by the opposition. Zaid will rely heavily on non-Malay support if he is to win.

Referendum by Malays
Since March 2008, UMNO has used the issue of the lack of Malay unity to instill insecurity in the Malay community. Polls show that the community is deeply divided over Najib's proposed New Economic Model and religious issues. Ultra nationalists in UMNO have capitalized on these issues, which played out recently over the formation of Perkasa. The perception that has been created is that Malays are under attack. This has been a strategy to bring back Malay support to UMNO.

Fittingly, Zaid's candidacy puts these issues to the test. He has written on the importance of his ethnic identity and directly spoken to what it means to be Malay.

Voters in Hulu Selangor will have a simple racial test – to choose a Malay or Indian candidate. If indeed race is so important for the Malay community, then one would expect a boost to Zaid.

The fact of the matter is that Hulu Selangor Malay voters did not vote purely racially in 2008. In fact, the Barisan made gains in many of the Malay areas. Given that the Barisan won on average an estimated 60 percent of the Malay votes in Hulu Selangor, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues. The nationally heated racial context will undoubtedly bring Malay issues into the campaign, from concerns over the NEP to the form of their representation.

The Barisan has the most to lose, given that they depended heavily on Malays for keeping them in the race in the first place. UMNO has machinery in place in these areas which will allow them to dampen any possible Malay race-based voting. Ironically, by not fielding a Malay candidate, the Barisan has hurt its chances in this contest, given the racially oriented focus of the party of late.

Referendum by young people
Beyond the ethnic pattern of voting, the other striking feature in past voting is age. The overwhelming majority of younger voters in this constituency voted for the opposition. This trend was across ethnic communities.

There are 1,000 additional new voters registered. For either side to win, they have to win over these crucial decisive voters, whose proximity to Kuala Lumpur will assure that they will likely go home to vote. The campaign with the most appeal to the young will win. This has meant that both parties have to use different campaigning techniques – Internet and canvassing – to gain support.

Every vote will count. The need for a fair fight in this important constituency is crucial. Expect high voter turnout, a tense dynamic contest and ultimately important national markers for the future of Malaysian politics. Based on trends in polling and the traditional advantage of the Barisan machinery in this constituency, in contrast to the views of others, I believe that the Barisan has the advantage. For me, it is a constituency with the potential to be more easily swayed by financial rewards, which give the Barisan an advantage and are the norm in a by-election where the money flows in. The campaign has begun, however, and it is a highly competitive race that can go either way. If the opposition wants to win this seat they will have to fight hard for it.




Bridget Welsh
Associate Professor of Politocal Science
Singapore Management University

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Malaysia's Submarine Scandal Surfaces in France

Murky arms deal linked to international pattern of kickbacks

A potentially explosive scandal in Malaysia over the billion-dollar purchase of French submarines, a deal engineered by then-Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak, has broken out of the domestic arena with the filing of a request to investigate bribery and kickbacks from the deal in a Paris court.

Although the case has been contained for eight years in the cozy confines of Malaysia's courts and parliament, which are dominated by the ruling National Coalition, French lawyers William Bourdon, Renaud Semerdjian and Joseph Breham put an end to that when they filed it with Parisian prosecutors on behalf of the Malaysian human rights organization Suaram, which supports good-government causes.

Judges in the Paris Prosecution Office have been probing a wide range of corruption charges involving similar submarine sales and the possibility of bribery and kickbacks to top officials in France, Pakistan and other countries. The Malaysian piece of the puzzle was added in two filings, on Dec. 4, 2009 and Feb. 23 this year.

For two years, Parisian prosecutors, led by investigating judges Francoise Besset and Jean-Christophe Hullin, have been gingerly investigating allegations involving senior French political figures and the sales of submarines and other weaponry to governments all over the world. French news reports have said the prosecutors have backed away from some of the most serious charges out of concern for the political fallout.

The allegations relate to one of France's biggest defense conglomerates, the state-owned shipbuilder DCN, which merged with the French electronics company Thales in 2005 to become a dominant force in the European defense industry. DCN's subsidiary Armaris is the manufacturer of Scorpene-class diesel submarines sold to India, Pakistan and Malaysia among other countries. All of the contracts, according to the lawyers acting for Suaram, a Malaysian human rights NGO, are said to be suspect.

With Najib having moved on from the defense portfolio he held when the deal was put together in 2002 to become prime minister and head of the country's largest political party, the mess has the potential to become a major liability for the government and the United Malays National Organisation. Given the power of UMNO, it is unlikely the scandal would ever get any airing in a Malaysian court, which is presumably why Suaram reached out to French prosecutors.

"The filings are very recent and have so far prompted a preliminary police inquiry on the financial aspects of the deal," said a Paris-based source familiar with France's defense establishment. "There isn't a formal investigation yet. The investigation will most likely use documents seized at DCN in the course of another investigation, focusing on bribes paid by DCN in Pakistan.

The source said police have confined their inquiry to bribery allegations so far and have not looked into the 2006 murder of a Mongolian woman in Malaysia who was a translator on the deal for Najib and his friend, Abdul Razak Baginda, during a visit to Paris.

There have been numerous deaths involving DCN defense sales in Taiwan and Pakistan. Prosecutors are suspicious that 11 French submarine engineers who were murdered in a 2002 bomb blast in Karachi – first thought to have been the work of Al Qaeda – were actually killed in retaliation for the fact that the French had reneged on millions of dollars in kickbacks to Pakistani military officers.

The Malaysian allegations revolve around the payment of €114 million to a Malaysia-based company called Perimekar, for support services surrounding the sale of the submarines. Perimekar was wholly owned by another company, KS Ombak Laut Sdn Bhd, which in turn was controlled by Najib's best friend, Razak Baginda, whose wife Mazalinda, a lawyer and former magistrate, was the principal shareholder, according to the French lawyers.

"Over the past years, serious cases have been investigated in France by judges involving DCN," lawyer Renaud Semerdjian told Asia Sentinel in a telephone interview. "This is not the first case of this kind that is being investigated. There are others in Pakistan and there are some issues about India. To a certain extent, every time weapons of any kind have been provided, suspicion of violation of the law may be very high.

As defense minister from 2000 to 2008, Najib commissioned a huge military buildup to upgrade Malaysia's armed forces, including two submarines from Armaris and the lease of a third, a retired French Navy Agosta-class boat. There were also Sukhoi supersonic fighter jets from Russia and millions of dollars spent on coastal patrol boats. All have come under suspicion by opposition leaders in Malaysia's parliament but UMNO has stifled any investigation. Asked personally about the cases, Najib has responded angrily and refused to reply.

Despite efforts to bury it, the case achieved considerably notoriety after the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu, a 28-year-old Mongolian translator and Razak Baginda's jilted lover, who participated in negotiations over the purchase of the submarines. By her own admission in a letter found after her death, she was attempting to blackmail Razak Baginda for US$500,000.

She was shot in October 2006 and her body was blown up with military explosives by two bodyguards attached to Najib's office after Razak Baginda went to Najib's chief of staff, Musa Safri, for help in keeping her away from him. Not long after being acquitted in November 2008 under questionable circumstances of participating in her murder, Razak Baginda left the country for England. The bodyguards were convicted but no motive was ever established for their actions despite a confession by one which was not allowed in court, but which said they would be paid a large sum of money to get rid of her.

The submarine deal was never brought up in court during a months-long murder trial that was marked by prosecutors, defense attorneys and the judge working studiously to keep Najib's name out of the proceedings. A private detective hired by Razak Baginda to protect him from the furious Altantuya filed a statutory declaration after the trial indicating that Najib had actually been the victim's lover and had passed her on to Razak Baginda.

The detective, P. Balasubramaniam, said later that he was unceremoniously run out of Kuala Lumpur. He eventually emerged from hiding in India to say he had been offered RM5 million (US$1.57 million) by a businessman close to Najib's wife to shut up and get out of town. He also said he had met Nazim Razak, Najib's younger brother, and was told to recant his testimony.

In the current complaint in Paris, the issue revolves around what, if anything, Razak Baginda's Perimekar company did to deserve €114 million. Zainal Abidin, the deputy defense minister at the time of the sale, told parliament that Perimekar had received the amount – 11 percent of the sale price of the submarines – for "coordination and support services." The Paris filing alleges that there were neither support nor services.

Perimekar was registered in 2001, a few months before the signing of the contracts for the sale, the Paris complaint states. The company, it said flatly, "did not have the financial resources to complete the contract." A review of the accounts in 2001 and 2002, the complaint said, "makes it an obvious fact that this corporation had absolutely no capacity, or legal means or financial ability and/or expertise to support such a contract."

"None of the directors and shareholders of Perimekar have the slightest experience in the construction, maintenance or submarine logistics," the complaint adds. "Under the terms of the contract, €114 million were related to the different stages of construction of the submarines." The apparent consideration, supposedly on the part of Perimekar, "would be per diem and Malaysian crews and accommodation costs during their training. There is therefore no link between billing steps and stages of completion of the consideration.

"As Asia Sentinel reported on April 1, services for the subs are being performed by a well-connected firm called Boustead DCNS, a joint venture between BHIC Defence Technologies Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of publicly-listed Boustead Heavy Industries Corp Bhd, and DCNS SA, a subsidiary of DCN. Boustead's Heavy Industries Division now includes Perimekar as an "associate of the Group. PSB is involved in the marketing, upgrading, maintenance and related services for the Malaysian maritime defence industry," according to Boustead's annual report.

Originally Boustead told the Malaysian Stock Exchange that the service contract was for RM600 million (US$184.1 million) for six years, or US$30.68 million annually. However, the contract later ballooned to RM270 million per year. Boustead Holdings is partly owned by the government and has close connections with UMNO.

"There are good grounds to believe that [Perimekar] was created with a single objective: arrange payment of the commission and allocate the amount between different beneficiaries including Malaysian public officials and or Malaysian or foreign intermediaries," the complaint states






AsiaSentinel.com

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Flinging the racist Label at Hindraf

Listen all you people who have been flinging the ‘Racist’ label at Hindraf – if the 25 November 2007 uprising organized by Hindraf had not happened, we would not have had a political tsunami on 8 March 2008!

We can flail our arms and criticize the Hindraf leadership all we want but let us be “politically correct” about racism and who the racists are in Malaysia. Yes! It’s important to be politically correct on this issue because otherwise our political analysis becomes erroneous, leading to incorrect practice and more importantly, we let off the real villains!

Indians a Specially Oppressed Section
Hindraf happened because the marginalized Indians in this country are a specially oppressed section of the working class. It is an oppression that has taken on a racist character through the years, so much so that even middle class Indians; especially the youth have also become the victims of police brutality.

The Indian working class is among the poorest in the country and they do not have the benefit of affirmative action because they have been classified as “Non-bumiputera” . Indians are a minority in this country but they form the majority when it comes to statistics on deaths in police custody or police killings.

We should be glad the Hindraf uprising happened and the political ripple it created after the 2008 general elections. Credit should be given to their leaders for achieving this feat and for breaking the decades of MIC patronage and pacifism.

The uprising certainly did not happen through the MIC nor did it happen through the other political parties in this country no matter what they say now. It is pointless being wise after the event or to advertise your pristine party – the fact is, HINDRAF succeeded where the other political parties failed to do, namely, to mobilize the Indian masses to come out in revolt on 25 November 2007.

Right to Separate Organisation
Being a specially oppressed and marginalized section of the masses, it is the right of the Indian masses to organize separately just as the Black Movement developed in the West during the sixties. Similarly, women have the right to organize separately through their special circumstances as an oppressed section of the population.

But to then say that Indians or Blacks are “racist” or that feminists are “sexist” is to expose your own shortcoming and more importantly, to let off the culprits who cause racial oppression and gender oppression in our society.

Racism and Racial Discrimination in Malaysia
Racism or more specifically, “Bumiputeraism” has been the dominant ideology of the Malay capitalist class ever since May 13, 1969. It has been practiced under the guise of the “New Economic Policy” and that racism has been covertly disseminated through state institutions such as the Biro TataNegara all these years. It is a marvel that it has taken so long for this racist garbage perpetrated through the BTN to be exposed! Before long, we will hear of racist propaganda in other state institutions especially schools and hostels since the seventies.

In 1986, this racism was flagrantly espoused by Abdullah Ahmad in his infamous “Malay Dominance” speech in Singapore but the cat was let out of the bag when Mahathir had a spat with Nazri recently and they were calling each other ‘Racist’…

More recently, we have seen the formation of Perkasa, which is none other than UMNO’s alter-ego. It has been delegated the role of the racist lobbyist traditionally played by UMNO Youth while UMNO tries desperately to change its spots to win over the Nons after the 2008 debacle.

The stereotypes created by this “Bumiputraist” racism to justify the New Economic Policy remain in circulation: We recently heard Perkasa shouting the old refrain that “the Chinese” still dominate the Malaysian economy. It was a cue for UMNO to continue the NEP in another guise, the New Economic Model. While this has populist appeal to win over the Malay voters, the main beneficiaries are the well-connected capitalists of diverse ethnicities under UMNO hegemony.

The marginalized Indians who make up some of the poorest and most oppressed sections among West Malaysians have been portrayed in a racist light. Thus Indians have been the main victims of racial killings such as at Kampong Medan in 2001, deaths in police custody as well as trigger happy police shootings. (See Policing the Malaysian Police, SUARAM 2005)

Our indigenous peoples and migrant workers have also been portrayed in a racist light and the recent historic uprising by our Orang Asli community was truly uplifting.

WHITHER HINDRAF?
Having a separate organization does not of course guarantee that its leadership will be necessarily progressive. Since 2008, we have seen the Hindraf leadership split into various factions.

It is in the common interest of all communities to fight racism on a class basis. In this day and age, affirmative action is not justifiable for any ethnic community which has undergone class differentiation. Thus, I would think that neither the Malay, Chinese, Indian, Kadazanmurut nor Iban communities can justify any affirmative action. However, communities that are not yet class differentiated such as the Orang Asli and Penan communities may justify affirmative action as a particular community.

The best non-racist approach to progress is still affirmative action based on class or sector.

All progressive Malaysians must unite around their struggles and stop flinging the ‘racist’ label about. The racists are the Umnoputras who control the Malaysian state.

We hope that the true Hindraf leaders will stay faithful to their just cause and correctly identify the primary role of capitalism and the state in causing racial oppression suffered by the Indian masses. The struggle against the Malaysian state can only succeed if it is anti-racist.

At the same time, Hindraf must also work alongside other campaigns for justice, democracy and human rights. We can only mobilize the whole masses if we fight on all fronts, against all oppressions and against the divisions within the masses. As the Black Panthers said in the sixties:

“We do not fight racism with racism…
    We fight racism with solidarity”.






Dr Kua Kia Soong
Director of SUARAM